The Feds Borrow More Than The "Deficit"

People naturally assume that the annual Deficit is the total that the Federal government borrows each year. Actually this is not so. The Deficit is simply the difference between Federal Outlays and Federal Receipts. Usually, the Feds borrow a lot more than the official Deficit.

Like below, in $ billion:

Year	Gross Debt	Debt Increase	Federal Deficit	Other Borrow
2000	5629	24	-236	259
2005	7905	551	318	232
2010	13529	1653	1294	359
2011	14764	1235	1300	-64
2012	16051	1287	1087	200
2013	16719	669	680	-11
2014	17795	1075	485	590
2015	18120	326	438	-113
2016	19540	1420	585	835
2017	20206	666	666	0
2018	21462	1156	779	478
2019	22668	1206	984	221

We have provided the difference between the Debt increase and the Deficit for each year under "Other Borrowing" on the Spending Details page. There are two items:

"Borrowings from Govt. Accounts" = Increase in Debt held by government, also known as "Federal Securities Held as Investments of Government Accounts" in Table 6, Schedule D of the Monthly Treasury Statement.

"Other Liability Increase" = (Increase in Total Federal Securities) - (Official Deficit) - (Borrowings from Govt. Accounts)

Other Borrowing = (Increase in Federal Debt) - (Official Deficit)

But what does it mean?

"Borrowings from Govt. Accounts" means everything from spare cash in some federal agency to excess monies contributed to various Trust Funds from Social Security to the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund.

"Other Liability Increase"  is everything else on the Federal balance sheet, from changes in operating cash in the Treasury's Federal Reserve Account to IMF transactions. See Table 6 in the Monthly Treasury Statement.

Note that these numbers do not include the unfunded liabilities of the federal government's entitlement programs.

Updated 12/18/2019.

Gross State Product Update for 2015

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2015 on June 14, 2016.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2015 and projected nominal and real GSP through 2020 for each state using the projected national GDP numbers from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2016 Budget and the historical GDP data series from the BEA as a baseline.

As before we have projected individual state GSPs out to 2021 by applying a factor to reflect each state's deviation from the national growth rate. (E.g. In 2014 the national real GDP expanded by 2.4 percent. But North Dakota grew by 6.3 percent, a deviation of nearly 4 percent. The deviation is reduced by 40 percent for each year after 2014, making the assumption that each state will slowly revert to the national norm.)

Usgovernmentspending.com displays individual state data going back to 1957, but BEA has nominal GSP data going back to only 1963, and real GSP data going back to 1987.  Also the 1987-1997 real GSP data is in 1997 dollars, not 2009 dollars like the 1997-present data, and the pre-1997 data is based on a different model than post 1997 data.  For the pre-1997 data we have factored it to remove any "bumps" over the 1997 transition.

Because usgovernmentspending.com needs GSP data to provide e.g., spending as a percent of GDP, we have extended the two BEA GSP data series back to 1957.  We have assumed that the rate of change of GSP prior to 1963 is the same as the national GDP and we have assumed that the rate of change of real GSP prior to 1987 is the same as the nation real GDP growth rate.

Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2015 GSP growth rates.

GDP, Gross Output Sources

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Output are obtained from a variety of sources.

National GDP

We use a forecast of GDP in Historical Table 10.1 from the federal budget  for the current year out six years.

We use historical GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for GDP from 1929 to the present(xls).

We use historical GDP from Measuring Worth from 1792 to 1928.

State GDP

We estimate state GDP by blending the latest historical GDP for each state with the forecast GDP in Historical Table 10.1 from the federal budget for the current year out six years.

We use historical GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis from 1963 to the present.

National Gross Output

We "guesstimate" future Gross Output by applying the ratio of (Gross Output)/GDP from the latest Gross Output value to the forecast GDP in Historical Table 10.1 of the federal budget for the current year out six years.

We use historical Gross Output from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for Gross Output from 1997 to the present here(xlsx). Gross Output from 1987 to 1997 is here(xls).

UPDATED: 4/28/2015.

