Sunday, July 22, 2018

CBO Long Term Budget Outlook for 2018

On June 26, 2018 the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook for 2018, which projects federal spending and revenue out into the 2040s.  As before, the CBO study shows that federal health-care programs and interest costs will eat the budget, with federal spending exceeding 28 percent GDP by mid century while federal revenue stays below 20 percent GDP.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the CBO Long Term Budget Outlook here.  You can download the data and also view CBO Long Term Budget Outlooks going back to 1999.

Wednesday, June 6, 2018

Gross State Product for 2017

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2017 on May 11, 2017.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2016 and projected nominal and real GSP through 2023 for each state using the projected national GDP numbers from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2019 Budget and the historical GDP data series from the BEA as a baseline.

As before we have projected individual state GSPs out to 2023 by applying a factor to reflect each state's deviation from the national growth rate. (E.g. In 2014 the national real GDP expanded by 2.4 percent. But North Dakota grew by 6.3 percent, a deviation of nearly 4 percent. The deviation is reduced by 40 percent for each year after 2014, making the assumption that each state will slowly revert to the national norm.)

Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2017 GSP growth rates.

Medicare Part C Updated from 2018 Trustees Report

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its estimate of Medicare Part C, the Medicare Advantage program using data in the Medicare Trustees Report of 2017 that was released June 5, 2018. You can see the results here.

The Budget of the United States Government reports Medicare outlays as a single line item, subfunction 571 in Historical Table 3.2, but Usgovernmentspending.com shows a breakdown of the Medicare program into its constituent parts, as follows:
  1. Part A: Hospital Insurance
  2. Part B: Supplementary Medical Insurance
  3. Part C: Medicare Advantage
  4. Part D: SMI Drug Plan
These data are constructed from data in the Public Budget Database and Table IV.C2 in the Medicare Trustees Report 2018 which reports the payments made to private Medicare health plans and the projected payments in future years.

You can inspect the extracted data from Medicare Trustees Reports Table IV.C2 here. And see the blog entry that introduced the Medicare Part C breakout to usgovernmentspending.com here.

Here is a breakdown of Medicare budgeted outlays for 2020 before and after today's update.

Outlays in
percent GDP
Part APart BPart CPart DTotal
Medicare
FY2020 before update0.910.781.000.373.00% GDP
FY2020 after update0.880.751.050.373.00% GDP

The update indicates a 5 percent increase in Medicare Part C over the previous estimate in the Medicare Trustees Report in 2017.