US, State Population Update for 2014

On December 24, 2014 the US Census Bureau released its national and state population estimates for 2014.  On December 24, 2014 usgovernmentspending.com updated its US and state population data as follows:

• We updated 2014 population data for US and states using data from US Census Bureau Population Estimates: vintage 2014 in file NST-EST2014-01.xls.
• We projected 2014 thru 2019 for US and states assuming population rate change for 2013-24.
• We updated 2015 thru 2019 for US using data from US Census Bureau 2012 National Population Projections in file NP2014-T1.xls.

usgovernmentspending.com uses population data in computing per capita spending and revenue data.  You can see per capita spending data in a chart here, and in a table of spending here.

You can check the data update schedule here.

State and Local Finances Update for FY 2012

On December 11, 2014 usgovernmentspending.com updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2012 using the newly released Census Bureau State and Local Government Finances for FY 2012.  This includes state and local spending for the United States as a whole and individual states and the District of Columbia.

State and local spending and revenue for FY2012 are now actual historical spending as reported by the Census Bureau.  Previously state spending and revenue for FY2012 was actual and local spending and revenue was estimated.  The following table shows the difference between estimated and actual spending and revenue for FY2012:

FY 2012	Estimated $ billion	Actual $ billion
Spending	$1,657	$1,647
Revenue	$1,038	$1,075

We have updated the "guesstimated" state and local finances for FY2013-19.

Also updated were state and local finances for 2009, 2010, and 2011 using newly released Census Bureau revised data.

Federal Deficit Announced for FY14

On October 13, 2014, the US Treasury reported in its Monthly Treasury Statement for September that the federal deficit for FY14 ending September 30 was $483 billion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the FY 15 federal budget published in February 2014:

Federal Finances FY14 Outcomes
	Budget billions	Outcome billions
Receipts	$3,002	$3,021
Outlays	$3,651	$3,504
Deficit	$649	$483

usfederalbudget.us now shows the new numbers for total FY14 outlays and receipts on its Estimate vs. Actual page.

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes "Table 9. Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government, September 2014 and Other Periods".   This table of outlays by function makes it possible for usgovernmentspending.com to estimate outlays by "subfunction" for FY2014 by factoring budgeted amounts by the difference between budgeted and actual "function" amounts where actual outlays by subfunction cannot be gleaned from the Monthly Treasury Statement.

Final detailed FY2014 numbers will not appear until the FY2016 federal budget is published in February 2015

State FY14 Tax Update

On September 27, 2014 usgovernmentspending.com updated FY2014 state revenue with quarterly tax data from the US Census Bureau.  Local tax data was updated by assuming that local taxes for 2014 changed by the same percent as state taxes of the same type.

The following table shows "guesstimated" US state and local total revenue before and after the change.

Revenue $ billion	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014	FY 2015
Before	2,668	2,716	2,809	-
After	2,415	2,589	2,675	2,714

Medicare/Social Security 2014 Trustee Reports Released

On July 28, 2014, the Center for Medicare Services released its annual Medicare Trustees Report, which projects Medicare spending out into the 2080s.  As in the past, the report shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the Medicare Outlook here based on data in the 2014 Medicare Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected Medicare Trustee forecasts going back to 2005.

On July 28, 2014, the Social Security Administration released its annual OASDI Trustees Report, which projects Social Security spending out into the 2080s.  As in the past, the report shows that Social Security spending will max out at about 6 percent of GDP.

UsGovernmentspending.com is publishing for the first time a chart of the Social Security Outlook here based on data in the 2014 OASDI Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view OASDI Trustee forecasts for 2005 and 1997.

CBO Long-term Outlook 2014

On July 15, 2014, the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook, which projects federal spending and revenue out into the 2080s.  As before, the CBO study shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the CBO Long Term Budget Outlook here.  You can download the data and also view CBO Long Term Budget Outlooks going back to 1999.

Gross State Product Update for 2013

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2013 on June 11, 2014.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2013 and projected nominal and real GSP through 2019 for each state using the projected national GDP numbers from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2014 Budget and the historical GDP data series from the BEA as a baseline.

As before we have projected individual state GSPs out to 2019 by applying a factor to reflect each state's deviation from the national growth rate. (E.g. In 2013 the national real GDP expanded by 1.9 percent. But North Dakota grew by 9.7 percent, a deviation of nearly 7 percent. The deviation is reduced by 40 percent for each year after 2013, making the assumption that each state will slowly revert to the national norm.)

