Medicare/Social Security 2021 Trustee Reports Released

On August 31, 2021, the Center for Medicare Services released its annual Medicare Trustees Report, which projects Medicare spending out to 2095.  As in the past, the report shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

In this report the Trustees forecast that Medicare will top out at a little above 6 percent of GDP in the 2080s.

On September 1, 2021, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Medicare Outlook here based on data in the 2021 Medicare Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected Medicare Trustee forecasts going back to 2005.

On August 31, 2021, the Social Security Administration released its annual OASDI Trustees Report, which projects Social Security spending out to 2095.  As in the past, the report shows that Social Security spending will max out at about 6 percent of GDP. UsGovernmentspending.com uses the Supplemental Single Year Tables.

On Septembet 1, 2021, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Social Security Outlook here based on data in the 2021 OASDI Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected OASDI Trustee forecasts going back to 1997.

Medicare Part C Update from 2021 Medicare Trustees Report

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its estimate of Medicare Part C, the Medicare Advantage program using data in the Medicare Trustees Report of 2020 that was released September 1, 2021. You can see the results here.

The Budget of the United States Government reports Medicare outlays as a single line item, subfunction 571 in Historical Table 3.2, but Usgovernmentspending.com shows a breakdown of the Medicare program into its constituent parts, as follows:

1. Part A: Hospital Insurance
2. Part B: Supplementary Medical Insurance
3. Part C: Medicare Advantage
4. Part D: SMI Drug Plan

These data are constructed from data in the Public Budget Database, which provide details on Part A, Part B, and Part D, with Part C embedded in the Part A and Part B outlays. Part C is constructed from data in Table IV.C2 in the Medicare Trustees Report 2021 which reports the payments made to private Medicare health plans and the projected payments in future years.

You can inspect the extracted data from Medicare Trustees Reports Table IV.C2 here. And see the blog entry that introduced the Medicare Part C breakout to usgovernmentspending.com here.

Here is a breakdown of Medicare budgeted outlays on usgovernmentspending.com for FY 2021 before and after today's update.

Budgeted Outlays in percent GDP	Part A	Part B	Part C	Part D	Total Medicare
FY2021 before update	1.24	0.84	1.27	0.34	3.71% GDP
FY2021 after update	1.22	0.83	1.30	0.34	3.71% GDP

The update indicates a  small increase in budgeted Medicare Part C over the previous estimate in the Medicare Trustees Report in 2020.