Gross State Product Update for 2011

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2011 on June 5, 2012.
Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2011 and projected nominal and real GSP through 2017 for each state using the projected national GDP growth rates from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2013 Budget as a baseline.
As before we have projected individual state GSPs by applying a factor to reflect each state's deviation from the national growth rate. (E.g. In 2011 the national real GDP expanded by 1.7 percent. But North Dakota grew by 7.6 percent, a deviation of nearly 6 percent. The deviation is reduced by 40 percent for each year after 2011, assuming that each state will slowly revert to the national norm.)
Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2011 GSP growth rates.

Federal Budget Data Back to 1986 Now Available

You can now examine federal government budget data on usgovernmentspending.com going back to 1986.

Up to now, usgovernmentspending.com has featured federal budget data available online from the US Government Printing Office.  Principally, usgovernmentspending.com gets this data from the Historical Tables supplement to the federal budget, from Tables 2.1, 2.4, 2.5, 3.2, 7.1 and 10.1.  These data on the GPO site go back to the 1996 budget released in February 1995, and that's all that usgovernmentspending.com lets you see.

Usgovernmentspending.com provides two ways for you to look at this data in its Budget feature.

1. You can look at the six years of estimated spending in a single budget here. 
2. You can look at the spending estimates for a single year in six successive budgets here and compare them with the actual spending.

The historical data series published in the Historical Tables start at various dates between 1934 and 1962 and, when published in each budget, feature actual data up to the fiscal year that ended prior to the publication of the budget. In addition to the historical data, the tables include six years of estimated data for spending and revenue, beginning with the budget year in progress at the time the budget is published and out five years into the future.  The OMB first started publishing the six-year estimates in the 1986 federal budget.

We have now added the estimated spending and revenue data from the Historical Tables for the budgets from 1986 to 1995.  Most of the data is available on PDF files at the FRASER database at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis here.  Data from the 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, and 1995 budgets was copied from paper records and are now available in PDF files on the usgovernmentspending.com site.

Here is how to access the raw estimated data in the Historical Tables for 1986 - 1995:

• 1986 FRASER
• 1987 FRASER
• 1988 FRASER
• 1989 FRASER
• 1990 FRASER
• 1991 here
• 1992 here
• 1993 here
• 1994 here
• 1995 here

Here is the link to individual federal budgets at the GPO site from 1996 to the present. You can drill down to individual budgets.

See also Table of Data Sources by Year.

LAST UPDATED: 02/01/2020

Change to "Guesstimated" State and Local Spending

We create "guesstimated" state and local spending at usgovernmentspending.com to provide an estimate of state and local spending to match up against the five year forecast of federal spending that comes out each year in the federal budget. Otherwise the most recent data for state spending is at least a year old and local spending at least two years old.

Up to now, the "guesstimated" state and local spending for years more recent than the latest US Census Bureau report on State and Local Government Finances has been a simple projection of the change between the last two reported years. If, e.g., education spending increased by 5% between 2007 and 2008 we have constructed an education spending value for all future years by increasing each year by five percent.

Effective immediately we are changing the "guesstimated" method. The new method assumes that state and local spending and revenue in the next few years will trend back towards the average value recorded in the recent past, expressed as a percent of GDP (or GSP).

Here is the new method for computing "guesstimated" spending for all states combined and for each individual state.

1. Establish a five year Reference Period. At present the last year for which state spending is available is 2009, so the reference period is 2005 through 2009. (UPDATE 1/23/14: Reference period is now 2011 to 2012)
2. For each spending and revenue item calculate an average value for the Reference Period as percent of GDP for a combined state or local value, or as percent of Gross State Project (GSP) for individual states.
3. Compute a Projected Value (e.g., for 2010) that would continue the percentage change for the latest two years (2008 and 2009) for each spending or revenue item.
4. Compute a Revert-to-mean Value (e.g., for 2010) that would return the spending or revenue item to the average calculated for the Reference Period as percent of projected GDP for the US or state GSP for the year.
5. Calculate and save in the database (e.g., for 2010) a Mean Value for the spending/revenue item that is half way between the Projected Value and the Revert-to-mean Value.
6. Repeat procedure for all spending and revenue items.
7. Compute total spending and total revenue from new values for 2010.
8. Repeat for other states.

