Tuesday, July 25, 2017

CBO Long Term Budget Outlook for 2017

On March 30, 2017 the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook for 2017, which projects federal spending and revenue out into the 2040s.  As before, the CBO study shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget, with federal spending exceeding 28 percent GDP by mid century while federal revenue stays below 20 percent GDP.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the CBO Long Term Budget Outlook here.  You can download the data and also view CBO Long Term Budget Outlooks going back to 1999.

Sunday, July 23, 2017

Medicare Part C Updated From 2017 Trustee Report

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its estimate of Medicare Part C, the Medicare Advantage program using data in the Medicare Trustees Report of 2017 that was released July 13, 2017. You can see the results here.

The Budget of the United States Government reports Medicare outlays as a single line item, subfunction 571 in Historical Table 3.2, but Usgovernmentspending.com shows a breakdown of the Medicare program into its constituent parts, as follows:
  1. Part A: Hospital Insurance
  2. Part B: Supplementary Medical Insurance
  3. Part C: Medicare Advantage
  4. Part D: SMI Drug Plan
These data are constructed from data in the Public Budget Database and Table IV.C2 in the Medicare Trustees Report 2017. You can inspect the extracted data from Medicare Trustees Reports Table IV.C2 here.

See the blog entry that introduced Medicare Part C here.

Medicare/Social Security 2017 Trustee Reports Released

On July 13, 2017, the Center for Medicare Services released its annual Medicare Trustees Report, which projects Medicare spending out to 2090.  As in the past, the report shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the Medicare Outlook here based on data in the 2017 Medicare Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected Medicare Trustee forecasts going back to 2005.

On July 13, 2017, the Social Security Administration released its annual OASDI Trustees Report, which projects Social Security spending out to 2090.  As in the past, the report shows that Social Security spending will max out at about 6 percent of GDP.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the Social Security Outlook here based on data in the 2017 OASDI Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected OASDI Trustee forecasts going back to 1997.

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

Final Federal Budget for FY18 Released

On May 23, 2017, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the historical tables in the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2018. Actual revenue for FY 2016 and estimated revenue through FY 2022 come from Historical Tables 2.1, 2.4, and 2.5. Actual spending for FY 2016 and estimated spending at the subfunction level through FY 2022 come from Table 3.2. Budget Authority estimates come from Table 5.1, federal debt estimates come from Table 7.1 and GDP estimates come from Table 10.1. Intergovernmental transfers come from Table 12.3.

Here is how headline budget estimates for the upcoming FY 2018 fiscal year have changed since the release of the FY 2017 budget a year ago in 2016.

FY 2018 Federal Budget Changes Since 2016
$ billionEstimate in
FY17 Budget
Estimate in
FY18 Budget
Change
Federal Outlays$4,352.2$4,094.5-$257.7
Federal Receipts$3,898.6$3,654.3-$244.3
Federal Deficit$453.6$440.2-$13.4

You can see line item changes from budget to budget here. You can compare budget estimates with actuals here.

Account level spending estimates through FY 2022 come from the Outlays table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on May 23, 2017.

Account level budget authority estimates through FY 2022 come from the Budget Authority table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on May 23, 2017.

Saturday, May 20, 2017

State Finances for FY2015

On May 11, 2017 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2015 here, including spending and revenue for each individual state and for all states combined.

On May 20, 2017 we updated state and local spending and revenue data for FY2015 through FY2021 as follows:
  1. We replaced "guesstimatedstate spending and revenue data for FY2014 using the new FY2015 data from the Census Bureau.
  2. We replaced "guesstimatedlocal spending and revenue data for FY 2015 with estimates for each spending and revenue category using the trends in state finances between FY 2014 and FY 2015.
  3. We replaced "guesstimatedstate revenue data for FY 2016 with data from the Census Bureau's quarterly state tax summary here.
  4. We replaced "guesstimatedlocal revenue data for FY 2016 with estimates for each category using trends for each category of state revenue between FY 2014 and FY 2015.
  5. We replaced "guesstimated" state and local spending and revenue for FY 2016 thru FY2021 with new guesstimates based on the latest Census Bureau data for FY 2015 state finances and FY 2016 quarterly tax data.

State Finances for FY2015
Estimate vs. Actual

$ billionGuesstimateActual
Spending$1,608$1,677
Revenue$1,874$1,599

We expect the Census Bureau to release local spending and revenue data for FY 2015 not earlier than Summer 2017.

