State Finances Update for FY 2010

On December 14, 2011 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2010 here, including spending and revenue for each individual state and for all states combined.

On December 27, 2011 we updated state and local spending and revenue data as follows:

1. We replaced "guesstimated" state spending and revenue data for FY2010 using the data from the Census Bureau.
2. We replaced "guesstimated" local spending and revenue data for FY 2010 with estimates for each spending and revenue category using the trends in state finances between FY 2009 and FY 2010.
3. We replaced "guesstimated" state revenue data for FY 2011 with data from the Census Bureau's quarterly state tax summary here.
4. We replaced "guesstimated" local revenue data for FY 2011 with estimates for each category using trends for each category of state revenue between FY 2010 and FY 2011.
5. We replaced "guesstimated" state and local spending and revenue for FY 2012 thru FY2017 with new guesstimates based on the latest Census Bureau data for FY 2010 state finances and FY 2011 quarterly tax data.

The Census Bureau expects to release local spending and revenue data for FY 2010 in July 2012.

Highlights: State spending on Welfare was up from a "guesstimated" $164 billion to $237 billion.  Business and Other Revenue was up from a "guesstimated" $174 billion to $456 billion.  This reflects the $289 billion profit reported on state pension plans for FY 2010, a partial recovery from the FY 2009 loss of $524 billion.

Revision to State and Local Data for 2001, 2003

We have revised state and local spending and revenue data for 2001 and 2003.

For 2001 and 2003 the Census Bureau did not publish a local government survey sample, but only the raw Individual Unit Files.  UsGovernmentSpending.com has used the data from the Individual Unit Files, but they are incomplete for some states, and showed huge declines in spending in some categories such as Education.

We have revised the presentation of state and local spending and revenue data for 2001 and 2003 as follows.

1. State spending and revenue for each item is shown as published in the State Government Finances for 2001 and 2003.
2. Local spending for each item is shown for 2001 by taking the average for 2000 and 2002.
3. Local spending for each item is shown for 2003 by taking the average for 2002 and 2004.
4. Local revenue for each item is shown for 2001 by taking the 2000 local value and applying the rate of change between 2000 and 2001 for the state revenue item to the corresponding local revenue item.
5. Local revenue for each item is shown for 2003 by taking the 2002 local value and applying the rate of change between 2002 and 2003 for the state revenue item to the corresponding local revenue item.
6. State-and-local spending and revenue items for 2001 and 2003 are computed as the sum of the state value and the local value.

State-and-local and local spending and revenue items are tagged as "interpolated" for 2001 and 2003.

Thanks to Ed Nevins for his advice and counsel.

State and Local Update for 2009

On October 31, 2011 usgovernmentspending.com updated the state and local spending and revenue from FY 2009 to FY 2016 using the newly released Census Bureau State and Local Government Finances for FY 2009.

State and local spending and revenue for FY2009 are now actual historical spending as reported by the Census Bureau.

State tax numbers for 2010 and 2011 are those released by the Census Bureau in "Table 3 - Latest Tax Collections by State" of the Quarterly Summary of State & Local Tax Revenue.  Local taxes for 2010 and 2011 are estimated by assuming the same year on year change as the state taxes for the same type.  Taxes and revenues not included in the Quarterly Summary are "guesstimated" from trends established for 2008 to 2009.

State and local numbers for 2010 through 2016 were created to project forward the change between 2008 and 2009 (except where actual and estimated numbers are available from the Quarterly State and Local Revenue Summary).  See Change to "Guesstimated" State and Local Spending for details of this procedure.

UPDATE: Numbers for state and local finances for 2007 and 2008 updated using Census Bureau revised data.

US Deficit for FY11

On October 14, 2011, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and OMB Director Jacob Lew announced that the federal deficit for FY11 was $1.299 trillion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the federal budget published in February 2011:

Federal Finances FY11 Outcomes
	Budget billions	Latest billions
Receipts	$2,174	$2,302
Outlays	$3,819	$3,601
Deficit	$1,645	$1,299

usgovernmentspending.com now shows the new numbers for total outlays and receipts, but will not update detailed FY2011 numbers until the FY2013 federal budget is published in February 2012.

