US, State Population Update for 2021

On December 21, 2021 the US Census Bureau released its US national and state population estimates for July 1, 2021.  On December 24, 2021 usgovernmentspending.com updated its US and state population data as follows:

• We updated 2020 and 2021 population data from US and states using data from US Census National Population Totals and Components of Change 2020-2021 in file NST-EST2021-POP.xlsx.
• We updated 2010-2020 population data for US and states using data from US Census Bureau Population Estimates: Vintage 2020, State Population Totals, in file nst-est2020.xlsx.
• We projected 2021 thru 2027 for the US and states assuming population rate change for 2020-21.

usgovernmentspending.com uses population data in computing per capita spending and revenue data. You can see per capita spending data in a chart here, and in a table of spending here.

You can check the data update schedule here.

Medicaid Update for FY 2020

On December 16, 2021, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) published its annual report on National Health Expenditures and its NHE Tables includes data on Medicaid from 1966 to 2020. On December 17, 2021, usgovernmentspending.com updated its Medicaid data.

Item	2020 Estimate	2020 Actual
Federal Medicaid	$458.5 bn	$458.5 bn
State Medicaid (net)	$228.5 bn	$212.7 bn
Total Medicaid	$687.0 bn	$671.2 bn

The federal Medicaid number comes from the Federal Budget Subfunction 558: Grants to states for Medicaid. The state contribution comes from the NHE Tables.

usgovernmentspending.com publishes "guesstimates" of state and local spending from the latest year published by the Census Bureau (currently FY 2019) to the last year in the Historical Tables of the federal budget (for the FY 2022 budget that is 2026). So we have developed "guesstimates" of Medicaid spending going out to 2026, assuming that the overall Medicaid spending increases at the same rate as the federal "Grants to States for Medicaid" increases.

National Health Expenditure data is updated each year in mid December.

State Spending for 2020

On December 16, 2021 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2020 here and here, including spending and revenue for each individual state and for all states combined.

On December 17, 2021 we updated state and local spending and revenue data for FY2020 through FY2026 as follows:

1. We replaced "guesstimated" state spending and revenue data for FY2020 using the new FY2020 data from the Census Bureau.
2. We replaced "guesstimated" local spending and revenue data for FY 2020 with estimates for each spending and revenue category using the trends in state finances between FY 2019 and FY 2020.
3. We replaced "guesstimated" state revenue data for FY 2021 with data from the Census Bureau's quarterly state tax summary here.
4. We replaced "guesstimated" local revenue data for FY 2021 with estimates for each category using trends for each category of state revenue between FY 2019 and FY 2020.
5. We replaced "guesstimated" state and local spending and revenue for FY 2021 thru FY2026 with new guesstimates based on the latest Census Bureau data for FY 2020 state finances and FY 2021 quarterly tax data.

But there is a problem.

Up through 2018 the Census Bureau reports state government pensions with item codes: X11, X12, X14. And it reported employee retirement income and contributions with item codes: X01, X02, X05, X08. 

No more. 

Instead the Census Bureau reports the following item codes: X01, X30, X40, X52, X70.

But we can't find the current "code lists" that are used in the Census Bureau's State Government Finances report. The Code List page only has the old code list. As of this hour.

But, using advanced juggle-ology, it seems that: 

Code X40 replaces X11, X12, and X14 to yield pension payments. This almost balances with overall Total Spending for the US and sample states.

Codes X01, X30, X52, X70 replace X01, X02, X05, X08 to yield pension contributions and income. This almost balances overall Total Revenue for the US and sample states.

So the state finances data on usgovernmentspending.com published for 2020 contains juggled data. 

Here is the comparison of our "guesstimate" vs. "actual:"

State Finances for FY2020
Estimate vs. Actual

$ billion	Guesstimate	Actual
Spending	$1,987	$2,088
Revenue	$1,858	$1,957

We expect the Census Bureau to release local spending and revenue data for FY 2020 not earlier than Summer 2021.

