Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Gross State Product for 2018

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2018 on May 1, 2019.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2018 and projected nominal and real GSP through 2024 for each state using the projected national GDP numbers from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2020 Budget and the historical GDP data series from the BEA as a baseline.

As before we have projected individual state GSPs out to 2024 by applying a factor to reflect each state's deviation from the national growth rate. (E.g. In 2014 the national real GDP expanded by 2.4 percent. But North Dakota grew by 6.3 percent, a deviation of nearly 4 percent. The deviation is reduced by 40 percent for each year after 2014, making the assumption that each state will slowly revert to the national norm.)

Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2018 GSP growth rates.

Monday, May 20, 2019

Federal Revenue by State for 2017 and 2018

On May 20, 2019, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from "SOI Tax Stats - Gross Collections, by Type of Tax and State, Fiscal Year - IRS Data Book Table 5" of the IRS Data Book for 2017 and 2018.  The data can be viewed on the Federal Revenue by State page here.

Friday, May 3, 2019

State Finances for FY2017

On May 3, 2019 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2017 here, including spending and revenue for each individual state and for all states combined.

On May 3, 2019 we updated state and local spending and revenue data for FY2018 through FY2024 as follows:
  1. We replaced "guesstimatedstate spending and revenue data for FY2017 using the new FY2017 data from the Census Bureau.
  2. We replaced "guesstimatedlocal spending and revenue data for FY 20176 with estimates for each spending and revenue category using the trends in state finances between FY 2016 and FY 2017.
  3. We replaced "guesstimatedstate revenue data for FY 2018 with data from the Census Bureau's quarterly state tax summary here.
  4. We replaced "guesstimatedlocal revenue data for FY 2018 with estimates for each category using trends for each category of state revenue between FY 2016 and FY 2017.
  5. We replaced "guesstimated" state and local spending and revenue for FY 2018 thru FY2024 with new guesstimates based on the latest Census Bureau data for FY 2017 state finances and FY 2018 quarterly tax data.

State Finances for FY2017
Estimate vs. Actual

$ billionGuesstimateActual
Spending$1,752$1,769
Revenue$1,520$1,894

We expect the Census Bureau to release local spending and revenue data for FY 2017 not earlier than Summer 2019.