The projected value for US GDP is the value for each year from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables of the federal budget. The projected value for each state GSP is computed by applying the change in federal GDP growth rate to the last year's state GSP and then moving the state GSP growth rate towards the federal growth rate by 40 percent of the difference between the state and the federal growth rate.

The "guesstimated" value for state and local revenue code "X08 Employee Retirement - Earnings on Investments" is too volatile to be "guesstimated" using this method. It is computed by changing the latest year's value by 60 percent of the difference between the latest year's value and the average value for the Reference Period. This value, for all states combined, was a $500 billion loss in 2009. This method reverts "X08" to a substantial gain in 2010 and future years. (UPDATE: 1/23/14: X08 is now computed like other items)

Data Update Schedule

Here's a table that tells you when data was last updated, and when to expect fresh updates from usgovernmentspending.com.

LAST UPDATED: 02/17/2021

Mon	Data Type	Last Update + Link		Next Update
Feb	Federal Spending/Revenue govinfo.gov	Mar 2019	FY20 Budget	Feb 2020	FY2021 Budget
Feb	Forecast US GDP govinfo.gov	Mar 2019	2019 ff	Feb 2020	CY20ff
Mar	Actual US GDP bea.gov	Mar 2019	2018 GDP	Mar 2020	CY19
Mar	Federal Revenue by State irs.gov	Aug 2020	FY19 data	Mar 2021	FY20 data
Mar	Agency Debt federalreserve.gov	Mar 2020	2019 data	Mar 2021	CY20
Apr	Actual US GO bea.gov	Apr 2020	2019 GO	Apr 2021	CY20
Apr	State Spending/Revenue census.gov	Apr 2020	FY18 data	Feb 2020	FY19 data
May	Actual State GDP bea.gov	May 2020	2019 data	May 2021	2020 data
May	Medicare Trustees Report cms.gov	May 2020	2020 report	Apr 2021	2021 report
May	OASDI Trustees Report ssa.gov	May 2020	2020 report	Apr 2021	2021 report
May	Medicare Part C Update cms.gov	May 2020	2020 report	Apr 2021	2021 report
June	CBO Long Term Outlook cbo.gov	Sep 2020	2020 report	Jul 2021	2021 report
Sept	State Quarterly Taxes census.gov	Sep 2020	FY20 data	Sep 2021	FY21 data
Oct	Federal Outlays, Receipts, Deficit treas.gov	Oct 2019	FY19 data	Oct 2020	FY20 data
Oct	State and Local Spending/Revenue census.gov	Oct 2020	FY18 data	Nov 2021	FY19 data
Dec	CMS Medicaid cms.gov	Dec 2020	CY19 data	Dec 2021	CY20 data
Feb	US, State Population census.gov	Feb 2021	7/20 data	Dec 2021	7/21 data

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What's Included in "Welfare?"

From Daniela, the following question:

I am trying to figure out what exactly do you include in your "welfare" section. Would you mind elaborating as to what is included in this section?

The simple answer is: Go to usgovernmentspending.com and turn on codes. It's one of the settings in the Units dropdown. Or click here.
When you select codes you can see the description of each code by hovering the mouse over the code.
But here are the codes used in the Welfare section, with their descriptions alongside so you don't have to go click here.  The numeric codes, e.g. "603", are federal;  the codes starting with a letter, e.g. "E77", are state and local.

Code	Description
603	Unemployment compensation
604	Housing assistance
605	Food and nutrition assistance
609	Other income security
B22	Federal Intergovernmental - Employment Security Administration
B50	Federal Intergovernmental - Housing and Community Development
E22	Current Operations - Social Insurance Administration
E50	Current Operations - Housing and Community Development
E75	Current Operations - Public Welfare, Vendor Payments for Other Purposes
E77	Current Operations - Public Welfare Institutions
E79	Current Operations - Public Welfare - Other
F22	Construction - Social Insurance Administration
F50	Construction - Housing and Community Development
F75	Construction - Public Welfare, Vendor Payments for Other Purposes
F77	Construction - Public Welfare Institutions
F79	Construction - Public Welfare - Other
G22	Other Capital Outlay - Social Insurance Administration
G50	Other Capital Outlay - Housing and Community Development
G75	Other Capital Outlay - Public Welfare, Vendor Payments for Other Purposes
G77	Other Capital Outlay - Public Welfare Institutions
G79	Other Capital Outlay - Public Welfare - Other
J67	Assistance and Subsidies – Public Welfare, Federal Categorical Assistance Programs
J68	Assistance and Subsidies – Public Welfare, Cash Assistance Programs – Other
Y05	Unemployment Compensation - Benefit Payments
Y06	Unemployment Compensation - Extended and Special Payments
Y14	Workers Compensation - Benefit Payments
Y53	Other In Trust - Benefit Payment

You can find out what's in the other usgovernmentspending.com categories by clicking here.