Usgovernmentspending.com displays individual state data going back to 1957, but BEA has nominal GSP data going back to only 1963, and real GSP data going back to 1987.  Also the 1987-1997 real GSP data is in 1997 dollars, not 2009 dollars like the 1997-present data, and the pre-1997 data is based on a different model than post 1997 data.  For the pre-1997 data we have factored it to remove any "bumps" over the 1997 transition.

Because usgovernmentspending.com needs GSP data to provide e.g., spending as a percent of GDP, we have extended the two BEA GSP data series back to 1957.  We have assumed that the rate of change of GSP prior to 1963 is the same as the national GDP and we have assumed that the rate of change of real GSP prior to 1987 is the same as the nation real GDP growth rate.

Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2013 GSP growth rates.

Now Showing National Gross Output from 2005

On April 25, 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released a new data series for Gross Output.  The initial release provides Gross Output for 2005 to the present.

usgovernmentspending.com now reports Gross Output on its Spending Details page and permits charting of spending and revenue as "percent of Gross Output".

Data sources for Gross Domestic Product and Gross Output used by usgovernmentspending.com are shown here. 

GDP, Gross Output Sources

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Output are obtained from a variety of sources.

National GDP

We use a forecast of GDP in Historical Table 10.1 from the federal budget  for the current year out six years.

We use historical GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for GDP from 1929 to the present(xls).

We use historical GDP from Measuring Worth from 1792 to 1928.

State GDP

We estimate state GDP by blending the latest historical GDP for each state with the forecast GDP in Historical Table 10.1 from the federal budget for the current year out six years.

We use historical GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis from 1963 to the present.

National Gross Output

We "guesstimate" future Gross Output by applying the ratio of (Gross Output)/GDP from the latest Gross Output value to the forecast GDP in Historical Table 10.1 of the federal budget for the current year out six years.

We use historical Gross Output from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for Gross Output from 1997 to the present here(xlsx). Gross Output from 1987 to 1997 is here(xls).

UPDATED: 4/28/2015.

Federal Revenue by State for 2013

On April 6, 2014, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from "SOI Tax Stats - Gross Collections, by Type of Tax and State, Fiscal Year - IRS Data Book Table 5" of the IRS Data Book for 2013.  The data can be viewed on the Federal Revenue by State page here.

Ryan Budget Plan for FY15

On April 2, 2014, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the draft budget resolution for FY15 prepared by the House Budget Committee, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), chairman.  The site now shows data from the current Ryan FY15 Budget Resolution and also Ryan-authored budget resolutions for FY12, FY13, and FY14.

You can view and download data on the Ryan Budget page here.  You can compare the Ryan Budget with the administration's FY15 budget here.

The US Senate Budget Committee, Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA). chair, will not be publishing a budget plan for FY15.

Medicare Part C Added

On March 15, 2014 we updated usgovernmentspending.com to show details of the federal Medicare Part C program, Medicare Advantage.

Historical Table 3.2, published each year in the Historical Tables section of the Budget of the United States, is the primary source we use for showing federal outlays down to the "subfunction" level.  Table 3.2 includes about 80 line items.  But Medicare appears as a single line item, subfunction 571.

Previously, we have broken out outlays for Part A Hospital Insurance, Part B Supplementary Medical Insurance, and Part D SMI Drug programs from single subfunctions.   We have constructed these outlays from detailed items published in the Public Budget Database.

Details of Part C Medicare are not provided in the Public Budget Database, but they are shown in the annual Medicare Trustees Report, and we have extracted data from the reports to construct a data series for Part C Medicare Advantage.  You can inspect the extracted data from Medicare Trustees Reports here.

Strictly speaking, Part C Medicare Advantage started in 2006.  But the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 created Medicare+Choice, really a precursor of Medicare Advantage, and the Medicare Trustees Report tracks the cost of Medicare+Choice's payments to private health plans and then Medicare Advantage's payments to private health plans.  Thus we have extended Part C back to 1998.

In the Public Budget Database Part C Medicare Advantage outlays are included as part of Part A and Part B outlays.  They are recorded in the Medicare Trustees Report as “Medicare Payments to Private Health Plans” from Part A and Part B trust funds.  In creating the new Part C line items we have reduced the HI (Part A) Benefits and SMI (Part B) Benefits line items so that the overall totals remain the same.

