Thursday, November 18, 2010

Gross State Product Update for 2009

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2009 on November 18, 2010.

usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs and projected state nominal and real GSP through 2015 using projected national GDP growth rates from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2011 Budget.

This year we have projected individual state GSPs by applying a factor to reflect each state's deviation from the national growth rate. (E.g. In 2009 the national real GDP contracted by 2.4 percent. But Oklahoma grew by 6.6 percent, a deviation of about 9.0 percent. The deviation is reduced by 40 percent for each year after 2009, assuming that each state will slowly revert to the national norm.)

Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2009 GSP growth rates.

Saturday, October 2, 2010

State Tax FY10 Update

On September 29, 2010 we applied the latest quarterly update on state taxes released by the Census Bureau. This means that we now display actual reported state taxes for Fiscal Year 2010 ending June 30, 2010.

The data used is Table 3, Latest Tax Collections by State. These numbers, for the quarter ending June 30, have been combined with the numbers for the three previous quarters and applied to individual state taxes for FY 2010. We have also estimated local tax collections by applying the percentage change from FY09 to FY10 for each state tax data item to the local FY09 value, and then "guesstimated" taxes, state and local, for each item out to FY15.

You can see the results at usgovernmentrevenue.com here. State taxes are shown in blue as actual, and local taxes are shown in black italic as estimated.

Note that fees and charges, and business revenue are not included in the Census Bureau update.

Saturday, September 18, 2010

Compare States on Spending and Taxes

At usgovernmentspending.com you've been able to look at state and local spending for each state for years.

But now there's something new. Now you can list spending or tax revenue for all the states at once. That way you can line them up and compare them, on actual dollar spending, or on spending as a percent of Gross State Product.

Click the column headings to reorder the states by state spending, local spending, or combined state and local spending.

You can list overall state spending, or major spending functions like education. And you can list overall revenue, or individual taxes like property tax.

Head on over to http://usgovernmentspending.com/state_spend_gdp_population and take a look.

Sunday, July 18, 2010

Update to State and Local Data: FY 2008

On July 18, 2010, usgovernmentspending.com updated its database with the latest data release on State and Local Government Spending and Revenue from the US Census Bureau. The latest data is for fiscal year 2008. Previously the state data displayed for 2008 was reported, and local data was "guesstimated" based on a crude projection of spending and revenue levels from 2007.
The update includes data for individual states and data and aggregate spending and revenue data for all states.
State tax data has been updated for FY 2009 using quarterly tax reports from the US Census Bureau. State tax data has been updated for FY 2010, using data for the final quarter, calendar 2010 second quarter, from the same quarter in 2009.
Here is the current status of state and local government spending and revenue data.
  • Data up to and including 2008 is actual data reported to and published by the Census Bureau.
  • State tax data for 2009 is actual data reported to and published by the Census Bureau in State Government Tax Collections.
  • State tax data for 2010 is actual data reported to and published by the Census Bureau in State Government Tax Collections for Q1, Q2, and Q3. Q4 uses FY 2009 data from the Census Bureau. Q4 data will be available at the end of September 2010.
  • Data for 2009 (except state tax data for 2009 and 2010) and subsequent years is "guesstimated" by projecting the change in each spending or revenue item between 2007 and 2008 forward. Maximum change is 15 percent. Minimum change is zero percent.
Caveat on "Guesstimated" Data
The crude "guesstimation" that usgovernmentspending.com applies to data after 2008 (the last year for which the US Census Bureau provides data) is a way to get a rough look at total government spending in the present year and the near future.
But in the current recession state and local spending is probably higher than "guesstimated" and revenue is probably significantly lower than "guesstimated."
Upcoming Data Updates
The Census Bureau will report state tax revenues for calendar 2010 Q2 on September 30, 2010.
The Census Bureau will release State Government Finances for 2009 (i.e. spending and revenue) in late Fall 2010.
The Census Bureau will next update State and Local Government Finances (i.e. spending and revenue data) in July 2011.

Monday, April 5, 2010

Improved Display of Data Source Type

For years usgovernmentspending.com and usgovernmentrevenue.com have shown on the Numbers tab the data source type for the spending and revenue numbers. The data source type for each number is shown by color code as follows, in decreasing order of reliability, as follows: Actual, Interpolated, Budgeted, Estimated, or "Guesstimated."

Now we are showing the data source for each number on the home page and on the Charts tab. Bar chart values are show in blue for "actual" and red for "estimated" (including budgeted, estimated, and "guesstimated"). In addition, values shown as numbers on the Charts tab are tagged with their data source, a-i-b-e-g, as appropriate.

Typically, the values that you see on the site are "rolled up" from individual spending items into broad functional categories. The rolled-up values may include, e.g., actual and guesstimated. When rolled-up values have different data source types, the type displayed is always the less reliable one. For example, if any component of the rolled-up value was sourced as "guesstimated" then the rolled-up value will display as "guesstimated."

Saturday, February 6, 2010

Federal Budget Update: FY 2011

On February 1, 2010, the president released the federal budget for fiscal year 2011. The numbers on usgovernmentspending.com and usgovernmentrevenue.com now reflect the new budget.

Spending numbers at the subfunction level have been updated from Table 3.2 in the Historical Tables. Fiscal year 2009 has been updated with actual numbers for the fiscal year that ended 9/30/2009, and Fiscal year 2010 thru 2014 have been updated with the new estimates. Fiscal year 2015 estimates appear for the first time.

Spending numbers at the agency account level have been updated from outlays.csv in the Public Budget Database.

Revenue numbers have been updated from Table 2.1 Table 2.4, and Table 2.5 in the Historical Tables. Fiscal year 2009 has been updated with actual numbers, and Fiscal year 2010 thru 2014 with the new estimates. Fiscal year 2015 estimates appear for the first time.

Projected GDP numbers have been updated from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables. GDP for 2009 through 2014 has been updated. GDP for 2015 appears for the first time.

Federal Debt numbers have been updated from Table 7.1 in the Historical Tables. Debt for 2009 and projected through 2014 have been updated. Debt for 2015 appears for the first time.