US, State Population Update for 2024

On December 18, 2024 the US Census Bureau released its US national and state population estimates for July 1, 2024.  On December 20, 2024 usgovernmentspending.com updated its US and state population data as follows:

• We updated 2020-2024 population data from US and states using data from US Census National Population Totals and Components of Change 2020-2024 in file NST-EST2024-POP.xlsx.
• We updated 2010-2020 population data for US and states using data from National Intercensal Population Totals: 2010-2020: from file NST-EST2020.xlsx.
• We projected 2022 thru 2030 for the US and states projecting population rate change for 2023-24 through 2030.

usgovernmentspending.com uses population data in computing per capita spending and revenue data. You can see per capita spending data in a chart here, and in a table of spending here.

You can check the data update schedule here.

Medicaid Update for FY 2023

On December 19, 2024, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) published its annual report on National Health Expenditures and its NHE Tables includes data on Medicaid from 1960 to 2022. On December 18, 2024, usgovernmentspending.com updated its Medicaid data.

Item	2023 Estimate	2023 Actual
Federal Medicaid	$615.8 bn	$615.8 bn
State Medicaid (net)	$156.0 bn	$189.6 bn
Total Medicaid	$771.8 bn	$805.4 bn

The federal Medicaid number comes from the Federal Budget Subfunction 558: Grants to states for Medicaid. The state contribution comes from the NHE Tables.

usgovernmentspending.com publishes "guesstimates" of state and local spending from the latest year published by the Census Bureau (currently FY 2022) to the last year in the Historical Tables of the federal budget (for the FY 2025 budget that is 2029). So we have developed "guesstimates" of Medicaid spending going out to 2029, assuming that the overall Medicaid spending increases at the same rate as the federal "Grants to States for Medicaid" increases.

National Health Expenditure data is updated each year in mid December.

State FY24 Taxes Update

On October 31, 2024 usgovernmentspending.com updated FY2024 state revenue with quarterly tax data released by the US Census Bureau on September 11, 2024.  Local tax data was updated by assuming that local taxes for 2024 changed by the same percent as state taxes of the same type.

$ billion	FY2024 Estimate	FY2024 Actual
State Income Tax Revenue	$641	$329
Total State Revenue	$3,050	$2,501

State and local spending projections for FY2025 to FY2029 have been reestimated using the "Guesstimate" method.

State and Local Finances for 2022

On June 30, 2024 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2022 using the new Census Bureau State and Local Government Finances summaries for FY 2022 released on June 28, 2024.  (See also Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances). The release includes state and local spending for the United States as a whole and the 50 individual states and the District of Columbia.

State and local spending and revenue for FY2022 are now actual historical spending as reported by the Census Bureau. In addition, the Census Bureau published updated tables for 2020 and 2021.

We have updated the "guesstimated" state and local finances for FY2023-29 as indicated in our "guesstimate" blog entries.

We have also updated data for individual local government units with data for 2022. 

Beginning in 2022 the Census Bureau has changed the value for Line 56 Direct Expenditure and Line 7 General Revenue from own sources, as follows:

We have decided to end our publication of non-insurance trust cash and security holdings.

However, to keep the time series at usgovernmentspending.com consistent, we have decided to add insurance-trust values back into Line 56 and Line 7 values. 

CBO Long Term Outlook for 2024

On March 20, 2024 the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook for 2024, which projects federal spending and revenue out to 20543.  As before, the CBO study shows that federal health-care programs and interest costs will eat the budget, with federal spending exceeding 25 percent GDP by the mid 2030s while federal revenue stays below 19 percent GDP.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the CBO Long Term Budget Outlook here.  You can download the data and also view CBO Long Term Budget Outlooks going back to 1999.

Federal Deficit, Receipts, Outlays Actuals for FY 2024

On October 18, 2024, the US Treasury reported in its Monthly Treasury Statement (and xlsx) for September that the federal deficit for FY 2024 ending September 30, 2024, was $1,833 billion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the FY 2025 federal budget published in February 2024:

Federal Finances FY 2024 Outcomes
	Budget billions	Outcome billions
Receipts	$5,082	$4,919
Outlays	$6,941	$6,752
Deficit	$1,859	$1,833

usgovernmentspending.com now shows the new numbers for total FY 2024 total outlays and receipts on its Estimate vs. Actual page.

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes "Table 4: Receipts of the United States Government, September 2024 and Other Periods." This table of receipts by source is used for usgovernmentspending.com to post details of federal receipt actuals for FY 2024.

This MTS report on FY 2024 actuals is a problem for usgovernmentspending.com because this site uses Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction from the Budget of the United States as its basic source for federal subfunction outlays. But the Monthly Treasury Statement only includes "Table 9. Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government, September 2024 and Other Periods". Subfunction amounts don't get reported until the FY26 budget in February 2025. Until then usgovernmentspending.com estimates actual outlays by "subfunction" for FY 2024 by factoring subfunction budgeted amounts for FY24 by the ratio between relevant actual and budgeted "function" amounts where actual outlays by subfunction cannot be gleaned from the Monthly Treasury Statement.

Final detailed FY 2024 actuals will not appear on usgovernmentspending.com until the FY 2026 federal budget is published in February 2025 with the actual outlays for FY 20243 in Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction.