Federal Deficit, Receipts, Outlays Actuals for FY21

On October 22, 2021, the US Treasury reported in its Monthly Treasury Statement (and xlsx) for September that the federal deficit for FY 2021 ending September 30, 2021, was $2,772 billion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the FY 2022 federal budget published in February 2021:

Federal Finances FY 2021 Outcomes
	Budget billions	Outcome billions
Receipts	$3,580	$4,046
Outlays	$7,250	$6,818
Deficit	$3,669	$2,772

usgovernmentspending.com now shows the new numbers for total FY 2021 total outlays and receipts on its Estimate vs. Actual page.

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes "Table 4: Receipts of the United States Government, September 2020 and Other Periods." This table of receipts by source is used for usgovernmentspending.com to post details of federal receipt actuals for FY 2021.

This MTS report on FY 2021 actuals is a problem for usgovernmentspending.com because this site uses Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction from the Budget of the United States as its basic source for federal subfunction outlays. But the Monthly Treasury Statement only includes "Table 9. Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government, September 2021 and Other Periods". Subfunction amounts don't get reported until the FY23 budget in February 2022. Until then usgovernmentspending.com estimates actual outlays by "subfunction" for FY 2021 by factoring subfunction budgeted amounts for FY21 by the ratio between relevant actual and budgeted "function" amounts where actual outlays by subfunction cannot be gleaned from the Monthly Treasury Statement.

On top of that, the unbudgeted spending to fight the COVID-19 virus is tucked into various places where you'd least expect it. We have tried to unearth these monies in the MTS and translate them into subfunction amounts.

Final detailed FY 2021 actuals will not appear on usgovernmentspending.com until the FY 2023 federal budget is published in February 2022 with the actual outlays for FY 2021 in Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction.

State FY21 Taxes Update

On October 1, 2021 usgovernmentspending.com updated FY2021 state revenue with quarterly tax data released by the US Census Bureau on September 8, 2021.  Local tax data was updated by assuming that local taxes for 2021 changed by the same percent as state taxes of the same type.

$ billion	FY2021 Estimate	FY2021 Actual
State Income Tax Revenue	$509	$608
Total State Revenue	$2,044	$2,120

State and local spending projections for FY2022 to FY2026 have been reestimated using the "Guesstimate" method.

Medicare/Social Security 2021 Trustee Reports Released

On August 31, 2021, the Center for Medicare Services released its annual Medicare Trustees Report, which projects Medicare spending out to 2095.  As in the past, the report shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

In this report the Trustees forecast that Medicare will top out at a little above 6 percent of GDP in the 2080s.

On September 1, 2021, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Medicare Outlook here based on data in the 2021 Medicare Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected Medicare Trustee forecasts going back to 2005.

On August 31, 2021, the Social Security Administration released its annual OASDI Trustees Report, which projects Social Security spending out to 2095.  As in the past, the report shows that Social Security spending will max out at about 6 percent of GDP. UsGovernmentspending.com uses the Supplemental Single Year Tables.

On Septembet 1, 2021, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Social Security Outlook here based on data in the 2021 OASDI Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected OASDI Trustee forecasts going back to 1997.

Medicare Part C Update from 2021 Medicare Trustees Report

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its estimate of Medicare Part C, the Medicare Advantage program using data in the Medicare Trustees Report of 2020 that was released September 1, 2021. You can see the results here.

The Budget of the United States Government reports Medicare outlays as a single line item, subfunction 571 in Historical Table 3.2, but Usgovernmentspending.com shows a breakdown of the Medicare program into its constituent parts, as follows:

1. Part A: Hospital Insurance
2. Part B: Supplementary Medical Insurance
3. Part C: Medicare Advantage
4. Part D: SMI Drug Plan

These data are constructed from data in the Public Budget Database, which provide details on Part A, Part B, and Part D, with Part C embedded in the Part A and Part B outlays. Part C is constructed from data in Table IV.C2 in the Medicare Trustees Report 2021 which reports the payments made to private Medicare health plans and the projected payments in future years.

You can inspect the extracted data from Medicare Trustees Reports Table IV.C2 here. And see the blog entry that introduced the Medicare Part C breakout to usgovernmentspending.com here.

Here is a breakdown of Medicare budgeted outlays on usgovernmentspending.com for FY 2021 before and after today's update.

