Saturday, December 22, 2012

US, State Population Update for 2012

On December 20, 2012 the US Census Bureau released its state population estimate for 2012.  On December 22, 2012 usgovernmentspending.com updated its US and state population data as follows:
  • We updated 2012 and 2012 population data for US and states using data from US Census Bureau Population Estimates: vintage 2012 in file NST-EST2012-01.xls.
  • We projected 2013 thru 2018 for US and states assuming population rate change for 2011-12.
  • We updated 2001 thru 2010 US and population data using data from US Census Bureau intercensal estimates in ST-EST00INT-01.xls.
usgovernmentspending.com uses population data in computing per capita spending and revenue data.  You can see per capita spending data in a chart here, and in a table of spending here.

You can check the data update schedule here.

Friday, December 7, 2012

State Finances for FY2011

On December 6, 2012 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2011 here, including spending and revenue for each individual state and for all states combined.

On December 7, 2012 we updated state and local spending and revenue data for FY2011 through FY2017 as follows:
  1. We replaced "guesstimated" state spending and revenue data for FY2011 using the new FY2011 data from the Census Bureau.
  2. We replaced "guesstimated" local spending and revenue data for FY 2011 with estimates for each spending and revenue category using the trends in state finances between FY 2010 and FY 2011.
  3. We replaced "guesstimated" state revenue data for FY 2012 with data from the Census Bureau's quarterly state tax summary here.
  4. We replaced "guesstimated" local revenue data for FY 2012 with estimates for each category using trends for each category of state revenue between FY 2011 and FY 2012.
  5. We replaced "guesstimated" state and local spending and revenue for FY 2013 thru FY2017 with new guesstimates based on the latest Census Bureau data for FY 2011 state finances and FY 2012 quarterly tax data.
The Census Bureau expects to release local spending and revenue data for FY 2011 in Summer 2013.

Note:  "Business and Other Revenue" continues to show large gains as state pension funds extend their recovery from the Crash of 2008.

Sunday, October 7, 2012

US Deficit for FY12


On October 6, 2012, the Congressional Budget Office estimated in its Monthly Budget Review for September that the federal deficit for FY12 ending September 30 was $1.09 trillion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the federal budget published in February 2012:

UPDATE 10/12/2012: Official Treasury numbers added below.  See press release here.

Federal Finances
FY12 Outcomes
Budget
billions
CBO
billions
Treasury
billions
Receipts $2,469  $2,450  $2,449
Outlays$3,795$3,540$3,538
Deficit$1,327$1,090$1,089

The US Treasury will announce announced on October 12, 2012 the official government report on FY12 outcomes later in October.

usfederalbudget.us now shows the new numbers for total FY12 outlays and receipts on its Estimate vs. Actual page, but will not update detailed FY2012 numbers until the FY2014 federal budget is published in February 2013.

Saturday, October 6, 2012

State Tax FY12 Update

On October 6, 2012 usgovernmentspending.com updated FY2012 state revenue with quarterly tax data from the US Census Bureau.  Local tax data was updated by assuming that local taxes for 2012  changed by the same percent as state taxes of the same type.

"Guesstimated" spending and revenue for state and local government for FY 2011 through FY 2017 was updated using the method described in "Change to 'Guesstimated' State and Local Spending", by projecting the rate of change for each spending or revenue item between FY 2009 and FY 2010 forwards to FY 2017.

The following table shows "guesstimated" US state and local total spending and total revenue before and after the change.

Spending
$ billion
FY 2011FY 2012FY 2013
Before3,0633,0673,167
After3,1903,2433,291

Revenue
$ billion
FY 2011FY 2012FY 2013
Before2,5492,6192,748
After2,5472,5532,613

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

State and Local Update for 2010


On September 26, 2012 usgovernmentspending.com updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2010 using the newly released Census Bureau State and Local Government Finances for FY 2010.  This includes state and local spending for the United States as a whole and individual states and the District of Columbia.

State and local spending and revenue for FY2010 are now actual historical spending as reported by the Census Bureau.  Previously state spending and revenue for FY2010 was actual and local spending and revenue was estimated.

Also updated were state and local finances for 2008 and 2009 using newly released Census Bureau revised data.

Friday, September 7, 2012

Spending Category Definitions


Here's what's included in the top-line categories of government spending. You can also drill down here to look at examples.
  • Pensions:  Social Security and government pensions.

  • Health Care: Medicare and Medicaid, public health, medical research.

  • Education: Education, K-12 thru university.

  • Defense: Pentagon, veterans, State Department, foreign aid.

  • Welfare: Cash welfare, food stamps, unemployment benefits, workers comp, housing (but not Medicaid).

  • Protection: Police, fire, courts, prisons.

  • Transportation: Highways and mass transit.

  • General Government: executive, legislative, finance, general services.

  • Other Spending: Research, economic development, agriculture, energy, environment.

Revenue Category Definitions

Here's what's included in the top-line categories of government revenue. You can also drill down here to look at examples.
  • Income Taxes: Individual and corporate income taxes.

  • Social Insurance Taxes: FICA taxes, unemployment, disability taxes.

  • Ad-valorem Taxes: Sales and property taxes.