Also, Medicare Part A and Part B subtract "Premiums and Collections" from their published Outlays.  For Part A this is a nominal amount.  But we have prorated the Part B Premiums and Collections between Part B and Part C, and we have provided a line item for Part C "Prorated Premiums and Collections."  The proration for Part B Premiums and Collections looks like this:

SMI (Part C) Prorated Premiums and Collections = SMI (Part B) Premiums and Collections * (SMI (Part C) Private Health Plan Bid + SMI (Part C) Private Health Plan Rebate) / ( SMI (Part C) Private Health Plan Bid + SMI (Part C) Private Health Plan Rebate+ SMI (Part B) Benefits)

The SMI (Part B) Premiums and Collections is reduced by the amount of SMI (Part C) Prorated Premiums and Collections.

usgovernmentspending.com has now surfaced the Part A, Part B. Part C, and Part D outlays up to the subfunction level by extending our unofficial subfunctions for the Medicare program as follows:

New sub- function	Description
572	HI (Part A) Benefits
573	HI (Part A) Administration
574	HI (Part A) Premiums and Collections
575	SMI (Part B) Benefits
576	SMI (Part B) Administration
577	SMI (Part B) Prorated Premiums and Collections
581	SMI Drug (Part D) Benefits
582	SMI Drug (Part D) Administration
583	SMI Drug(Part D) Premiums and Collections
584	Other
585	HI (Part C) Private Health Plan Bid
586	HI (Part C) Private Health Plan Rebate
587	SMI (Part C) Private Health Plan Bid
588	SMI (Part C) Private Health Plan Rebate
589	SMI (Part C) Prorated Premiums and Collections

You can find the new detailed Medicare numbers on the Medicare Spending Details page here and the Medicare Spending by Year page here.  You can also look at the Entitlements History page here.

Reminder: The fifteen "subfunctions" 572 through 589 are not official US government subfunctions.

See the blog entry that announced Medicare Part A, Part B, Part D details here.

Federal Budget FY15 Released

On March 10, 2014, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the Historical Tables in the FY15 federal budget. Actual revenue for FY 2013 and estimated revenue through FY 2019 come from Tables 2.1, 2.4, and 2.5. Actual spending for FY 2013 and estimated spending at the subfunction level through FY 2019 comes from Table 3.2. Budget Authority estimates come from Table 5.1, federal debt estimates come from Table 7.1 and GDP estimates come from Table 10.1.

We have also generated synthetic subfunction data to separate Social Security subfunction 651 into OASI and DI and Medicare subfunction 571 into Part A, Part B, and Part D using the Public Budget Database.

You can see you each line item changes from budget to budget here. You can compare budget estimates with actuals here.

Account level spending estimates through FY 2019 come from the Outlays table in the Public Budget Database.  You can access account level data by drilling down on the [+] controls here.

Account level budget authority estimates through FY 2019 come from the Budget Authority table in the Public Budget Database.  You can access Budget Authority data by drilling down on the [+] controls here.

GDP Data Source and Methodology Revision

On July 31, 2013, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised its GDP methodology.  The published GDP and real GDP for each year going back to 1929 has changed.  For instance, the GDP for 2012 under the new methodology was reported as $16,244.6 billion; under the old methodology the GDP for 2012 was $15,684.8 billion.

Presumably, BEA will update its state GDP methodology when the 2013 numbers come out in June 2014.

Up to now, usgsovernmentspending.com has used Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables of the Federal Budget for projected GDP and measuringworth.com for historical GDP. We used measuringworth.com because its data series goes back to the 1790s.

Starting now, we are using measuringworth.com for GDP from 1792 to 1928; we are using the BEA GDP from 1929 to the present.  And we are using Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables of the Federal Budget for projected GDP.

Federal Budget FY15 Released. Details Delayed

On March 4, 2014, the US government released parts of the Budget of the United States Government for fiscal year 2015.  However the Historical Tables and other details will not be released until March 11, 2014.

usgovernmentspending.com will update budget details when the Historical Tables are published.

State Finances for FY 2012

On January 23, 2014 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2012 here, including spending and revenue for each individual state and for all states combined.

On January 23, 2014 we updated state and local spending and revenue data for FY2012 through FY2018 as follows:

1. We replaced "guesstimated" state spending and revenue data for FY2012 using the new FY2012 data from the Census Bureau.
2. We replaced "guesstimated" local spending and revenue data for FY 2012 with estimates for each spending and revenue category using the trends in state finances between FY 2011 and FY 2012.
3. We replaced "guesstimated" state revenue data for FY 2013 with data from the Census Bureau's quarterly state tax summary here.
4. We replaced "guesstimated" local revenue data for FY 2013 with estimates for each category using trends for each category of state revenue between FY 2012 and FY 2013.
5. We replaced "guesstimated" state and local spending and revenue for FY 2014 thru FY2018 with new guesstimates based on the latest Census Bureau data for FY 2012 state finances and FY 2013 quarterly tax data.

The Census Bureau expects to release local spending and revenue data for FY 2012 in Summer 2014.