World War II US Defense Spending

DURING WORLD War II defense spending in the United States exploded from two percent of GDP in 1940 to a peak of 42 percent in 1945 and then back down to seven percent by 1947.
But the data series of “Federal Government Expenditure, by Function: 1902 to 1970” in the Census Bureau’s Historical Statistics of the United States: From Colonial Times to 1970 only tabulates federal spending every two years: 1940, 1942, 1944, etc.
Fortunately, the Executive Branch budget documents published by the US Government Printing Office at gpoaccess.gov include a set of historical tables, including Table 3.1 — Outlays by Superfunction and Function: 1940–2012. This table includes spending for national defense for each year of World War II. The problem is that the numbers in Table 3.1 don’t match up with the Census Bureau numbers in Historical Statistics.

Comparison of World War II Defense Spending (millions of dollars)
Spending Item	1940	1941	1942	1943	1944	1945	1946	1947	1948
Census Bureau Numbers for “National defense and international relations”
Total	1,590		26,555		85,503		50,461		16,075
Military services only	1,567		22,633		74,670		42,677		10,642
Executive Branch budget numbers in Table 3.1
National Defense	1,660	6,435	25,658	66,699	79,143	82,965	42,681	12,808	9,105

You can see the problem. Not only does the Census Bureau not include the odd years, but the numbers don’t agree with the Executive Branch budget.
We chose to fill in the missing numbers in the the Census Bureau dataset by making them track the trajectory of the numbers in the Executive Branch dataset. Here are the results:

Construction of World War II Defense Spending Dataset (millions of dollars)
Spending Item	1940	1941	1942	1943	1944	1945	1946	1947	1948
Census Bureau numbers interpolated with numbers from Executive Branch dataset
Total expenditure	10,061	14,161	35,549	82,980	100,520	106,877	66,534	41,403	35,592
Total defense & intl	1,590	6,696	26,555	69,884	85,503	92,016	50,461	19,560	16,075
Military only	1,567	5,875	22,633	60,882	74,670	80,617	42,677	13,888	10,642
Executive Branch budget numbers in Table 3.1
Total federal outlays	9,468	13,653	35,137	78,555	91,304	92,712	55,232	34,496	29,764
National defense	1,660	6,435	25,658	66,699	79,143	82,965	42,681	12,808	9,105

We have interpolated values for national defense and for total federal spending in the odd years by translating the shape of the Executive Branch data into the Census Bureau dataset.

All About Intergovernmental Transfers

Federal spending numbers at usgovernmentspending.com come from the OMB budget. They include direct spending on programs and also grants to states and local governments. State and local spending numbers come from the US Census Bureau. They are "direct spending" net of monies transferred to other governments.

Monies transferred to other governments are called intergovernmental transfers. To avoid double-counting at usgovernmentspending.com we show a “Gov. Xfer” column. It represents intergovernmental transfers from the federal government to the states and local governments. For instance, Medicaid (included under Health Care) is a joint federal-state program in which the federal government reimburses state governments for 50 percent or more of their expenses. The federal government's outlay for Medicaid includes monies directly spent by the federal government and monies sent to the states as grants and then spent by the states on Medicaid.

You can see that Health Care has the biggest “Gov. Xfer” number.

The intergovernmental transfer numbers used in the Numbers table are all Census Bureau “B” codes, as described in Census Bureau's Government Finance & Employment Classification Manual. For example, Census Bureau code “B01” is an intergovernmental transfer for “Air Transportation (Airports)”. The numbers are rolled up to provide the totals you can see at the top level. However, we have not used the Census Bureau numbers to report the intergovernmental transfers. Instead we have used OMB's Historical Table 12.3—Total Outlays for Grants to State and Local Governments, by Function, Agency, and Program.

