Monday, October 15, 2018

Federal Deficit, Receipts, Outlays Actuals for FY18

On October 15, 2018, the US Treasury reported in its Monthly Treasury Statement (and xls) for September that the federal deficit for FY 2018 ending September 30, 2018, was $779 billion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the FY 2019 federal budget published in February 2018:

Federal Finances
FY 2018 Outcomes
Budget
billions
Outcome
billions
Receipts $3,340$3,329
Outlays$4,130$4,108
Deficit$833$779

usgovernmentspending.com now shows the new numbers for total FY 2018 total outlays and receipts on its Estimate vs. Actual page.

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes "Table 4: Receipts of the United States Government, September 2018 and Other Periods." This table of receipts by source is used for usgovernmentspending.com to post details of federal receipt actuals for FY 2018.

This FTS report on FY 18 actuals is a problem for usgovernmentspending.com because this site uses Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction from the Budget of the United States as its basic source for federal subfunction outlays. But the Monthly Treasury Statement only includes "Table 9. Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government, September 2018 and Other Periods". Subfunction amounts don't get reported until the FY20 budget in February 2019. Until then usgovernmentspending.com estimates actual outlays by "subfunction" for FY 2018 by factoring subfunction budgeted amounts for FY18 by the ratio between relevant actual and budgeted "function" amounts where actual outlays by subfunction cannot be gleaned from the Monthly Treasury Statement.

Final detailed FY 2018 actuals will not appear on usgovernmentspending.com until the FY 2020 federal budget is published in February 2019 with the actual outlays for FY 2018 in Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction.

Friday, September 21, 2018

State FY18 Taxes Update

On September 20, 2018 usgovernmentspending.com updated FY2018 state revenue with quarterly tax data released by the US Census Bureau on September 13, 2018.  Local tax data was updated by assuming that local taxes for 2018 changed by the same percent as state taxes of the same type.

$ billionFY2018
Estimate
FY2018
Actual
State Income Tax Revenue$406$441
Total State Revenue$1,545$1,601

State and local spending projections for FY2019 to FY2023 have been reestimated using the "Guesstimate" method.

Monday, September 17, 2018

State and Local Finances for FY 2016

On September 16, 2018 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2016 using the new Census Bureau State and Local Government Finances summaries for FY 2016 released on September 12, 2018.  This includes state and local spending for the United States as a whole and the 50 individual states and the District of Columbia.

State and local spending and revenue for FY2016 are now actual historical spending as reported by the Census Bureau.  Previously state spending and revenue for FY2016 were actual, and local spending and revenue were estimated.  The following table shows the difference between estimated and actual local spending and revenue for FY2016:

FY 2016Estimated
$ billion
Actual
$ billion
Local Spending$1,784$1,814
Local Revenue$1,229$1,212

The Census Bureau has also updated state and local finances for 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015, as follows:

FY 2012
Previous
$ billion
FY 2012
Latest
$ billion
FY 2013
Previous
$ billion
FY 2013
Latest
$ billion
FY 2014
Previous
$ billion
FY 2014
Latest
$ billion
FY 2015
Previous
$ billion
FY 2015
Latest
$ billion
State Spending$1,497$1,501$1,517$1,517$1,550$1,550$1,634$1,636
Local Spending$1,651$1,649$1,662$1,661$1,712$1,710$1,763$1,762
State Revenue$1,368$1,360$1,668$1,659$1,814$1,828$1,554$1,499
Local Revenue$1,077$1,076$1,155$1,155$1,229$1,221$1,206$1,212

We have updated the "guesstimated" state and local finances for FY2017-23 as indicated in our "guesstimate" blog entries.