Tuesday, September 24, 2013

State FY13 Tax Update

On September 24, 2013 usgovernmentspending.com updated FY2013 state revenue with quarterly tax data from the US Census Bureau.  Local tax data was updated by assuming that local taxes for 2013 changed by the same percent as state taxes of the same type.

The following table shows "guesstimated" US state and local total revenue before and after the change.

$ billion
FY 2012FY 2013FY 2014

GDP Update Delay

On July 31, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised its GDP methodology.  The published GDP and real GDP for each year going back to 1929 has changed.  For instance, the GDP for 2012 under the new methodology was reported as $16,244.6 billion; under the old methodology the GDP for 2012 was $15,684.8 billion.

Presumably, BEA will update its state GDP methodology when the 2013 numbers come out next June.

Presently, usgsovernmentspending.com uses Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables of the Federal Budget for projected GDP and measuringworth.com for historical GDP. We use measuringworth.com because its data series goes back to the 1790s.

We can't change to the new series yet because Table 10.1 won't get updated until the new FY15 budget comes out early next year.  If we changed right now there'd be a nasty jog in the data between historical and projected GDP.  Not good.  So for the present we are using the old GDP series at measuringworth.com and the current FY14 version of Table 10.1

When we do change, we'll use measuringworth.com for GDP from 1792 to 1928; we'll use the BEA GDP from 1929 to the present.  And we'll use Table 10.1 in the Federal Budget for projected GDP.

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook 2013

On September 17, 2013, the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook, which projects federal spending and revenue out into the 2080s.  As before, the CBO study shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the CBO Long Term Budget Outlook here.  You can download the data and also view CBO Long Term Budget Outlooks going back to 2000.