Budgeted Outlays in percent GDP	Part A	Part B	Part C	Part D	Total Medicare
FY2021 before update	1.24	0.84	1.27	0.34	3.71% GDP
FY2021 after update	1.22	0.83	1.30	0.34	3.71% GDP

The update indicates a  small increase in budgeted Medicare Part C over the previous estimate in the Medicare Trustees Report in 2020.

State and Local Finances for 2019

On August 4, 2021 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2019 using the new Census Bureau State and Local Government Finances summaries for FY 2019 released on July 29, 2021.  This includes state and local spending for the United States as a whole and the 50 individual states and the District of Columbia.

State and local spending and revenue for FY2019 are now actual historical spending as reported by the Census Bureau.  Previously state spending and revenue for FY2019 were actual, and local spending and revenue were estimated.  The following table shows the difference between estimated and actual local spending and revenue for FY2019:

FY 2019	Estimated $ billion	Actual $ billion
Local Spending	$1,995	$2,041
Local Revenue	none	$1,427

We have updated the "guesstimated" state and local finances for FY2020-26 as indicated in our "guesstimate" blog entries.

We have also updated data for individual local government units with data for 2019. But, the Census Bureau has changed the codes for all the local government units, starting in 2018, and it will take a while to provide multi-year charts.

Federal Budget for FY22 Released

On May 27, 2021, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the historical tables in the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2022. Actual revenue for FY 2020 and estimated revenue through FY 2026 come from Historical Tables 2.1, 2.4, and 2.5. Actual spending for FY 2020 and estimated spending at the subfunction level through FY 2026 come from Table 3.2. Budget Authority estimates come from Table 5.1, federal debt estimates come from Table 7.1 and GDP estimates come from Table 10.1. Intergovernmental transfers come from Table 12.3.

Here is how headline budget estimates for the upcoming FY 2022 fiscal year have changed since the release of the FY 2021 budget a year ago in Winter 2020.

FY 2021 Federal Budget Changes Since 2020

$ billion	Estimate for 2021 in FY2021 Budget	Estimate for 2021 in FY2022 Budget	Change
Federal Outlays	$4,829.4	$4,789.8	+$44.2
Federal Receipts	$3,863.3	$3,706.3	+$61.5
Federal Deficit	$966.1	$1,083.4	-$17.4

Of course, the FY2021 Budget came out pre-COVID and the FY2022 is post-COVID.

You can see line item changes from budget to budget here. You can compare budget estimates with actuals here.

Account level spending estimates through FY 2026 come from the Outlays table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on May 27, 2021.

Account level budget authority estimates through FY 2026 come from the Budget Authority table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on May 27, 2021.

CBO Long Term Budget Outlook for 2021

On March 4, 2021 the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook for 2020, which projects federal spending and revenue out to 2051.  As before, the CBO study shows that federal health-care programs and interest costs will eat the budget, with federal spending exceeding 25 percent GDP by the mid 2030s while federal revenue stays below 19 percent GDP.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the CBO Long Term Budget Outlook here.  You can download the data and also view CBO Long Term Budget Outlooks going back to 1999.

Gross State Product for 2020

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2020 on March 25, 2021.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2020 and projected nominal and real GSP through 2025 for each state using the projected national GDP numbers from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2022 Budget and the historical GDP data series from the BEA as a baseline.

As before we have projected individual state GSPs out to 2026. This "guesstimate" normally relies upon the US GDP forecast in the federal budget. But the federal budget for FY 22 is not expected until May. So the state GDP projections are based on last year's GDP projections. Obviously all projections in the immediate aftermath of the COVID-19 epidemic are questionable.

Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2020 GSP growth rates.

Process:

1. Click on link.
2. Click on "Related Materials" tab.
3. Save "Release Tables Only" link.

US Gross Output for 2020 Released

On April 09, 2021, usgovernmentspending.com updated its Gross Output series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, including nominal Gross Output for calendar 2020 of $37.807 trillion. Gross Output for some years previous to 2020 have been revised by BEA.

usgovernmentspending.com reports Gross Output on its Spending Details page and permits charting of spending and revenue as "percent of Gross Output".

The Gross Output series extends back to 1947.

Process:

1. Click on link.
2. Under "Additional Information" click on "Access Underlying Detail Tables." 
3. Click on "view data in XLSX format."
4. Save .xlsx file.