Thursday, May 18, 2017

Gross State Product Data for 2016

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2016 on May 11, 2017.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2016 and projected nominal and real GSP through 2021 for each state using the projected national GDP numbers from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2017 Budget and the historical GDP data series from the BEA as a baseline. We will update the numbers with new budget GDP projections when the FY2018 budget is released.

As before we have projected individual state GSPs out to 2021 by applying a factor to reflect each state's deviation from the national growth rate. (E.g. In 2014 the national real GDP expanded by 2.4 percent. But North Dakota grew by 6.3 percent, a deviation of nearly 4 percent. The deviation is reduced by 40 percent for each year after 2014, making the assumption that each state will slowly revert to the national norm.)

Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2016 GSP growth rates.

Monday, April 24, 2017

US Gross Output for 2016 Released

On April 24, 2017, usgovernmentspending.com updated its Gross Output series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, including nominal Gross Output for calendar 2016 of $32.189 trillion. Gross Output for some years previous to 2016 have been revised by BEA.

usgovernmentspending.com now reports Gross Output on its Spending Details page and permits charting of spending and revenue as "percent of Gross Output".

The Gross Output series extends back to 1947.

Friday, April 7, 2017

Federal Revenue by State for 2015

On April 7, 2017, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from "SOI Tax Stats - Gross Collections, by Type of Tax and State, Fiscal Year - IRS Data Book Table 5" of the IRS Data Book for 2015.  The data can be viewed on the Federal Revenue by State page here.

Agency Debt Update for 2016

usgovernmentspending.com has updated its data for agency debt from the Federal Reserve Board database. Data is now available for the period 1945-2016. You can see our Agency Debt page here, and a comparison with the official "on-the-books" debt here.

For the period 2017 to 2022 usgovernmentspending.com has "guesstimated" the agency debt, assuming that it increases at the same rate as it did in 2015 to 2016.

See "Federal 'Agency Debt' Added" for explanation of  data derivation.

Data is downloaded from the FRB data download page for "Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1)" as follows.

  1. Select a preformatted data package: "L.211 (A) Agency- and GSE-Backed Securities, n.s.a."
  2. Click: Format package.
  3. Select: 100 years.
  4. Click: Go to Download.
  5. Click: Download File.

Thursday, April 6, 2017

US GDP for 2016 Updated

On April 6, 2016, usgovernmentspending.com updated its GDP series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, including nominal GDP for calendar 2016 of $18.569 trillion and real GDP  for calendar 2016 of $16.662 trillion in 2009 dollars. GDP for some years previous to 2016 have been revised by BEA.

Usgovernmentspending.com uses the BEA GDP data series from 1929 to the present and measuringworth.com as its GDP source from 1790 to 1928.

Thursday, March 16, 2017

FY18 Budget Blueprint Released

On March 16, 2018 the Trump administration issued a Budget Blueprint outlining proposed changes to "discretionary" spending for Fiscal Year 2018. The following table shows the major changes to Budget Authority in excess of $2 billion per agency.

AgencyFY18 Change
in $ billion
Agriculture-4.7
Defense+52.4
Education-9.2
Health and
Human Services
-12.6
Homeland
Security
+2.8
HUD-6.2
Justice-4.0
Labor-2.5
State and Intl Aid-10.9
Veterans+4.4
EPA-2.6

Because usgovernmentspending spending data is based on Historical Table 3.2, it shows spending by function rather than by agency. Until Table 3.2 is published in the final version of the FY18 budget we cannot exactly predict how the Table 3.2 numbers will change at the subfunction level.

But we have applied the Budget Blueprint budget authority changes into the budgeted FY18 outlays by guessing the application of agency level changes to subfunction changes to give a rough feeling of what the Trump changes look like. You can check out what is going on here or here.

The numbers will change when the final FY18 federal budget numbers come out.

Thursday, January 19, 2017

The Feds Borrow More Than The "Deficit"

People naturally assume that the annual Deficit is the total that the Federal government borrows each year. Actually this is not so. The Deficit is simply the difference between Federal Outlays and Federal Receipts. Usually, the Feds borrow a lot more than the official Deficit.

Like below, in $ billion:

YearGross
Debt
Debt
Increase
Federal
Deficit
Other
Borrow
2000562924-236259
20057905551318232
20101352916531294359
20111476412351300-64
20121605112871087200
201316719669680-11
2014177951075485590
201518120326438-113
2016195371417587830

We have provided the difference between the Debt increase and the Deficit for each year under "Other Borrowings" on the Spending Details page. To Recap:

Other Borrowings = (Increase in Federal Debt) - (Official Deficit)