Friday, November 1, 2019

State and Local Finances for FY 2017

On November 1, 2019 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2017 using the new Census Bureau State and Local Government Finances summaries for FY 2017 released on October 30, 2019.  This includes state and local spending for the United States as a whole and the 50 individual states and the District of Columbia.

State and local spending and revenue for FY2017 are now actual historical spending as reported by the Census Bureau.  Previously state spending and revenue for FY2017 were actual, and local spending and revenue were estimated.  The following table shows the difference between estimated and actual local spending and revenue for FY2017:

FY 2017Estimated
$ billion
$ billion
Local Spending$1,850$1,895
Local Revenue$1,254$1,335

The Census Bureau proposes to update revised state and local finances for 2016 in December 2019

We have updated the "guesstimated" state and local finances for FY2018-24 as indicated in our "guesstimate" blog entries.

UPDATE 11/04/2019:

We have updated data for individual local government units with data for 2017.

Friday, October 25, 2019

Federal Deficit, Receipts, Outlays Actuals for FY19

On October 25, 2019, the US Treasury reported in its Monthly Treasury Statement (and xls) for September that the federal deficit for FY 2019 ending September 30, 2019, was $984 billion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the FY 2020 federal budget published in February 2019:

Federal Finances
FY 2019 Outcomes
Receipts $3,438$3,462
Deficit$1,091$984 now shows the new numbers for total FY 2019 total outlays and receipts on its Estimate vs. Actual page.

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes "Table 4: Receipts of the United States Government, September 2019 and Other Periods." This table of receipts by source is used for to post details of federal receipt actuals for FY 2019.

This FTS report on FY 19 actuals is a problem for because this site uses Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction from the Budget of the United States as its basic source for federal subfunction outlays. But the Monthly Treasury Statement only includes "Table 9. Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government, September 2019 and Other Periods". Subfunction amounts don't get reported until the FY21 budget in February 2020. Until then estimates actual outlays by "subfunction" for FY 2019 by factoring subfunction budgeted amounts for FY19 by the ratio between relevant actual and budgeted "function" amounts where actual outlays by subfunction cannot be gleaned from the Monthly Treasury Statement.

Final detailed FY 2019 actuals will not appear on until the FY 2021 federal budget is published in February 2020 with the actual outlays for FY 2019 in Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction.

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

State FY19 Taxes Update

On September 17, 2019 updated FY2019 state revenue with quarterly tax data released by the US Census Bureau on September 17, 2019.  Local tax data was updated by assuming that local taxes for 2019 changed by the same percent as state taxes of the same type.

$ billionFY2019
State Income Tax Revenue$480$466
Total State Revenue$2,108$2,071

State and local spending projections for FY2020 to FY2024 have been reestimated using the "Guesstimate" method.