Agency Debt Update for 2020

On March 27, 2021, usgovernmentspending.com updated its data for agency debt from the Federal Reserve Board database. Data is now available for the period 1945-2020. You can see our Agency Debt page here, and a comparison with the official "on-the-books" debt here.

For the period 2020 to 2025 usgovernmentspending.com has "guesstimated" the agency debt, assuming that it increases at the same rate as it did in 2019 to 2020.

See "Federal 'Agency Debt' Added" for explanation of  data derivation.

Data is downloaded from the FRB data download page for "Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1)" as follows.

1. Select a preformatted data package: "L.211 (A) Agency- and GSE-Backed Securities, n.s.a."
2. Click: Format package.
3. Select: 100 years.
4. Click: Go to Download.
5. Click: Download File.

US GDP for 2020 Updated

On March 27, 2021 usgovernmentspending.com updated its GDP series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, under "Supplemental Information and Data" including nominal US GDP for calendar 2020 of $20.937 trillion and real US GDP  for calendar 2020 of $18,426 trillion in 2012 dollars. Real GDP is now expressed in 2012 dollars. GDP for years going back to 2015 have been revised by BEA.

Usgovernmentspending.com uses the BEA US GDP data series from 1929 to the present and measuringworth.com as its US GDP source from 1790 to 1928.

US, State Population Update for 2020

On December 30, 2020 the US Census Bureau released its US national and state population estimates for July 1, 2020.  On December 30, 2020 usgovernmentspending.com updated its US and state population data as follows:

• We updated 2010-2020 population data for US and states using data from US Census Bureau Population Estimates: Vintage 2020, State Population Totals, in file nst-est2020.xlsx.
• We projected 2021 thru 2025 for the states assuming population rate change for 2019-20.
• We updated 2021 thru 2025 for US only using the percentage projections from US Census Bureau National Population Projections in file np2017-t1.xlsx.

usgovernmentspending.com uses population data in computing per capita spending and revenue data. You can see per capita spending data in a chart here, and in a table of spending here.

You can check the data update schedule here.

State Finances for 2019

On December 1, 2020 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2019 here and here, including spending and revenue for each individual state and for all states combined.

On January 8, 2021 we updated state and local spending and revenue data for FY2019 through FY2025 as follows:

1. We replaced "guesstimated" state spending and revenue data for FY2019 using the new FY2019 data from the Census Bureau.
2. We replaced "guesstimated" local spending and revenue data for FY 2019 with estimates for each spending and revenue category using the trends in state finances between FY 2018 and FY 2019.
3. We replaced "guesstimated" state revenue data for FY 2020 with data from the Census Bureau's quarterly state tax summary here.
4. We replaced "guesstimated" local revenue data for FY 2020 with estimates for each category using trends for each category of state revenue between FY 2018 and FY 2019.
5. We replaced "guesstimated" state and local spending and revenue for FY 2020 thru FY2025 with new guesstimates based on the latest Census Bureau data for FY 2019 state finances and FY 2020 quarterly tax data.

But there is a problem.

Up through 2018 the Census Bureau reports state government pensions with item codes: X11, X12, X14. And it reported employee retirement income and contributions with item codes: X01, X02, X05, X08. 

No more. 

Instead the Census Bureau reports the following item codes: X01, X30, X40, X52, X70.

But we can't find the current "code lists" that are used in the Census Bureau's State Government Finances report. The Code List page only has the old code list. As of this hour.

But, using advanced juggle-ology, it seems that: 

Code X40 replaces X11, X12, and X14 to yield pension payments. This almost balances with overall Total Spending for the US and sample states.

Codes X01, X30, X52, X70 replace X01, X02, X05, X08 to yield pension contributions and income. This almost balances overall Total Revenue for the US and sample states.

So the state finances data on usgovernmentspending.com published for 2019 contains juggled data. 

Here is the comparison of our "guesstimate" vs. "actual:"

State Finances for FY2019
Estimate vs. Actual

$ billion	Guesstimate	Actual
Spending	$1,929	$1,917
Revenue	$2,001	$1,955

We expect the Census Bureau to release local spending and revenue data for FY 2019 not earlier than Summer 2021.