Federal Budget for FY25 Released

On March 11, 2024, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the Public Budget Database in the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2025. 

Here is how headline budget estimates for the upcoming FY 2024 fiscal year have changed since the release of the FY 2024 budget a year ago in Winter 2023.

Federal Budget Changes for 2024

$ billion	Estimate for 2024 in FY2024 Budget	Estimate for 2024 in FY2025 Budget	Change
Federal Outlays	$6,371.8	$6,940.9	+$569.1
Federal Receipts	$4,802.5	$5,081.6	+$279.1
Federal Deficit	$1,569.4	$1,859.4	+$290.0

You can see line item changes from budget to budget here. You can compare budget estimates with actuals here.

Account level spending estimates through FY 2029 come from the Outlays table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on March 11, 2024.

Account level budget authority estimates through FY 2029 come from the Budget Authority table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on March 11, 2024. 

Agency Debt Update for 2023

On March 11, 2024, usgovernmentspending.com updated its data for agency debt from the Federal Reserve Board database. Data is now available for the period 1945-2023. You can see our Agency Debt page here, and a comparison with the official "on-the-books" debt here.

For the period 2024 to 2029 usgovernmentspending.com has "guesstimated" the agency debt, assuming that it increases at the same rate as it did in 2022 to 2023.

See "Federal 'Agency Debt' Added" for explanation of  data derivation.

Data is downloaded from the FRB data download page for "Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1)" as follows.

1. Select a preformatted data package: "L.211 (A) Agency- and GSE-Backed Securities, n.s.a."
2. Click: Format package.
3. Select: 100 years.
4. Click: Go to Download.
5. Click: Download File.

US GDP for 2023 Updated

On January 19, 2024 usgovernmentspending.com updated its GDP series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, under "Supplemental Information and Data" including nominal US GDP for third quarter 2023 of $25.464 trillion and real US GDP  for third quarter 2023 of $20.015 trillion in 2017 dollars. Real GDP is now expressed in 2017 dollars.

Up to now, usgovernmentspending.com has shown GDP for calendar years. But the OMB forecast for US GDP in Table 10.1 - Gross Domestic Product and Deflators Used in the Historical Tables uses GDP for the US federal government's fiscal year that ends every year on September 30. So we have changed GDP to the US fiscal year.

Thus GDP, real and nominal, looks like this:

• US GDP source from 1790 to 1928 is calendar GDP from measuringworth.com.
• US GDP source from 1929 to 1946 is calendar GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, under "Supplemental Information and Data"
• US GDP source from 1947 to the present is third quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, under "Supplemental Information and Data."

usgovernmentspending.com computes inflation rate as:

((This Year GDP - Last Year GDP)/Last Year GDP - (This Year Real GDP - Last Year Real GDP)/Last Year Real GDP)*100.

Medicaid Update for FY 2022

On December 13, 2023, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) published its annual report on National Health Expenditures and its NHE Tables includes data on Medicaid from 1960 to 2022. On January 12, 2024, usgovernmentspending.com updated its Medicaid data.

Item	2022 Estimate	2022 Actual
Federal Medicaid	$591.9 bn	$591.9 bn
State Medicaid (net)	$274.7 bn	$213.8 bn
Total Medicaid	$866.6 bn	$805.7 bn

The federal Medicaid number comes from the Federal Budget Subfunction 558: Grants to states for Medicaid. The state contribution comes from the NHE Tables.

usgovernmentspending.com publishes "guesstimates" of state and local spending from the latest year published by the Census Bureau (currently FY 2022) to the last year in the Historical Tables of the federal budget (for the FY 2024 budget that is 2028). So we have developed "guesstimates" of Medicaid spending going out to 2028, assuming that the overall Medicaid spending increases at the same rate as the federal "Grants to States for Medicaid" increases.

National Health Expenditure data is updated each year in mid December.