Medicare Part C Updated from 2019 Trustees Report

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its estimate of Medicare Part C, the Medicare Advantage program using data in the Medicare Trustees Report of 2018 that was released April 22, 2019. You can see the results here.

The Budget of the United States Government reports Medicare outlays as a single line item, subfunction 571 in Historical Table 3.2, but Usgovernmentspending.com shows a breakdown of the Medicare program into its constituent parts, as follows:

1. Part A: Hospital Insurance
2. Part B: Supplementary Medical Insurance
3. Part C: Medicare Advantage
4. Part D: SMI Drug Plan

These data are constructed from data in the Public Budget Database and Table IV.C2 in the Medicare Trustees Report 2019 which reports the payments made to private Medicare health plans and the projected payments in future years.

You can inspect the extracted data from Medicare Trustees Reports Table IV.C2 here. And see the blog entry that introduced the Medicare Part C breakout to usgovernmentspending.com here.

Here is a breakdown of Medicare budgeted outlays for 2021 before and after today's update.

Outlays in percent GDP	Part A	Part B	Part C	Part D	Total Medicare
FY2021 before update	0.87	0.73	1.08	0.42	3.10% GDP
FY2021 after update	0.84	0.71	1.14	0.42	3.11% GDP

The update indicates a 5.6 percent increase in Medicare Part C over the previous estimate in the Medicare Trustees Report in 2017.

Medicare/Social Security 2019 Trustee Reports Released

On April 22, 2019, the Center for Medicare Services released its annual Medicare Trustees Report, which projects Medicare spending out to 2093.  As in the past, the report shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

In previous reports the Trustees forecast that Medicare would top out at about 6 percent of GDP around 2040. In the 2019 Report the Trustees predict no end in sight, with Medicare blowing through 9 percent of GDP in the 2090s.

On May 31, 2019, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Medicare Outlook here based on data in the 2019 Medicare Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected Medicare Trustee forecasts going back to 2005.

On April 25, 2019, the Social Security Administration released its annual OASDI Trustees Report, which projects Social Security spending out to 2090.  As in the past, the report shows that Social Security spending will max out at about 6 percent of GDP. UsGovernmentspending.com uses the Supplemental Single Year Tables.

On May 31, 2019, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Social Security Outlook here based on data in the 2019 OASDI Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected OASDI Trustee forecasts going back to 1997.

Gross State Product for 2018

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2018 on May 1, 2019.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2018 and projected nominal and real GSP through 2024 for each state using the projected national GDP numbers from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2020 Budget and the historical GDP data series from the BEA as a baseline.

As before we have projected individual state GSPs out to 2024 by applying a factor to reflect each state's deviation from the national growth rate. (E.g. In 2014 the national real GDP expanded by 2.4 percent. But North Dakota grew by 6.3 percent, a deviation of nearly 4 percent. The deviation is reduced by 40 percent for each year after 2014, making the assumption that each state will slowly revert to the national norm.)

Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2018 GSP growth rates.

Federal Revenue by State for 2017 and 2018

On May 20, 2019, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from "SOI Tax Stats - Gross Collections, by Type of Tax and State, Fiscal Year - IRS Data Book Table 5" of the IRS Data Book for 2017 and 2018.  The data can be viewed on the Federal Revenue by State page here.

State Finances for FY2017

On May 3, 2019 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2017 here, including spending and revenue for each individual state and for all states combined.

On May 3, 2019 we updated state and local spending and revenue data for FY2018 through FY2024 as follows:

1. We replaced "guesstimated" state spending and revenue data for FY2017 using the new FY2017 data from the Census Bureau.
2. We replaced "guesstimated" local spending and revenue data for FY 20176 with estimates for each spending and revenue category using the trends in state finances between FY 2016 and FY 2017.
3. We replaced "guesstimated" state revenue data for FY 2018 with data from the Census Bureau's quarterly state tax summary here.
4. We replaced "guesstimated" local revenue data for FY 2018 with estimates for each category using trends for each category of state revenue between FY 2016 and FY 2017.
5. We replaced "guesstimated" state and local spending and revenue for FY 2018 thru FY2024 with new guesstimates based on the latest Census Bureau data for FY 2017 state finances and FY 2018 quarterly tax data.

State Finances for FY2017
Estimate vs. Actual

$ billion	Guesstimate	Actual
Spending	$1,752	$1,769
Revenue	$1,520	$1,894

We expect the Census Bureau to release local spending and revenue data for FY 2017 not earlier than Summer 2019.