Saturday, October 21, 2023

Federal Deficit, Receipts, Outlays Actuals for FY 2023

On October 20, 2023, the US Treasury reported in its Monthly Treasury Statement (and xlsx) for September that the federal deficit for FY 2023 ending September 30, 2023, was $1,675 billion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the FY 2024 federal budget published in February 2023:

Federal Finances
FY 2023 Outcomes
Budget
billions
Outcome
billions
Receipts $4,802$4,439
Outlays$6,371$6,134
Deficit$1,569$1,675

usgovernmentspending.com now shows the new numbers for total FY 2022 total outlays and receipts on its Estimate vs. Actual page.

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes "Table 4: Receipts of the United States Government, September 2022 and Other Periods." This table of receipts by source is used for usgovernmentspending.com to post details of federal receipt actuals for FY 2022.

This MTS report on FY 2023 actuals is a problem for usgovernmentspending.com because this site uses Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction from the Budget of the United States as its basic source for federal subfunction outlays. But the Monthly Treasury Statement only includes "Table 9. Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government, September 2023 and Other Periods". Subfunction amounts don't get reported until the FY25 budget in February 2024. Until then usgovernmentspending.com estimates actual outlays by "subfunction" for FY 2023 by factoring subfunction budgeted amounts for FY23 by the ratio between relevant actual and budgeted "function" amounts where actual outlays by subfunction cannot be gleaned from the Monthly Treasury Statement.

Final detailed FY 2023 actuals will not appear on usgovernmentspending.com until the FY 2025 federal budget is published in February 2024 with the actual outlays for FY 2023 in Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction.

State FY23 Taxes Update

On October 21, 2023 usgovernmentspending.com updated FY2023 state revenue with quarterly tax data released by the US Census Bureau on September 11, 2023.  Local tax data was updated by assuming that local taxes for 2023 changed by the same percent as state taxes of the same type.


$ billionFY2023
Estimate
FY2023
Actual
State Income Tax Revenue$641$329
Total State Revenue$3,050$2,501


State and local spending projections for FY2024 to FY2028 have been reestimated using the "Guesstimate" method.