Monday, February 12, 2018

Federal Budget for FY19 Released

On February 12, 2019, we updated with the numbers from the historical tables in the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2019. Actual revenue for FY 2017 and estimated revenue through FY 2023 come from Historical Tables 2.1, 2.4, and 2.5. Actual spending for FY 2017 and estimated spending at the subfunction level through FY 2023 come from Table 3.2. Budget Authority estimates come from Table 5.1, federal debt estimates come from Table 7.1 and GDP estimates come from Table 10.1. Intergovernmental transfers come from Table 12.3.

Here is how headline budget estimates for the upcoming FY 2019 fiscal year have changed since the release of the FY 2017 budget a year ago in 2016.

FY 2019 Federal Budget Changes Since 2017
$ billionEstimate in
FY18 Budget
Estimate in
FY19 Budget
Federal Outlays$4,339.6$4,406.7+$67.1
Federal Receipts$3,813.7$3,422.3-$391.4
Federal Deficit$525.9$984.4+$458.5

You can see line item changes from budget to budget here. You can compare budget estimates with actuals here.

Account level spending estimates through FY 2023 come from the Outlays table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on on February 12, 2018.

Account level budget authority estimates through FY 2023 come from the Budget Authority table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on on February 12, 2018.

Sunday, December 31, 2017

US, State Population Update for 2017

On December 20, 2017 the US Census Bureau released its US national and state population estimates for July 1, 2017.  On December 31, 2017 updated its US and state population data as follows:
  • We updated 2010-2017 population data for US and states using data from US Census Bureau Population Estimates: vintage 2017 in file nst-est2017-01.xlsx.
  • We projected 2018 thru 2022 for US and the states assuming population rate change for 2016-17.
  • We updated 2018 thru 2022 for US only using data from US Census Bureau 2014 National Population Projections in file NP2014-T1.xls. uses population data in computing per capita spending and revenue data. You can see per capita spending data in a chart here, and in a table of spending here.

You can check the data update schedule here.

Friday, October 20, 2017

Federal Deficit, Outlays, and Receipts Actuals for FY17

On October 20, 2017, the US Treasury reported in its Monthly Treasury Statement (and xls) for September that the federal deficit for FY 2017 ending September 30, 2017, was $666 billion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the FY 2018 federal budget published in May 2017:

Federal Finances
FY 2016 Outcomes
Receipts $3,460$3,315
Deficit$603$666 now shows the new numbers for total FY 2017 total outlays and receipts on its Estimate vs. Actual page.

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes "Table 4: Receipts of the United States Government, September 2017 and Other Periods." This table of receipts by source is used for to post federal receipt actuals for FY 2017.

This FTS report on FY 17 actuals is a problem for because this site uses Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction from the Budget of the United States as its basic source for federal subfunction outlays. But the Monthly Treasury Statement only includes "Table 9. Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government, September 2016 and Other Periods". Subfunction amounts don't get reported until the FY19 budget in February 2018. Until then estimates actual outlays by "subfunction" for FY 2017 by factoring subfunction budgeted amounts for FY17 by the ratio between relevant actual and budgeted "function" amounts where actual outlays by subfunction cannot be gleaned from the Monthly Treasury Statement.

Final detailed FY 2017 actuals will not appear on until the FY 2019 federal budget is published in February 2018 with the actual outlays for FY 2017 in Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction.