Tuesday, September 17, 2019

State FY19 Taxes Update

On September 17, 2019 usgovernmentspending.com updated FY2019 state revenue with quarterly tax data released by the US Census Bureau on September 17, 2019.  Local tax data was updated by assuming that local taxes for 2019 changed by the same percent as state taxes of the same type.

$ billionFY2019
State Income Tax Revenue$480$466
Total State Revenue$2,108$2,071

State and local spending projections for FY2020 to FY2024 have been reestimated using the "Guesstimate" method.

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

CBO Long Term Budget Outlook for 2019

On June 25, 2019 the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook for 2019, which projects federal spending and revenue out into the 2040s.  As before, the CBO study shows that federal health-care programs and interest costs will eat the budget, with federal spending exceeding 28 percent GDP by mid century while federal revenue stays below 20 percent GDP.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the CBO Long Term Budget Outlook here.  You can download the data and also view CBO Long Term Budget Outlooks going back to 1999.

Friday, May 31, 2019

Medicare Part C Updated from 2019 Trustees Report

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its estimate of Medicare Part C, the Medicare Advantage program using data in the Medicare Trustees Report of 2018 that was released April 22, 2019. You can see the results here.

The Budget of the United States Government reports Medicare outlays as a single line item, subfunction 571 in Historical Table 3.2, but Usgovernmentspending.com shows a breakdown of the Medicare program into its constituent parts, as follows:
  1. Part A: Hospital Insurance
  2. Part B: Supplementary Medical Insurance
  3. Part C: Medicare Advantage
  4. Part D: SMI Drug Plan
These data are constructed from data in the Public Budget Database and Table IV.C2 in the Medicare Trustees Report 2019 which reports the payments made to private Medicare health plans and the projected payments in future years.

You can inspect the extracted data from Medicare Trustees Reports Table IV.C2 here. And see the blog entry that introduced the Medicare Part C breakout to usgovernmentspending.com here.

Here is a breakdown of Medicare budgeted outlays for 2021 before and after today's update.

Outlays in
percent GDP
Part APart BPart CPart DTotal
FY2021 before update0.870.731.080.423.10% GDP
FY2021 after update0.840.711.140.423.11% GDP

The update indicates a 5.6 percent increase in Medicare Part C over the previous estimate in the Medicare Trustees Report in 2017.