Medicare/Social Security 2026 Trustees Report Released

On June 16, 2026, the Center for Medicare Services released its annual Medicare Trustees Report, which projects Medicare spending out to 2095.  As in the past, the report shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

In this report the Trustees forecast that Medicare will top out at a little above 6 percent of GDP in the 2080s.

On June 15, 2026, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Medicare Outlook here based on data in the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected Medicare Trustee forecasts going back to 2005.

In June 2026, the Social Security Administration released its annual OASDI Trustees Report, which projects Social Security spending out to 2095.  As in the past, the report shows that Social Security spending will max out at about 6 percent of GDP. UsGovernmentspending.com uses the Supplemental Single Year Tables.

On June 15, 2026, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Social Security Outlook here based on data in the 2026 OASDI Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected OASDI Trustee forecasts going back to 1997.

CBO Long Term Budget Outlook for 2026

On February 25, 2026 the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook for 2026, which projects federal spending and revenue out to 2055.  As before, the data for the CBO study shows that federal health-care programs and interest costs will eat the budget, with federal spending exceeding 25 percent GDP by the 2040s while federal revenue stays a little over 19 percent GDP.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the CBO Long Term Budget Outlook here.  You can download the data and also view CBO Long Term Budget Outlooks going back to 1999.

Gross State Product for 2025

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2025 on April 9, 2026.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2025 for each state using the projected national GDP numbers from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2027 Budget and the historical GDP data series from the BEA as a baseline.

Process:

1. Click on link.
2. Click on "Interactive Data" link
3. Click on "Interactive Tables: GDP by State" link
4. Click on "Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by State"
5. Click on "Summary Tables for GDP, personal income, and related data."
6. Click on "SASUMMARY"
7. Area: Select "All Areas"
8. Statistic: Select "Real GDP..." and "Gross domestic product (GDP)"
9. Click on Next Step button
10. Time Period: Select "All Years"
11. Click on Next Step button
12. Click on Download button
13. Select CSV 

Federal Budget for FY27 Released

On April 4, 2026, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the Public Budget Database in the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2027. 

Here is how headline budget estimates for the upcoming FY 2027 fiscal year have changed since the release of the FY 2025 budget in Winter 2024. There were no budgetary estimates in the budget documents for the FY 2026 budget.

Federal Budget Changes for 2027

$ billion	Estimate for 2027 in FY2025 Budget	Estimate for 2027 in FY2027 Budget	Change
Federal Outlays	$7,696.6	$8,092.9	+$569.1
Federal Receipts	$6,186.2	$5,921.0	+$279.1
Federal Deficit	$1,510.3	$2,171.9	+$290.0

You can see line item changes from budget to budget here. You can compare budget estimates with actuals here.

Account level spending estimates through FY 2031 come from the Outlays table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on April 4, 2026.

Account level budget authority estimates through FY 2031 come from the Budget Authority table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on April 4, 2026. 

US GDP for 2025 Released

On March 15, 2026 usgovernmentspending.com updated its GDP series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis,

The GDP series extends back to 1929.

Process:

1. Click on link.
2. Click on "Underlying Detail Tables." 
3. Click on "view data in XLS or other formats."
4. Click on "Section 1 Domestic Product and Income" link
5. Save .xlsx file.

GDP, real and nominal, looks like this:

• US GDP source from 1790 to 1928 is calendar GDP from measuringworth.com.
• US GDP source from 1929 to 2025 is calendar GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, under "Supplemental Information and Data"

usgovernmentspending.com computes inflation rate as:

((This Year GDP - Last Year GDP)/Last Year GDP - (This Year Real GDP - Last Year Real GDP)/Last Year Real GDP)*100.

US, State Population Update for 2025

On January 21, 2026 the US Census Bureau released its US national and state population estimates for July 1, 2025.  On February 7, 2026 usgovernmentspending.com updated its US and state population data as follows:

• We updated 2020-2025 population data from US and states using data from US Census National Population Totals and Components of Change 2020-2025 in file NST-EST2025-POP.xlsx.
• We projected 2022 thru 2030 for the US and states projecting population rate change for 2024-25 through 2030.

usgovernmentspending.com uses population data in computing per capita spending and revenue data. You can see per capita spending data in a chart here, and in a table of spending here.

You can check the data update schedule here.

Medicaid Update for FY2024

On January 14, 2026, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) published its annual report on National Health Expenditures and its NHE Tables includes data on Medicaid from 1960 to 2023. On January 15, 2026, usgovernmentspending.com updated its Medicaid data.

Item	2024 Estimate	2024 Actual
Federal Medicaid	$567.2 bn	$567.2 bn
State Medicaid (net)	$124.4 bn	$253.2 bn
Total Medicaid	$691.6 bn	$820.4 bn

The federal Medicaid number comes from the Federal Budget Subfunction 558: Grants to states for Medicaid. The state contribution comes from the NHE Tables.

usgovernmentspending.com publishes "guesstimates" of state and local spending from the latest year published by the Census Bureau (currently FY 2023) to the last year in the Historical Tables of the federal budget. (currently 2029 from the FY25 budget). So we have developed "guesstimates" of Medicaid spending going out to 2029, assuming that the overall Medicaid spending increases at the same rate as the federal "Grants to States for Medicaid" increases.

National Health Expenditure data is updated each year in mid December.