CBO Long Term Budget Outlook for 2025

On March 27, 2025 the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook for 2025, which projects federal spending and revenue out to 2055.  As before, the data for the CBO study shows that federal health-care programs and interest costs will eat the budget, with federal spending exceeding 25 percent GDP by the 2040s while federal revenue stays a little over 19 percent GDP.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the CBO Long Term Budget Outlook here.  You can download the data and also view CBO Long Term Budget Outlooks going back to 1999.

State FY25 Taxes Update

On November 22, 2025 usgovernmentspending.com updated FY2025 state revenue with quarterly tax data released by the US Census Bureau on September 2, 2025.  Local tax data was updated by assuming that local taxes for 2024 changed by the same percent as state taxes of the same type.

$ billion	FY2025 Estimate	FY2025 Actual
State Income Tax Revenue	$908	$798
Total State Revenue	$2,815	$3.072

State and local spending projections for FY2026 to FY2029 have been reestimated using the "Guesstimate" method.

Gross State Product for 2024

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2024 on March 29, 2025.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2023 for each state using the projected national GDP numbers from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2025 Budget and the historical GDP data series from the BEA as a baseline.

Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2023 GSP growth rates.

Process:

1. Click on link.
2. Click on "Interactive Data" link
3. Click on "Interactive Tables: GDP by State" link
4. Click on "Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by State"
5. Click on "Summary Tables for GDP, personal income, and related data."
6. Click on "SASUMMARY"
7. Area: Select "All Areas"
8. Statistic: Select "Real GDP..." and "Gross Domestic Product (GDP..."
9. Click on Next Step button
10. Time Period: Select "All Years"
11. Click on Next Step button
12. Click on Download button
13. Select CSV 

Federal Deficit, Receipts, Outlays Actuals for FY 2025

On October 16, 2025, the US Treasury reported in its Monthly Treasury Statement (and xlsx) for September that the federal deficit for FY 2025 ending September 30, 2025, was $1,775 billion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the FY 2025 federal budget published in February 2024:

Federal Finances FY 2025 Outcomes
	Budget billions	Outcome billions
Receipts	$5,485	$5,235
Outlays	$7,226	$7,010
Deficit	$1,781	$1,775

We use the spending projections from the FY 2025 budget because the Federal government did not publish spending projections in its Budget for Fiscal Year 2026 as originally published in May 2025.

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes "Table 4: Receipts of the United States Government, September 2025 and Other Periods." This table of receipts by source is used for usgovernmentspending.com to post details of federal receipt actuals for FY 2025. usdgovernmentspending.com obtains the data for outlays and receipts from apis at fiscaldata.treasury.gov.

This MTS report on FY 2025 actuals is a problem for usgovernmentspending.com because this site uses Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction from the Budget of the United States as its basic source for federal subfunction outlays. But the Monthly Treasury Statement only includes "Table 9. Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government, September 2025 and Other Periods". Subfunction amounts don't get reported until the FY27 budget in February 2026. Until then usgovernmentspending.com estimates actual outlays by "subfunction" for FY 2025 by factoring subfunction budgeted amounts for FY25 by the ratio between relevant actual and budgeted "function" amounts where actual outlays by subfunction cannot be gleaned from the Monthly Treasury Statement.

Final detailed FY 2025 actuals will not appear on usgovernmentspending.com until the FY 2027 federal budget is published in February 2026 with the actual outlays for FY 2025 in Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction.

State and Local Finances for 2023

On September 11, 2025 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2023 using the new Census Bureau State and Local Government Finances summaries for FY 2023 released on July 31, 2025.  (See also Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances). The release includes state and local spending for the United States as a whole and the 50 individual states and the District of Columbia.

State and local spending and revenue for FY2023 are now actual historical spending as reported by the Census Bureau. In addition, the Census Bureau published updated tables for 2021 and 2022.

We have updated the "guesstimated" state and local finances for FY2024-30 as indicated in our "guesstimate" blog entries.

We have also updated data for individual local government units with data for 2023. 

Beginning in 2022 the Census Bureau has changed the value for Line 56 Direct Expenditure and Line 7 General Revenue from own sources, as follows:

We have decided to end our publication of non-insurance trust cash and security holdings.

However, to keep the time series at usgovernmentspending.com consistent, we have decided to add insurance-trust values back into Line 56 and Line 7 values. 

State Spending for 2023

In March 2025 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2023 here and here, including spending and revenue for each individual state and for all states combined.

