Saturday, August 2, 2014

Medicare/Social Security Trustee Reports Released

On July 28, 2014, the Center for Medicare Services released its annual Medicare Trustees Report, which projects Medicare spending out into the 2080s.  As in the past, the report shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the Medicare Outlook here based on data in the 2014 Medicare Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected Medicare Trustee forecasts going back to 2005.

On July 28, 2014, the Social Security Administration released its annual OASDI Trustees Report, which projects Social Security spending out into the 2080s.  As in the past, the report shows that Social Security spending will max out at about 6 percent of GDP.

UsGovernmentspending.com is publishing for the first time a chart of the Social Security Outlook here based on data in the 2014 OASDI Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view OASDI Trustee forecasts for 2005 and 1997.

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

CBO Long-term Outlook 2014

On July 15, 2014, the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook, which projects federal spending and revenue out into the 2080s.  As before, the CBO study shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the CBO Long Term Budget Outlook here.  You can download the data and also view CBO Long Term Budget Outlooks going back to 1999.

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Gross State Product Update for 2013

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2013 on June 11, 2014.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2013 and projected nominal and real GSP through 2019 for each state using the projected national GDP numbers from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2014 Budget and the historical GDP data series from the BEA as a baseline.

As before we have projected individual state GSPs out to 2019 by applying a factor to reflect each state's deviation from the national growth rate. (E.g. In 2013 the national real GDP expanded by 1.9 percent. But North Dakota grew by 9.7 percent, a deviation of nearly 7 percent. The deviation is reduced by 40 percent for each year after 2013, making the assumption that each state will slowly revert to the national norm.)

Usgovernmentspending.com displays individual state data going back to 1957, but BEA has nominal GSP data going back to only 1963, and real GSP data going back to 1987.  Also the 1987-1997 real GSP data is in 1997 dollars, not 2009 dollars like the 1997-present data, and the pre-1997 data is based on a different model than post 1997 data.  For the pre-1997 data we have factored it to remove any "bumps" over the 1997 transition.

Because usgovernmentspending.com needs GSP data to provide e.g., spending as a percent of GDP, we have extended the two BEA GSP data series back to 1957.  We have assumed that the rate of change of GSP prior to 1963 is the same as the national GDP and we have assumed that the rate of change of real GSP prior to 1987 is the same as the nation real GDP growth rate.

Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2013 GSP growth rates.