Saturday, October 15, 2016

Federal Deficit and Outlay Actuals for FY16

On October 14, 2016, the US Treasury reported in its Monthly Treasury Statement (and xls) for September that the federal deficit for FY 2016 ending September 30 was $587 billion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the FY 2017 federal budget published in February 2016:

Federal Finances
FY 2016 Outcomes
Receipts $3,336$3,267
Deficit$616$587 now shows the new numbers for total FY 2016 outlays and receipts on its Estimate vs. Actual page.

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes ""Table 4: Receipts of the United States Government, September 2015 and Other Periods." This table of receipts by source is used for to post federal receipt actuals for FY 2016.

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes "Table 9. Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government, September 2016 and Other Periods".   This table of outlays by function makes it possible for to estimate actual outlays by "subfunction" for FY 2016 by factoring budgeted amounts by the difference between budgeted and actual "function" amounts where actual outlays by subfunction cannot be gleaned from the Monthly Treasury Statement.

Final detailed FY 2016 numbers will not appear on until the FY 2018 federal budget is published in February 2017 with the actual outlays for FY 2016 in Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction.

Sunday, September 25, 2016

State FY16 Tax Update

On September 25, 2016 updated FY2016 state revenue with quarterly tax data released by the US Census Bureau on September 20, 2016.  Local tax data was updated by assuming that local taxes for 2016 changed by the same percent as state taxes of the same type.

State and local spending projections for FY2017 to FY2021 have been reestimated using the "Guesstimate" method.

Friday, September 16, 2016

Agency Debt Update for 2015 has updated its data for agency debt from the Federal Reserve Board database. Data is now available for the period 1945-2015. You can see our Agency Debt page here, and a comparison with the official "on-the-books" debt here.

For the period 2016 to 2021 has "guesstimated" the agency debt, assuming that it increases at the same rate as it did in 2014 to 2015.

See "Federal 'Agency Debt' Added" for explanation of  data derivation. Data is downloaded from the FRB data download page.