State Spending for 2021

 On January 6, 2023 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2021 here and here, including spending and revenue for each individual state and for all states combined.

On January 7, 2023 we updated state and local spending and revenue data for FY2021 through FY2027 as follows:

1. We replaced "guesstimated" state spending and revenue data for FY2021 using the new FY2021 data from the Census Bureau.
2. We replaced "guesstimated" local spending and revenue data for FY 2021 with estimates for each spending and revenue category using the trends in state finances between FY 2020 and FY 2021.
3. We replaced "guesstimated" state revenue data for FY 2022 with data from the Census Bureau's quarterly state tax summary here.
4. We replaced "guesstimated" local revenue data for FY 2022 with estimates for each category using trends for each category of state revenue between FY 2020 and FY 2021.
5. We replaced "guesstimated" state and local spending and revenue for FY 2022 thru FY2027 with new guesstimates based on the latest Census Bureau data for FY 2021 state finances and FY 2022 quarterly tax data.

But there is a problem.

Up through 2018 the Census Bureau reports state government pensions with item codes: X11, X12, X14. And it reported employee retirement income and contributions with item codes: X01, X02, X05, X08. 

No more. 

Instead the Census Bureau reports the following item codes: X01, X30, X40, X52, X70.

But we can't find the current "code lists" that are used in the Census Bureau's State Government Finances report. The Code List page only has the old code list. As of this hour.

But, using advanced juggle-ology, it seems that: 

Code X40 replaces X11, X12, and X14 to yield pension payments. This almost balances with overall Total Spending for the US and sample states.

Codes X01, X30, X52, X70 replace X01, X02, X05, X08 to yield pension contributions and income. This almost balances overall Total Revenue for the US and sample states.

So the state finances data on usgovernmentspending.com published for 2020 contains juggled data. 

Here is the comparison of our "guesstimate" vs. "actual:"

State Finances for FY2021
Estimate vs. Actual

$ billion	Guesstimate	Actual
Spending	$2,228	$2,265
Revenue	$2.060	$2,101

We expect the Census Bureau to release local spending and revenue data for FY 2021 not earlier than Summer 2023.

Medicaid Update for FY 2021

 On January 6, 2023, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) published its annual report on National Health Expenditures and its NHE Tables includes data on Medicaid from 1960 to 2021. On January 7, 2023, usgovernmentspending.com updated its Medicaid data.

Item	2021 Estimate	2021 Actual
Federal Medicaid	$520.6 bn	$520.6 bn
State Medicaid (net)	$241.5 bn	$213.4 bn
Total Medicaid	$762.1 bn	$734.0 bn

The federal Medicaid number comes from the Federal Budget Subfunction 558: Grants to states for Medicaid. The state contribution comes from the NHE Tables.

usgovernmentspending.com publishes "guesstimates" of state and local spending from the latest year published by the Census Bureau (currently FY 2021) to the last year in the Historical Tables of the federal budget (for the FY 2023 budget that is 2027). So we have developed "guesstimates" of Medicaid spending going out to 2027, assuming that the overall Medicaid spending increases at the same rate as the federal "Grants to States for Medicaid" increases.

National Health Expenditure data is updated each year in mid December.