Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Revise Medicaid using CMS NHE Data

Medicaid, the joint federal state program for health care for the poor, has been shown on usgovernmentspending.com but is not well defined in the Census Bureau's data on state and local government finances. There is a code E74 "Welfare-Vendor Payments-Med" which presumably includes monies from Medicaid.

But the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) publishes an annual report on National Health Expenditures and its NHE Tables includes data on Medicaid from 1966 to 2017. But even here, there are differences between the CMS and other authorities, including the Federal Budget and The Henry J Kaiser Family Foundation:

CMSCY 2017$365.2 bn $220.6 bn
Federal BudgetFY 2017$374.7 bn   -
Kaiser FoundationFY 2017$354.8 bn $221.8 bn

From March 26, 2019, has loaded the CMS NHE data, and usgovernmentspending.com shows Medicaid spending as follows:
  • Federal Medicaid spending is stated as the amount published in the Public Budget Database as "Grants to States for Medicaid".
  • State and local Medicaid spending is stated as the combined federal-state amount published in the NHE Tables on the line "Medicaid (Title XIX)" and is considered only as combined state and local spending without determining how much gets spent at the state level and how much at the local level.
usgovernmentspending.com publishes "guesstimates" of state and local spending from the latest year published by the Census Bureau (currently FY 2016) to the last year in the Historical Tables of the federal budget (for the FY 2020 budget that is 2024). So we have developed "guesstimates" of Medicaid spending going out to 2024, assuming that the overall Medicaid spending increases at the same rate as the federal "Grants to States for Medicaid" increases.

National Health Expenditure data is updated each year in late April.

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