CBO Long Term Budget Outlook for 2023

On June 28, 2023 the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook for 2023, which projects federal spending and revenue out to 2053.  As before, the CBO study shows that federal health-care programs and interest costs will eat the budget, with federal spending exceeding 25 percent GDP by the mid 2030s while federal revenue stays below 19 percent GDP.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the CBO Long Term Budget Outlook here.  You can download the data and also view CBO Long Term Budget Outlooks going back to 1999.

Gross State Product for 2022

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2022 on March 31, 2023.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2022 for each state using the projected national GDP numbers from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2024 Budget and the historical GDP data series from the BEA as a baseline.

Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2022 GSP growth rates.

Process:

1. Click on link.
2. Click on "Interactive Data" link
3. Click on "Interactive Tables: GDP by State" link
4. Click on "Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by State"
5. Click on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) summary
6. Areas: Select "All Areas"
7. Statistic: Select "Real GDP..." and "Current-dollar GDP..."
8. Click on Next Step button
9. Time Period: Select "All Years"
10. Click on Next Step button
11. Click on Download Data button
12. Select CSV 

Medicare Part C Update from 2023 Medicare Trustees Report

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its estimate of Medicare Part C, the Medicare Advantage program using data in the Medicare Trustees Report of 2023 that was released at the end of March 2023. You can see the results here.

The Budget of the United States Government reports Medicare outlays as a single line item, subfunction 571 in Historical Table 3.2, but Usgovernmentspending.com shows a breakdown of the Medicare program into its constituent parts, as follows:

1. Part A: Hospital Insurance
2. Part B: Supplementary Medical Insurance
3. Part C: Medicare Advantage
4. Part D: SMI Drug Plan

These data are constructed from data in the Public Budget Database, which provide details on Part A, Part B, and Part D, with Part C embedded in the Part A and Part B outlays. Part C is constructed from data in Table IV.C2 in the Medicare Trustees Report 2023 which reports the payments made to private Medicare health plans and the projected payments in future years.

You can inspect the extracted data from Medicare Trustees Reports Table IV.C2 here. And see the blog entry that introduced the Medicare Part C breakout to usgovernmentspending.com here.

Here is a breakdown of Medicare budgeted outlays on usgovernmentspending.com for FY 2023 before and after today's update.

Budgeted Outlays in percent GDP	Part A	Part B	Part C	Part D	Total Medicare
FY2023 before update	0.76	0.59	1.53	0.35	3.25% GDP
FY2023 after update	0.75	0.59	1.45	0.34	3.15% GDP

The update indicates a  small increase in budgeted Medicare Part C over the previous estimate in the Medicare Trustees Report in 2022.