Tuesday, September 17, 2019

State FY19 Taxes Update

On September 17, 2019 usgovernmentspending.com updated FY2019 state revenue with quarterly tax data released by the US Census Bureau on September 17, 2019.  Local tax data was updated by assuming that local taxes for 2019 changed by the same percent as state taxes of the same type.

$ billionFY2019
Estimate
FY2019
Actual
State Income Tax Revenue$480$466
Total State Revenue$2,108$2,071

State and local spending projections for FY2020 to FY2024 have been reestimated using the "Guesstimate" method.

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

CBO Long Term Budget Outlook for 2019

On June 25, 2019 the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook for 2019, which projects federal spending and revenue out into the 2040s.  As before, the CBO study shows that federal health-care programs and interest costs will eat the budget, with federal spending exceeding 28 percent GDP by mid century while federal revenue stays below 20 percent GDP.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the CBO Long Term Budget Outlook here.  You can download the data and also view CBO Long Term Budget Outlooks going back to 1999.

Friday, May 31, 2019

Medicare Part C Updated from 2019 Trustees Report

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its estimate of Medicare Part C, the Medicare Advantage program using data in the Medicare Trustees Report of 2018 that was released April 22, 2019. You can see the results here.

The Budget of the United States Government reports Medicare outlays as a single line item, subfunction 571 in Historical Table 3.2, but Usgovernmentspending.com shows a breakdown of the Medicare program into its constituent parts, as follows:
  1. Part A: Hospital Insurance
  2. Part B: Supplementary Medical Insurance
  3. Part C: Medicare Advantage
  4. Part D: SMI Drug Plan
These data are constructed from data in the Public Budget Database and Table IV.C2 in the Medicare Trustees Report 2019 which reports the payments made to private Medicare health plans and the projected payments in future years.

You can inspect the extracted data from Medicare Trustees Reports Table IV.C2 here. And see the blog entry that introduced the Medicare Part C breakout to usgovernmentspending.com here.

Here is a breakdown of Medicare budgeted outlays for 2021 before and after today's update.

Outlays in
percent GDP
Part APart BPart CPart DTotal
Medicare
FY2021 before update0.870.731.080.423.10% GDP
FY2021 after update0.840.711.140.423.11% GDP

The update indicates a 5.6 percent increase in Medicare Part C over the previous estimate in the Medicare Trustees Report in 2017.

Medicare/Social Security 2019 Trustee Reports Released

On April 22, 2019, the Center for Medicare Services released its annual Medicare Trustees Report, which projects Medicare spending out to 2093.  As in the past, the report shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

In previous reports the Trustees forecast that Medicare would top out at about 6 percent of GDP around 2040. In the 2019 Report the Trustees predict no end in sight, with Medicare blowing through 9 percent of GDP in the 2090s.

On May 31, 2019, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Medicare Outlook here based on data in the 2019 Medicare Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected Medicare Trustee forecasts going back to 2005.

On April 25, 2019, the Social Security Administration released its annual OASDI Trustees Report, which projects Social Security spending out to 2090.  As in the past, the report shows that Social Security spending will max out at about 6 percent of GDP. UsGovernmentspending.com uses the Supplemental Single Year Tables.

On May 31, 2019, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Social Security Outlook here based on data in the 2019 OASDI Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected OASDI Trustee forecasts going back to 1997.

Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Gross State Product for 2018

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2018 on May 1, 2019.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2018 and projected nominal and real GSP through 2024 for each state using the projected national GDP numbers from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2020 Budget and the historical GDP data series from the BEA as a baseline.

As before we have projected individual state GSPs out to 2024 by applying a factor to reflect each state's deviation from the national growth rate. (E.g. In 2014 the national real GDP expanded by 2.4 percent. But North Dakota grew by 6.3 percent, a deviation of nearly 4 percent. The deviation is reduced by 40 percent for each year after 2014, making the assumption that each state will slowly revert to the national norm.)

Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2018 GSP growth rates.

Monday, May 20, 2019

Federal Revenue by State for 2017 and 2018

On May 20, 2019, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from "SOI Tax Stats - Gross Collections, by Type of Tax and State, Fiscal Year - IRS Data Book Table 5" of the IRS Data Book for 2017 and 2018.  The data can be viewed on the Federal Revenue by State page here.

Friday, May 3, 2019

State Finances for FY2017

On May 3, 2019 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2017 here, including spending and revenue for each individual state and for all states combined.

On May 3, 2019 we updated state and local spending and revenue data for FY2018 through FY2024 as follows:
  1. We replaced "guesstimatedstate spending and revenue data for FY2017 using the new FY2017 data from the Census Bureau.
  2. We replaced "guesstimatedlocal spending and revenue data for FY 20176 with estimates for each spending and revenue category using the trends in state finances between FY 2016 and FY 2017.
  3. We replaced "guesstimatedstate revenue data for FY 2018 with data from the Census Bureau's quarterly state tax summary here.
  4. We replaced "guesstimatedlocal revenue data for FY 2018 with estimates for each category using trends for each category of state revenue between FY 2016 and FY 2017.
  5. We replaced "guesstimated" state and local spending and revenue for FY 2018 thru FY2024 with new guesstimates based on the latest Census Bureau data for FY 2017 state finances and FY 2018 quarterly tax data.

State Finances for FY2017
Estimate vs. Actual

$ billionGuesstimateActual
Spending$1,752$1,769
Revenue$1,520$1,894

We expect the Census Bureau to release local spending and revenue data for FY 2017 not earlier than Summer 2019.