Gross State Product for 2023

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2023 on March 29, 2024.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2023 for each state using the projected national GDP numbers from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2025 Budget and the historical GDP data series from the BEA as a baseline.

Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2023 GSP growth rates.

Process:

1. Click on link.
2. Click on "Interactive Data" link
3. Click on "Interactive Tables: GDP by State" link
4. Click on "Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by State"
5. Click on "Summary Tables for GDP, personal income, and related data."
6. Click on "SASUMMARY"
7. Area: Select "All Areas"
8. Statistic: Select "Real GDP..." and "Current-dollar GDP..."
9. Click on Next Step button
10. Time Period: Select "All Years"
11. Click on Next Step button
12. Click on Download button
13. Select CSV 

Medicare/Social Security 2024 Trustee Reports Released

On May 6, 2024, the Center for Medicare Services released its annual Medicare Trustees Report, which projects Medicare spending out to 2095.  As in the past, the report shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

In this report the Trustees forecast that Medicare will top out at a little above 6 percent of GDP in the 2080s.

On June 1, 2024, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Medicare Outlook here based on data in the 2023 Medicare Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected Medicare Trustee forecasts going back to 2005.

On May 6, 2024, the Social Security Administration released its annual OASDI Trustees Report, which projects Social Security spending out to 2095.  As in the past, the report shows that Social Security spending will max out at about 6 percent of GDP. UsGovernmentspending.com uses the Supplemental Single Year Tables.

On June 1, 2024, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Social Security Outlook here based on data in the 2024 OASDI Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected OASDI Trustee forecasts going back to 1997.

Federal Budget for FY25 Released

On March 11, 2024, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the Public Budget Database in the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2025. 

Here is how headline budget estimates for the upcoming FY 2024 fiscal year have changed since the release of the FY 2024 budget a year ago in Winter 2023.

Federal Budget Changes for 2024

$ billion	Estimate for 2024 in FY2024 Budget	Estimate for 2024 in FY2025 Budget	Change
Federal Outlays	$6,371.8	$6,940.9	+$569.1
Federal Receipts	$4,802.5	$5,081.6	+$279.1
Federal Deficit	$1,569.4	$1,859.4	+$290.0

You can see line item changes from budget to budget here. You can compare budget estimates with actuals here.

Account level spending estimates through FY 2029 come from the Outlays table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on March 11, 2024.

Account level budget authority estimates through FY 2029 come from the Budget Authority table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on March 11, 2024. 

Agency Debt Update for 2023

On March 11, 2024, usgovernmentspending.com updated its data for agency debt from the Federal Reserve Board database. Data is now available for the period 1945-2023. You can see our Agency Debt page here, and a comparison with the official "on-the-books" debt here.

For the period 2024 to 2029 usgovernmentspending.com has "guesstimated" the agency debt, assuming that it increases at the same rate as it did in 2022 to 2023.

See "Federal 'Agency Debt' Added" for explanation of  data derivation.

Data is downloaded from the FRB data download page for "Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1)" as follows.

1. Select a preformatted data package: "L.211 (A) Agency- and GSE-Backed Securities, n.s.a."
2. Click: Format package.
3. Select: 100 years.
4. Click: Go to Download.
5. Click: Download File.

US GDP for 2023 Updated

On January 19, 2024 usgovernmentspending.com updated its GDP series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, under "Supplemental Information and Data" including nominal US GDP for third quarter 2023 of $25.464 trillion and real US GDP  for third quarter 2023 of $20.015 trillion in 2017 dollars. Real GDP is now expressed in 2017 dollars.

Up to now, usgovernmentspending.com has shown GDP for calendar years. But the OMB forecast for US GDP in Table 10.1 - Gross Domestic Product and Deflators Used in the Historical Tables uses GDP for the US federal government's fiscal year that ends every year on September 30. So we have changed GDP to the US fiscal year.

Thus GDP, real and nominal, looks like this:

• US GDP source from 1790 to 1928 is calendar GDP from measuringworth.com.
• US GDP source from 1929 to 1946 is calendar GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, under "Supplemental Information and Data"
• US GDP source from 1947 to the present is third quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, under "Supplemental Information and Data."

usgovernmentspending.com computes inflation rate as:

((This Year GDP - Last Year GDP)/Last Year GDP - (This Year Real GDP - Last Year Real GDP)/Last Year Real GDP)*100.

Medicaid Update for FY 2022

On December 13, 2023, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) published its annual report on National Health Expenditures and its NHE Tables includes data on Medicaid from 1960 to 2022. On January 12, 2024, usgovernmentspending.com updated its Medicaid data.

Item	2022 Estimate	2022 Actual
Federal Medicaid	$591.9 bn	$591.9 bn
State Medicaid (net)	$274.7 bn	$213.8 bn
Total Medicaid	$866.6 bn	$805.7 bn

The federal Medicaid number comes from the Federal Budget Subfunction 558: Grants to states for Medicaid. The state contribution comes from the NHE Tables.

usgovernmentspending.com publishes "guesstimates" of state and local spending from the latest year published by the Census Bureau (currently FY 2022) to the last year in the Historical Tables of the federal budget (for the FY 2024 budget that is 2028). So we have developed "guesstimates" of Medicaid spending going out to 2028, assuming that the overall Medicaid spending increases at the same rate as the federal "Grants to States for Medicaid" increases.

National Health Expenditure data is updated each year in mid December.