Thursday, March 28, 2019

US GDP for 2018 Updated

On March 28, 2019, updated its GDP series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, under "Supplemental Information and Data" including nominal GDP for calendar 2018 of $20.494  trillion and real GDP  for calendar 2018 of $18.566 trillion in 2012 dollars. Real GDP is now expressed in 2012 dollars. GDP for some years previous to 2018 have been revised by BEA. uses the BEA GDP data series from 1929 to the present and as its GDP source from 1790 to 1928.

Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Revise Medicaid using CMS NHE Data

Medicaid, the joint federal state program for health care for the poor, has been shown on but is not well defined in the Census Bureau's data on state and local government finances. There is a code E74 "Welfare-Vendor Payments-Med" which presumably includes monies from Medicaid.

But the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) publishes an annual report on National Health Expenditures and its NHE Tables includes data on Medicaid from 1966 to 2017. But even here, there are differences between the CMS and other authorities, including the Federal Budget and The Henry J Kaiser Family Foundation:

CMSCY 2017$365.2 bn $220.6 bn
Federal BudgetFY 2017$374.7 bn   -
Kaiser FoundationFY 2017$354.8 bn $221.8 bn

From March 26, 2019, has loaded the CMS NHE data, and shows Medicaid spending as follows:
  • Federal Medicaid spending is stated as the amount published in the Public Budget Database as "Grants to States for Medicaid".
  • State and local Medicaid spending is stated as the combined federal-state amount published in the NHE Tables on the line "Medicaid (Title XIX)" and is considered only as combined state and local spending without determining how much gets spent at the state level and how much at the local level. publishes "guesstimates" of state and local spending from the latest year published by the Census Bureau (currently FY 2016) to the last year in the Historical Tables of the federal budget (for the FY 2020 budget that is 2024). So we have developed "guesstimates" of Medicaid spending going out to 2024, assuming that the overall Medicaid spending increases at the same rate as the federal "Grants to States for Medicaid" increases.

National Health Expenditure data is updated each year in late April.

Monday, March 18, 2019

Federal Budget for FY20 Released

On March 18, 2019, we updated with the numbers from the historical tables in the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2020. Actual revenue for FY 2018 and estimated revenue through FY 2024 come from Historical Tables 2.1, 2.4, and 2.5. Actual spending for FY 2018 and estimated spending at the subfunction level through FY 2024 come from Table 3.2. Budget Authority estimates come from Table 5.1, federal debt estimates come from Table 7.1 and GDP estimates come from Table 10.1. Intergovernmental transfers come from Table 12.3.

Here is how headline budget estimates for the upcoming FY 2020 fiscal year have changed since the release of the FY 2019 budget a year ago in 2018.

FY 2020 Federal Budget Changes Since 2019
$ billionEstimate in
FY19 Budget
Estimate in
FY20 Budget
Federal Outlays$4,595.9$4,529.2-$66.7
Federal Receipts$3,608.9$3,437.2-$171.7
Federal Deficit$987.0$1,091.5+$104.5

You can see line item changes from budget to budget here. You can compare budget estimates with actuals here.

Account level spending estimates through FY 2024 come from the Outlays table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on on March 18, 2019.

Account level budget authority estimates through FY 2024 come from the Budget Authority table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on on March 18, 2019.

Sunday, March 10, 2019

Agency Debt Update for 2018

On March 10, 2019, updated its data for agency debt from the Federal Reserve Board database. Data is now available for the period 1945-2018. You can see our Agency Debt page here, and a comparison with the official "on-the-books" debt here.

For the period 2017 to 2023 has "guesstimated" the agency debt, assuming that it increases at the same rate as it did in 2017 to 2018.

See "Federal 'Agency Debt' Added" for explanation of  data derivation.

Data is downloaded from the FRB data download page for "Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1)" as follows.
  1. Select a preformatted data package: "L.211 (A) Agency- and GSE-Backed Securities, n.s.a."
  2. Click: Format package.
  3. Select: 100 years.
  4. Click: Go to Download.
  5. Click: Download File.