Friday, April 26, 2019

US Gross Output for 2018 Released

On April 26, 2019, usgovernmentspending.com updated its Gross Output series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, including nominal Gross Output for calendar 2018 of $36.462 trillion. Gross Output for some years previous to 2018 have been revised by BEA.

usgovernmentspending.com reports Gross Output on its Spending Details page and permits charting of spending and revenue as "percent of Gross Output".

The Gross Output series extends back to 1947.

Thursday, March 28, 2019

US GDP for 2018 Updated

On March 28, 2019, usgovernmentspending.com updated its GDP series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, under "Supplemental Information and Data" including nominal GDP for calendar 2018 of $20.494  trillion and real GDP  for calendar 2018 of $18.566 trillion in 2012 dollars. Real GDP is now expressed in 2012 dollars. GDP for some years previous to 2018 have been revised by BEA.

Usgovernmentspending.com uses the BEA GDP data series from 1929 to the present and measuringworth.com as its GDP source from 1790 to 1928.

Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Revise Medicaid using CMS NHE Data

Medicaid, the joint federal state program for health care for the poor, has been shown on usgovernmentspending.com but is not well defined in the Census Bureau's data on state and local government finances. There is a code E74 "Welfare-Vendor Payments-Med" which presumably includes monies from Medicaid.

But the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) publishes an annual report on National Health Expenditures and its NHE Tables includes data on Medicaid from 1966 to 2017. But even here, there are differences between the CMS and other authorities, including the Federal Budget and The Henry J Kaiser Family Foundation:


AuthorityYearFederal
Medicaid
State
Medicaid
CMSCY 2017$365.2 bn $220.6 bn
Federal BudgetFY 2017$374.7 bn   -
Kaiser FoundationFY 2017$354.8 bn $221.8 bn

From March 26, 2019, has loaded the CMS NHE data, and usgovernmentspending.com shows Medicaid spending as follows:
  • Federal Medicaid spending is stated as the amount published in the Public Budget Database as "Grants to States for Medicaid".
  • State and local Medicaid spending is stated as the combined federal-state amount published in the NHE Tables on the line "Medicaid (Title XIX)" and is considered only as combined state and local spending without determining how much gets spent at the state level and how much at the local level.
usgovernmentspending.com publishes "guesstimates" of state and local spending from the latest year published by the Census Bureau (currently FY 2016) to the last year in the Historical Tables of the federal budget (for the FY 2020 budget that is 2024). So we have developed "guesstimates" of Medicaid spending going out to 2024, assuming that the overall Medicaid spending increases at the same rate as the federal "Grants to States for Medicaid" increases.

National Health Expenditure data is updated each year in late April.

Monday, March 18, 2019

Federal Budget for FY20 Released

On March 18, 2019, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the historical tables in the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2020. Actual revenue for FY 2018 and estimated revenue through FY 2024 come from Historical Tables 2.1, 2.4, and 2.5. Actual spending for FY 2018 and estimated spending at the subfunction level through FY 2024 come from Table 3.2. Budget Authority estimates come from Table 5.1, federal debt estimates come from Table 7.1 and GDP estimates come from Table 10.1. Intergovernmental transfers come from Table 12.3.

Here is how headline budget estimates for the upcoming FY 2020 fiscal year have changed since the release of the FY 2019 budget a year ago in 2018.

FY 2020 Federal Budget Changes Since 2019
$ billionEstimate in
FY19 Budget
Estimate in
FY20 Budget
Change
Federal Outlays$4,595.9$4,529.2-$66.7
Federal Receipts$3,608.9$3,437.2-$171.7
Federal Deficit$987.0$1,091.5+$104.5

You can see line item changes from budget to budget here. You can compare budget estimates with actuals here.

Account level spending estimates through FY 2024 come from the Outlays table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on March 18, 2019.

Account level budget authority estimates through FY 2024 come from the Budget Authority table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on March 18, 2019.

Sunday, March 10, 2019

Agency Debt Update for 2018

On March 10, 2019, usgovernmentspending.com updated its data for agency debt from the Federal Reserve Board database. Data is now available for the period 1945-2018. You can see our Agency Debt page here, and a comparison with the official "on-the-books" debt here.

For the period 2017 to 2023 usgovernmentspending.com has "guesstimated" the agency debt, assuming that it increases at the same rate as it did in 2017 to 2018.

See "Federal 'Agency Debt' Added" for explanation of  data derivation.

Data is downloaded from the FRB data download page for "Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1)" as follows.
  1. Select a preformatted data package: "L.211 (A) Agency- and GSE-Backed Securities, n.s.a."
  2. Click: Format package.
  3. Select: 100 years.
  4. Click: Go to Download.
  5. Click: Download File.

Monday, January 7, 2019

US, State Population Update for 2018

On December 7, 2018 the US Census Bureau released its US national and state population estimates for July 1, 2018.  On January 7, 2019 usgovernmentspending.com updated its US and state population data as follows:
  • We updated 2010-2018 population data for US and states using data from US Census Bureau Population Estimates: vintage 2018 in file nst-est2018-01.xlsx.
  • We projected 2019 thru 2024 for the states assuming population rate change for 2017-18.
  • We updated 2019 thru 2024 for US only using the percentage projections from US Census Bureau 2017 National Population Projections in file np2017-t1.xlsx.
usgovernmentspending.com uses population data in computing per capita spending and revenue data. You can see per capita spending data in a chart here, and in a table of spending here.

You can check the data update schedule here.