  • Fees and Charges: Fees for government services other than taxes.

  • Business and Other Revenue: Revenue from government businesses such as liquor stores and utilities.

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Pre-1997 Real State GDP Revised

Up to now, real state GDP prior to 1997 has been displayed in 1997 dollars as published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).  But this creates a discontinuity in the year 1997 on the state page; pre-1997 real state GDP is published in1997 dollars and post-1996 real state GDP is published in 2005 dollars.  There is a bump in GDP anyway because the BEA changes its method of computing state GDP in 1997 from "SIC" to "NAICS".

Real state GDP values prior to 1997 on usgovernmentspending.com have now been updated with a factor to convert from 1997 real dollars to 2005 real dollars.  The factor used is (9856166/8284432) which is the ratio of US real GDP for 1997 published by BEA using the NAICS method divided by the US real GDP for 1997 published by BEA using the SIC method.  There is still a bit of a bump for many states for 1997 real state GDP growth.


Friday, June 22, 2012

Gross State Product Update for 2011


The US Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2011 on June 5, 2012.
Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2011 and projected nominal and real GSP through 2017 for each state using the projected national GDP growth rates from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2013 Budget as a baseline.
As before we have projected individual state GSPs by applying a factor to reflect each state's deviation from the national growth rate. (E.g. In 2011 the national real GDP expanded by 1.7 percent. But North Dakota grew by 7.6 percent, a deviation of nearly 6 percent. The deviation is reduced by 40 percent for each year after 2011, assuming that each state will slowly revert to the national norm.)
Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2011 GSP growth rates.

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

CBO Long Term Budget Outlook Updated

On June 5, 2012, the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook, which projects federal spending and revenue out into the 2080s.  As before, the CBO study shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the CBO Long Term Budget Outlook here.  You can download the data and also view CBO Long Term Budget Outlooks going back to 2005.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

US GDP for 2011 Updated

On April 25, 2012, usgovernmentspending.com updated its GDP series with the latest data from measuringworth.com, including nominal GDP for calendar 2011 of $15.094 trillion and a real GDP in 2005 dollars for calendar 2011 of $13.315 trillion.

Usgovernmentspending.com uses measuringworth.com as its GDP source because the data series for nominal and real GDP go back to 1790.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Budget Data Back to 1986 Now Available

You can now examine federal government budget data on usgovernmentspending.com going back to 1986.

Up to now, usgovernmentspending.com has featured federal budget data available online from the US Government Printing Office.  Principally, usgovernmentspending.com gets this data from the Historical Tables supplement to the federal budget, from Tables 2.1, 2.4, 2.5, 3.2, 7.1 and 10.1.  These data on the GPO site go back to the 1996 budget released in February 1995, and that's all that usgovernmentspending.com lets you see.

Usgovernmentspending.com provides two ways for you to look at this data in its Budget feature.

  1. You can look at the six years of estimated spending in a single budget here
  2. You can look at the spending estimates for a single year in six successive budgets here and compare them with the actual spending.

The historical data series published in the Historical Tables start at various dates between 1934 and 1962 and, when published in each budget, feature actual data up to the fiscal year that ended prior to the publication of the budget. In addition to the historical data, the tables include six years of estimated data for spending and revenue, beginning with the budget year in progress at the time the budget is published and out five years into the future.  The OMB first started publishing the six-year estimates in the 1986 federal budget.

We have now added the estimated spending and revenue data from the Historical Tables for the budgets from 1986 to 1995.  Most of the data is available on PDF files at the FRASER database at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis here.  Data from the 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, and 1995 budgets was copied from paper records and is now available in PDF files on the usgovernmentspending.com site.

Here is how to access the raw estimated data in the Historical Tables for 1986 - 1995:
Here are links to individual federal budgets at the GPO site:
See also Table of Data Sources by Year.

LAST UPDATED: 02-18-2013

    Friday, March 30, 2012

    Updated with House FY13 Budget Resolution

    On March 30, 2012, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the House Budget Resolution for FY13 prepared by the House Budget Committee, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), chairman.  The site now shows data from the current Ryan RY13 Budget Resolution and also the  Ryan FY12 Budget Resolution.

    You can view and download data on the Ryan Budget page here.  You can compare the Ryan Budget with the president's budget here.

    Thursday, March 22, 2012

    Federal Taxes by State Updated

    On March 22, 2012, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from "Table 5. Gross Collections, by Type of Tax and State, Fiscal Year 2011" of the IRS Data Book for 2011.  The data can be viewed on the Federal Revenue by State page here.

    Sunday, February 12, 2012

    Federal Budget FY 13 Released

    On February 13, 2012, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the historical tables in the FY13 federal budget. Actual revenue for FY 2011 and estimated revenue through FY 2017 come from Tables 2.1, 2.4, and 2.5. Actual spending for FY 2011 and estimated spending at the subfunction level through FY 2017 comes from Table 3.2. Federal debt estimates come from Table 7.1 and GDP estimates come from Table 10.1.

    You can see you each line item changes from budget to budget here. You can compare budget estimates with actuals here.

    Account level spending estimates through FY 2017 come from the outlays table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on March 2, 2012.