If you drill down two levels (using the [+] controls) you will uncover the specific Census Bureau “B” spending codes used to compute the “rolled-up” intergovernmental transfer numbers. Each code is a link to the Census Bureau page that lists codes.

In summary, usgovernmentspending.com shows federal spending amounts as published by OMB that include monies transferred to other governments, but shows state and local spending as "direct spending" net of transfers to other governments as published by the US Census Bureau. Total spending is calculated as the sum of OMB federal spending plus Census Bureau state and local spending less "intergovernmental transfers" as published by the US Census Bureau.

Of course, intergovernmental transfers affect the revenue side as well as the spending side. You can see intergovernmental transfers on the revenue details page here. Intergovernmental Transfers equal (Total Revenue less Total Direct Revenue) at the state and local level.

UPDATED 10/19/16

Federal Spending at the Agency Code Level

IF YOU DRILL down below the federal subfunction level you can see federal spending at the agency code level. This spending information is obtained from "Outlays", an Excel or CSV spreadsheet (4.5MB) in the Public Budget Database that contains federal spending numbers classified by department, bureau, and agency code for FY 1962 through the latest reported year, and also contains budgeted spending out five years into the future. There are about 4,000 line items at the agency code level.

The file of outlays at the agency code level can be downloaded from Budget of the United States Government in xls, csv, or zip format. Only spending line items in excess of $0.05 billion are displayed at usgovernmentspending.com.

Here's how to get the raw Outlays data in XLS or CSV format.

1. Click on Budget of the United States Government.
2. Click on link for selected fiscal year, e.g., "Fiscal Year 2019"
3. Click on link for "Public Budget Database".
4. Click on XLS or CSV link next to "Outlays" to download file.

Table of Data Sources by Year

THE FOLLOWING table specifies the source of government spending and revenue data for each range of years for which usgovernmentspending.com provides government spending data and usgovernmentrevenue.com provides government revenue data.

See below the table for additional information on sources.

UPDATED: 04/20/24

Sources of Spending and Revenue Data

for usgovernmentspending.com

Year	Federal Spending and Revenue	Intergovernmental Transfer	State Spending and Revenue	Local Spending and Revenue
2029 thru 2025	budgeted From Historical Tables in latest Federal Budget, see here.	guesstimated by usgovernmentspending.com
2024 thru 2022	actual From Historical Tables in latest Federal Budget, see here.	guesstimated by usgovernmentspending.com
2021 thru 1992	actual From Historical Tables in latest Federal Budget, see here.	actual US Census Bureau State and Local Government Finances: See here.
1991 thru 1971	actual From Historical Tables in latest Federal Budget, see here.	actual US Census Bureau Statistical Abstract of the United States 1993, Table: 474 etc.
1970 thru 1962	actual From Historical Tables in latest Federal Budget, see here.	actual US Census Bureau Bicentennial Edition: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970
1961 thru 1952	actual US Census Bureau Bicentennial Edition: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970
1951 thru 1902	actual; and interpolated US Census Bureau Bicentennial Edition: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970 See also: World War II Spending and: World War I Spending
1901 thru 1891	actual US Census Bureau Bicentennial Edition: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970	interpolated US Census Bureau Bicentennial Edition: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970 and Historical Statistics of the United States: 1789 - 1945
1890	actual US Census Bureau Bicentennial Edition: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970	actual Historical Statistics of the United States: 1789 - 1945
1889 thru 1820	actual US Census Bureau Bicentennial Edition: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970	interpolated Michael Mann, The Sources of Social Power, Volume 2, p.363
1829 thru 1792	actual US Census Bureau Bicentennial Edition: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970	none

Additional Sources

You can access the budgeted federal data prior to FY96 used in usgovernmentspending.com here:

• Historical Tables in pdf format for FY1991, FY1992, FY1993, FY1994, FY1995.
• Historical Tables in pdf format for Medicare Trustees Report
• Historical Tables in pdf format for Federal Finances 1789-1970
• Historical Tables in pdf format for State and Local Finances 1789-1945
• Historical Tables for FY1986-FY1990 from St Louis Fed. FRASER database.

