Monday, February 10, 2020

Federal Budget for FY21 Released

On February 10, 2020, we updated with the numbers from the historical tables in the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2021. Actual revenue for FY 2019 and estimated revenue through FY 2025 come from Historical Tables 2.1, 2.4, and 2.5. Actual spending for FY 2019 and estimated spending at the subfunction level through FY 2025 come from Table 3.2. Budget Authority estimates come from Table 5.1, federal debt estimates come from Table 7.1 and GDP estimates come from Table 10.1. Intergovernmental transfers come from Table 12.3.

Here is how headline budget estimates for the upcoming FY 2021 fiscal year have changed since the release of the FY 2020 budget a year ago in Winter 2019.

FY 2020 Federal Budget Changes Since 2019
$ billionEstimate for 2020
in FY2020 Budget
Estimate for 2020
in FY2021 Budget
Federal Outlays$4,745.6$4,789.8+$44.2
Federal Receipts$3,644.8$3,706.3+$61.5
Federal Deficit$1,100.8$1,083.4-$17.4

You can see line item changes from budget to budget here. You can compare budget estimates with actuals here.

Account level spending estimates through FY 2025 come from the Outlays table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on on February 10, 2020.

Account level budget authority estimates through FY 2025 come from the Budget Authority table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on on February 10, 2020.

Monday, December 30, 2019

US, State Population Update for 2019

On December 30, 2019 the US Census Bureau released its US national and state population estimates for July 1, 2019.  On December 30, 2019 updated its US and state population data as follows:
  • We updated 2010-2019 population data for US and states using data from US Census Bureau Population Estimates: Vintage 2019, State Population Totals, in file nst-est2019-01.xlsx.
  • We projected 2020 thru 2025 for the states assuming population rate change for 2018-19.
  • We updated 2020 thru 2025 for US only using the percentage projections from US Census Bureau National Population Projections in file np2017-t1.xlsx. uses population data in computing per capita spending and revenue data. You can see per capita spending data in a chart here, and in a table of spending here.

You can check the data update schedule here.

Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Medicaid Update for FY 2018

On December 10, 2019, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) published its annual report on National Health Expenditures and its NHE Tables includes data on Medicaid from 1966 to 2018. On December 10, 2019, updated its Medicaid data.

Federal Medicaid$389.2 bn$389.2 bn 
State Medicaid$215.1 bn$208.2 bn 
Total Medicaid$604.3 bn$597.4 bn 

The federal Medicaid number comes from the Federal Budget Subfunction 558: Grants to states for Medicaid. The state contribution comes from the NHE Tables. publishes "guesstimates" of state and local spending from the latest year published by the Census Bureau (currently FY 2017) to the last year in the Historical Tables of the federal budget (for the FY 2020 budget that is 2024). So we have developed "guesstimates" of Medicaid spending going out to 2024, assuming that the overall Medicaid spending increases at the same rate as the federal "Grants to States for Medicaid" increases.

National Health Expenditure data is updated each year in mid December.