Update to State and Local Data: FY 2007

On October 4, 2009, usgovernmentspending.com updated its database with the latest data release on State and Local Government Spending and Revenue from the US Census Bureau. The latest data is for fiscal year 2007. Previously the data displayed for 2007 was "guesstimated" based on a crude projection of spending and revenue levels from 2006.

This includes data for individual states and data and aggregate spending and revenue data for all states.

Here is the current status of state and local government spending and revenue data.

• Data up to and including 2007 is actual data reported to and published by the Census Bureau.
• State tax data for 2008 is actual data reported to and published by the Census Bureau in State Government Tax Collections.
• Data for 2008 (except state tax data for 2008) and subsequent years is "guesstimated" by projecting the change in each spending or revenue item between 2006 and 2007 forward. Maximum change is 15 percent. Minimum change is zero percent.

Caveat on "Guesstimated" Data

The crude "guesstimation" that usgovernmentspending.com applies to data after 2007 (the last year for which the US Census Bureau provides data) is a way to get a rough look at total government spending in the present year and the near future.

But in the current recession state and local spending is probably higher than "guesstimated" and revenue is probably significantly lower than "guesstimated."

The US Census Bureau report of State Government Tax Collections for 2009, scheduled for release in March 2010, will be the first look at the effect of the recession on state government revenues.

Upcoming Data Updates

The Census Bureau will update State and Local Government Finances (i.e. spending and revenue data) for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in November 2009.

The Census Bureau will release State Government Finances for 2008 (i.e. spending and revenue) in late Fall 2009.

The Census Bureau will release State Government Tax Collections for 2009 in March 2010.

The Census Bureau will release State and Local Government Finances for 2008 (i.e. spending and revenue) in Summer 2010.

OMB Mid-Session Review

On August 25, 2009, The US Office of Management and Budget issued a Mid-Session Review of the Federal Budget. It showed sharply higher spending and lower revenues for FY 2010 than published in the full budget published in May 2009, as follows:

Office of Management and Budget Mid-Session Review ($ billion)
OMB Estimates of Federal Budget	FY 2009	FY 2010
Receipts (May)	2,157	2,332
Receipts (August)	2,074	2,264
Difference	-83	-68
Outlays (May)	3,998	3,591
Outlays (August)	3,563	3,766
Difference	-345	+175
Deficit (May)	1,841	1,258
Deficit (August)	1,580	1,502
Difference	-261	+244

The new estimates show a deterioration in receipts, and a sharp decline in the expected spending for the remainder of FY 2009. But FY 2010 spending is expected to be higher, thus decreasing the deficit for 2009 and increasing it for 2010.

Update: State and Local Spending

Up till now, usgovernmentspending.com and usgovernmentrevenue.com have shown state and local spending and revenue prior to 1992 as combined state-and-local numbers. The Census Bureau provides tables of state-and-local spending and revenue in its annual Statistical Abstract and in the retrospective Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970.

But the Census Bureau also publishes in those publications tables of separate state spending and revenue and local spending and revenue. usgovernmentspending.com has now loaded the separate state and local spending from 1902 to 1991 into usgovernmentspending.com. usgovernmentrevenue.com has now loaded the separate state and local revenue from 1902 to 1991 into usgovernmentrevenue.com.

There are, however, gaps in the record. For about 15 years between 1971 and 1984 there are no detailed records of spending by function broken down into state and local separately. And between 1971 and 1991 there are no records of utility spending and revenue broken down into state and local separately. In addition, of course, the Census Bureau only reports for even-years between 1932 and 1952, and prior to 1932 only reports for 1902, 1913, 1922, and 1927. So there is quite a lot of "interpolation."

You can tell which numbers are "actual" and which are "interpolated" in the tables of annual spending/revenue under the NUMBERS tab. Actual numbers are shown in blue and bold. Interpolated numbers are blue, bold, and italic.