State Spending for 2023

In March 2025 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2023 here and here, including spending and revenue for each individual state and for all states combined.

On June 26, 2025 we updated state and local spending and revenue data for FY2023 through FY2029 as follows:

1. We replaced "guesstimated" state spending and revenue data for FY2023 using the new FY2022 data from the Census Bureau.
2. We replaced "guesstimated" local spending and revenue data for FY 2021 with estimates for each spending and revenue category using the trends in state finances between FY 2021 and FY 2022.
3. We replaced "guesstimated" state revenue data for FY 2023 with data from the Census Bureau's quarterly state tax summary here.
4. We replaced "guesstimated" local revenue data for FY 2023 with estimates for each category using trends for each category of state revenue between FY 2021 and FY 2022.
5. We replaced "guesstimated" state and local spending and revenue for FY 2023 thru FY2029 with new guesstimates based on the latest Census Bureau data for FY 2022 state finances and FY 2023 quarterly tax data.

But there is a problem.

In recent years the Census Bureau has reported Medicaid Vendor Payments to States under item code E74 and other welfare payments under E75 and E79. But now they are all combined under item code E79. This is a problem because usgovernmentspending.com reports Medicaid and the rest of Welfare separately. For now, we are  "guesstimating" E74, E75 and E79 pending release of the combined state and local finances later this year.

We expect the Census Bureau to release local spending and revenue data for FY 2022 not earlier than Summer 2024.

Agency Debt Update for 2024

On June 24, 2025, usgovernmentspending.com updated its data for agency debt from the Federal Reserve Board database. Data is now available for the period 1945-2024. You can see our Agency Debt page here, and a comparison with the official "on-the-books" debt here.

For the period 2024 to 2029 usgovernmentspending.com has "guesstimated" the agency debt, assuming that it increases at the same rate as it did in 2022 to 2023.

See "Federal 'Agency Debt' Added" for explanation of  data derivation.

Data is downloaded from the FRB data download page for "Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1)" as follows.

1. Select a preformatted data package: "L.211 (A) Agency- and GSE-Backed Securities, n.s.a."
2. Click: Format package.
3. Select: Last 100 years.
4. Click: Go to Download.
5. Click: Download File.

Medicare/Social Security 2025 Trustees Reports Released

On June 18, 2025, the Center for Medicare Services released its annual Medicare Trustees Report, which projects Medicare spending out to 2095.  As in the past, the report shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

In this report the Trustees forecast that Medicare will top out at a little above 6 percent of GDP in the 2080s.

On June 20, 2025, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Medicare Outlook here based on data in the 2025

 Medicare Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected Medicare Trustee forecasts going back to 2005.

On June 18, 2025, the Social Security Administration released its annual OASDI Trustees Report, which projects Social Security spending out to 2095.  As in the past, the report shows that Social Security spending will max out at about 6 percent of GDP. UsGovernmentspending.com uses the Supplemental Single Year Tables.

On June 20, 2025, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Social Security Outlook here based on data in the 2025 OASDI Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected OASDI Trustee forecasts going back to 1997.