On June 26, 2025 we updated state and local spending and revenue data for FY2023 through FY2029 as follows:

1. We replaced "guesstimated" state spending and revenue data for FY2023 using the new FY2022 data from the Census Bureau.
2. We replaced "guesstimated" local spending and revenue data for FY 2021 with estimates for each spending and revenue category using the trends in state finances between FY 2021 and FY 2022.
3. We replaced "guesstimated" state revenue data for FY 2023 with data from the Census Bureau's quarterly state tax summary here.
4. We replaced "guesstimated" local revenue data for FY 2023 with estimates for each category using trends for each category of state revenue between FY 2021 and FY 2022.
5. We replaced "guesstimated" state and local spending and revenue for FY 2023 thru FY2029 with new guesstimates based on the latest Census Bureau data for FY 2022 state finances and FY 2023 quarterly tax data.

But there is a problem.

In recent years the Census Bureau has reported Medicaid Vendor Payments to States under item code E74 and other welfare payments under E75 and E79. But now they are all combined under item code E79. This is a problem because usgovernmentspending.com reports Medicaid and the rest of Welfare separately. For now, we are  "guesstimating" E74, E75 and E79 pending release of the combined state and local finances later this year.

We expect the Census Bureau to release local spending and revenue data for FY 2022 not earlier than Summer 2024.

Agency Debt Update for 2024

On June 24, 2025, usgovernmentspending.com updated its data for agency debt from the Federal Reserve Board database. Data is now available for the period 1945-2024. You can see our Agency Debt page here, and a comparison with the official "on-the-books" debt here.

For the period 2024 to 2029 usgovernmentspending.com has "guesstimated" the agency debt, assuming that it increases at the same rate as it did in 2022 to 2023.

See "Federal 'Agency Debt' Added" for explanation of  data derivation.

Data is downloaded from the FRB data download page for "Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1)" as follows.

1. Select a preformatted data package: "L.211 (A) Agency- and GSE-Backed Securities, n.s.a."
2. Click: Format package.
3. Select: Last 100 years.
4. Click: Go to Download.
5. Click: Download File.

Medicare/Social Security 2025 Trustees Reports Released

On June 18, 2025, the Center for Medicare Services released its annual Medicare Trustees Report, which projects Medicare spending out to 2095.  As in the past, the report shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

In this report the Trustees forecast that Medicare will top out at a little above 6 percent of GDP in the 2080s.

On June 20, 2025, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Medicare Outlook here based on data in the 2025

 Medicare Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected Medicare Trustee forecasts going back to 2005.

On June 18, 2025, the Social Security Administration released its annual OASDI Trustees Report, which projects Social Security spending out to 2095.  As in the past, the report shows that Social Security spending will max out at about 6 percent of GDP. UsGovernmentspending.com uses the Supplemental Single Year Tables.

On June 20, 2025, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Social Security Outlook here based on data in the 2025 OASDI Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected OASDI Trustee forecasts going back to 1997.

US Gross Output for 2024 Released

On May 13, 2025, usgovernmentspending.com updated its Gross Output series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, including nominal Gross Output for calendar 2024 of $47.837 trillion. Gross Output for some years previous to 2024 have been revised by BEA.

usgovernmentspending.com reports Gross Output on its Spending Details page and permits charting of spending and revenue as "percent of Gross Output".

The Gross Output series extends back to 1947.

Process:

1. Click on link.
2. Click on "Underlying Detail Tables." 
3. Click on "view detail levels tables... in XLSX format."
4. Click on "Gross Output by Industry" link
5. Save .xlsx file.

US GDP for 2024 Updated

On January 31, 2025 usgovernmentspending.com updated its GDP series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, under "Supplemental Information & Additional Data" including nominal US GDP for third quarter 2024 of $29.375 trillion and real US GDP  for third quarter 2024 of $23.400 trillion in 2017 dollars. Real GDP is now expressed in 2017 dollars.

Up to now, usgovernmentspending.com has shown GDP for calendar years. But the OMB forecast for US GDP in Table 10.1 - Gross Domestic Product and Deflators Used in the Historical Tables uses GDP for the US federal government's fiscal year that ends every year on September 30. So we have changed GDP to the US fiscal year.

Thus GDP, real and nominal, looks like this:

• US GDP source from 1790 to 1928 is calendar GDP from measuringworth.com.
• US GDP source from 1929 to 1946 is calendar GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, under "Supplemental Information and Data"
• US GDP source from 1947 to the present is third quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, under "Supplemental Information and Data."

usgovernmentspending.com computes inflation rate as:

((This Year GDP - Last Year GDP)/Last Year GDP - (This Year Real GDP - Last Year Real GDP)/Last Year Real GDP)*100.