Monday, January 7, 2019

US, State Population Update for 2018

On December 7, 2018 the US Census Bureau released its US national and state population estimates for July 1, 2018.  On January 7, 2019 updated its US and state population data as follows:
  • We updated 2010-2018 population data for US and states using data from US Census Bureau Population Estimates: vintage 2018 in file nst-est2018-01.xlsx.
  • We projected 2019 thru 2024 for the states assuming population rate change for 2017-18.
  • We updated 2019 thru 2024 for US only using the percentage projections from US Census Bureau 2017 National Population Projections in file np2017-t1.xlsx. uses population data in computing per capita spending and revenue data. You can see per capita spending data in a chart here, and in a table of spending here.

You can check the data update schedule here.

Monday, October 15, 2018

Federal Deficit, Receipts, Outlays Actuals for FY18

On October 15, 2018, the US Treasury reported in its Monthly Treasury Statement (and xls) for September that the federal deficit for FY 2018 ending September 30, 2018, was $779 billion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the FY 2019 federal budget published in February 2018:

Federal Finances
FY 2018 Outcomes
Receipts $3,340$3,329
Deficit$833$779 now shows the new numbers for total FY 2018 total outlays and receipts on its Estimate vs. Actual page.

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes "Table 4: Receipts of the United States Government, September 2018 and Other Periods." This table of receipts by source is used for to post details of federal receipt actuals for FY 2018.

This FTS report on FY 18 actuals is a problem for because this site uses Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction from the Budget of the United States as its basic source for federal subfunction outlays. But the Monthly Treasury Statement only includes "Table 9. Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government, September 2018 and Other Periods". Subfunction amounts don't get reported until the FY20 budget in February 2019. Until then estimates actual outlays by "subfunction" for FY 2018 by factoring subfunction budgeted amounts for FY18 by the ratio between relevant actual and budgeted "function" amounts where actual outlays by subfunction cannot be gleaned from the Monthly Treasury Statement.

Final detailed FY 2018 actuals will not appear on until the FY 2020 federal budget is published in February 2019 with the actual outlays for FY 2018 in Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction.

Friday, September 21, 2018

State FY18 Taxes Update

On September 20, 2018 updated FY2018 state revenue with quarterly tax data released by the US Census Bureau on September 13, 2018.  Local tax data was updated by assuming that local taxes for 2018 changed by the same percent as state taxes of the same type.

$ billionFY2018
State Income Tax Revenue$406$441
Total State Revenue$1,545$1,601

State and local spending projections for FY2019 to FY2023 have been reestimated using the "Guesstimate" method.