Federal Budget for FY24 Released

On March 10, 2023, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the Public Budget Database in the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2024. 

Here is how headline budget estimates for the upcoming FY 2023 fiscal year have changed since the release of the FY 2023 budget a year ago in Winter 2021.

Federal Budget Changes for 2023

$ billion	Estimate for 2023 in FY2023 Budget	Estimate for 2023 in FY2024 Budget	Change
Federal Outlays	$5,792.1	$6,371.8	+$579.7
Federal Receipts	$4,638.2	$4,802.5	+$164.3
Federal Deficit	$1,153.9	$1,569.4	$315.5

You can see line item changes from budget to budget here. You can compare budget estimates with actuals here.

Account level spending estimates through FY 2028 come from the Outlays table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on March 10, 2023.

Account level budget authority estimates through FY 2028 come from the Budget Authority table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on March 10, 2023.

US GDP for 2022 Updated

On March 3, 2023 usgovernmentspending.com updated its GDP series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, under "Supplemental Information and Data" including nominal US GDP for calendar 2022 of $25.464 trillion and real US GDP  for calendar 2022 of $20.015 trillion in 2012 dollars. Real GDP is now expressed in 2012 dollars. GDP for years going back to 2015 have been revised by BEA.

Usgovernmentspending.com uses the BEA US GDP data series from 1929 to the present and measuringworth.com as its US GDP source from 1790 to 1928.

State Spending for 2021

 On January 6, 2023 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2021 here and here, including spending and revenue for each individual state and for all states combined.

On January 7, 2023 we updated state and local spending and revenue data for FY2021 through FY2027 as follows:

1. We replaced "guesstimated" state spending and revenue data for FY2021 using the new FY2021 data from the Census Bureau.
2. We replaced "guesstimated" local spending and revenue data for FY 2021 with estimates for each spending and revenue category using the trends in state finances between FY 2020 and FY 2021.
3. We replaced "guesstimated" state revenue data for FY 2022 with data from the Census Bureau's quarterly state tax summary here.
4. We replaced "guesstimated" local revenue data for FY 2022 with estimates for each category using trends for each category of state revenue between FY 2020 and FY 2021.
5. We replaced "guesstimated" state and local spending and revenue for FY 2022 thru FY2027 with new guesstimates based on the latest Census Bureau data for FY 2021 state finances and FY 2022 quarterly tax data.

But there is a problem.

Up through 2018 the Census Bureau reports state government pensions with item codes: X11, X12, X14. And it reported employee retirement income and contributions with item codes: X01, X02, X05, X08. 

No more. 

Instead the Census Bureau reports the following item codes: X01, X30, X40, X52, X70.

But we can't find the current "code lists" that are used in the Census Bureau's State Government Finances report. The Code List page only has the old code list. As of this hour.

But, using advanced juggle-ology, it seems that: 

Code X40 replaces X11, X12, and X14 to yield pension payments. This almost balances with overall Total Spending for the US and sample states.

Codes X01, X30, X52, X70 replace X01, X02, X05, X08 to yield pension contributions and income. This almost balances overall Total Revenue for the US and sample states.

So the state finances data on usgovernmentspending.com published for 2020 contains juggled data. 

Here is the comparison of our "guesstimate" vs. "actual:"

State Finances for FY2021
Estimate vs. Actual

$ billion	Guesstimate	Actual
Spending	$2,228	$2,265
Revenue	$2.060	$2,101

We expect the Census Bureau to release local spending and revenue data for FY 2021 not earlier than Summer 2023.