Change to "Guesstimated" State and Local Spending

We create "guesstimated" state and local spending at usgovernmentspending.com to provide an estimate of state and local spending to match up against the five year forecast of federal spending that comes out each year in the federal budget. Otherwise the most recent data for state spending is at least a year old and local spending at least two years old.

Up to now, the "guesstimated" state and local spending for years more recent than the latest US Census Bureau report on State and Local Government Finances has been a simple projection of the change between the last two reported years. If, e.g., education spending increased by 5% between 2007 and 2008 we have constructed an education spending value for all future years by increasing each year by five percent.

Effective immediately we are changing the "guesstimated" method. The new method assumes that state and local spending and revenue in the next few years will trend back towards the average value recorded in the recent past, expressed as a percent of GDP (or GSP).

Here is the new method for computing "guesstimated" spending for all states combined and for each individual state.

1. Establish a five year Reference Period. At present the last year for which state spending is available is 2009, so the reference period is 2005 through 2009. (UPDATE 1/23/14: Reference period is now 2011 to 2012)
2. For each spending and revenue item calculate an average value for the Reference Period as percent of GDP for a combined state or local value, or as percent of Gross State Project (GSP) for individual states.
3. Compute a Projected Value (e.g., for 2010) that would continue the percentage change for the latest two years (2008 and 2009) for each spending or revenue item.
4. Compute a Revert-to-mean Value (e.g., for 2010) that would return the spending or revenue item to the average calculated for the Reference Period as percent of projected GDP for the US or state GSP for the year.
5. Calculate and save in the database (e.g., for 2010) a Mean Value for the spending/revenue item that is half way between the Projected Value and the Revert-to-mean Value.
6. Repeat procedure for all spending and revenue items.
7. Compute total spending and total revenue from new values for 2010.
8. Repeat for other states.

The projected value for US GDP is the value for each year from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables of the federal budget. The projected value for each state GSP is computed by applying the change in federal GDP growth rate to the last year's state GSP and then moving the state GSP growth rate towards the federal growth rate by 40 percent of the difference between the state and the federal growth rate.

The "guesstimated" value for state and local revenue code "X08 Employee Retirement - Earnings on Investments" is too volatile to be "guesstimated" using this method. It is computed by changing the latest year's value by 60 percent of the difference between the latest year's value and the average value for the Reference Period. This value, for all states combined, was a $500 billion loss in 2009. This method reverts "X08" to a substantial gain in 2010 and future years. (UPDATE: 1/23/14: X08 is now computed like other items)

Federal Budget FY12 Released

On February 14, 2011, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the historical tables in the FY12 federal budget. Actual revenue for FY 2010 and estimated revenue through FY 2016 come from Tables 4.1, 4.4, and 4.5. Actual spending for FY 2010 and estimated spending at the subfunction level through FY 2016 comes from Table 3.2. Account level spending estimates through FY 2016 come from the outlays table in the Public Budget Database. Federal debt estimates come from Table 7.1 and GDP estimates come from Table 10.1.

Federal Budget Analyst Added

On February 12, 2011 we added Federal Budget Analyst to usgovernmentspending.com. Just in time for the FY12 federal budget release, this feature allows the user to view spending and revenue estimates for out years for each subfunction in the federal budget and also to compare estimates vs. actual for a specific fiscal year in different budgets. Click here to access this feature.

Also, we have added the CBO Long Term Outlook for the federal budget as published by the Congressional Budget Office here.

State Finances Update for FY 2009

On January 12, 2011 we updated the state spending and revenue using the Census Bureau numbers for FY 2009 released early January. Local spending and revenue for 2009 was updated for each category by creating numbers for 2009 to change by the same percentage as the corresponding state number. State and local numbers for 2010 through 2016 were created to project forward the change between 2008 and 2009.