Budget federal data down to the "account level" is extracted from the Outlays and the Budget Authority files in the Public Budget Database in each federal budget.

Federal data prior to 1962 is extracted from “Bicentennial Edition: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970.” You can download the relevant extracts in a pdf file here or from the Federal Reserve Archive here.

State and local data from 1902 to 1970 is extracted from the US Census Bureau’s “Bicentennial Edition: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970.” You can download the relevant extracts in a pdf file here.

State and local data for 1890 is extracted from the US Census Bureau’s “Historical Statistics of the United States, 1789 - 1945.” You can download the relevant extracts in a pdf file here.

State and local data for 1891-1901 is interpolated from the 1902 Census Bureau data and the 1890 Census Bureau data.

State and local data for 1830-1889 is interpolated from decadal estimates in Michael Mann, The Sources of Social Power, Volume 2, page 363.

See also Federal Budget Data Sources.

How We Got the Data for usgovernmentspending.com

THE government spending tables on this site aggregate all government spending in the United States of America by fiscal year organized by government function.
Most of the data is actual government spending as reported by the Office of Management and Budget or the United States Census Bureau. But there is also interpolated data for the years not covered by the data sources. In addition, we have included budgeted and estimated spending as well. We have used color and italics to tell you the source of each item of spending.
Here is the key:

• Actual reported government spending is shown in blue text
• Interpolated data filling in for missing years in the source records is shown in blue italic text
• Budgeted spending is shown in normal text
• Estimated spending is shown in italic text
• “Guesstimated” spending, i.e. future state and local spending projected by usgovernmentspending.com, is shown in red italic text

You can use controls on the table to change the year or to drill down to view more detailed spending information.

Data Sources

The government spending information is obtained from several sources of data.

Federal spending since 1962 is obtained from a spreadsheet file Table 3.2 - Outlays by Function and Subfunction in Budget of the United States Government published by the Executive Office of the President of the United States. It contains actual historical federal government spending from 1962 to the fiscal year ending before the current budget, and budgeted and estimated spending the current fiscal year and out five years.

Federal revenue since 1962 is obtained from spreadsheet files Table 2.1 - Receipts by Source: 1934–2016,
Table 2.4 - Composition of Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts and of Excise Taxes: 1940–2016, and Table 2.5 - Composition of “Other Receipts”: 1940–2016.

State and local government spending from 1992 is obtained from tables of state and local government spending published annually by the United States Census Bureau. For instance, the data for fiscal year 2004 is available as a zip file: State by Level of Government - Comma Delimited.

State and local government spending from 1962 to 1991 is obtained from tables of state and local government spending in the Statistical Abstract of the United States published by the United States Census Bureau.

Federal, state, and local government spending prior to 1962 is obtained from “Series Y 605-637. Federal Government Expenditure, by Function: 1902 to 1970” and from “Series Y 682-709. State and Local Government Expenditure, by Function: 1902 to 1970.” These are tables included in Bicentennial Edition: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970 published by the United States Census Bureau.

This information is given in tabular form in Government Spending Data: Sources by Year.

Guesstimated Spending

The federal government provides budgetary data for the current year and the next year. It also provides estimated budgetary data for the following four years.
But the Census Bureau data on state and local spending is historical data only. It does not include any information on state and local budgets or on state and local government spending projections.
So at usgovernmentspending.com we have massaged the recent historical data to come up with a “guesstimate” of future state and local spending.
The method used is to take the average change in spending for the last four years of historical data and estimate the percentage change in spending that this represents, limiting the percentage change to plus 20 percent and zero. We then apply that percentage for each year after the last year in the Census Bureau data.
You will notice that this method has its problems. The line “All Other Spending” for states goes negative in the out years, because the rate of increase in individual programs presently exceeds the rate of increase in overall spending. That is what you call a “budget crisis.”

Interpolated Spending

There is published data available from government sources for all years from 1952 to the present. Between 1932 and 1950 the data in “Bicentennial Edition: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970” is tabulated only for even numbered years. Before 1932 there is data given only for 1902, 1913, 1922, and 1927. For the missing years we have interpolated data from the information given in the published years.