US, State Population Update for 2016

On December 19, 2016 the US Census Bureau released its US national and state population estimates for July 1, 2016.  On December 26, 2016 usgovernmentspending.com updated its US and state population data as follows:

• We updated 2010-2016 population data for US and states using data from US Census Bureau Population Estimates: vintage 2016 in file nst-est2016-01.xlsx.
• We projected 2017 thru 2021 for US and the states assuming population rate change for 2015-16.
• We updated 2017 thru 2021 for US only using data from US Census Bureau 2014 National Population Projections in file NP2014-T1.xls.

usgovernmentspending.com uses population data in computing per capita spending and revenue data. You can see per capita spending data in a chart here, and in a table of spending here.

You can check the data update schedule here.

State and Local Finances for FY 2014

On December 10, 2016 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2014 using the newly Census Bureau State and Local Government Finances summaries for FY 2014 released on December 9, 2016.  This includes state and local spending for the United States as a whole and individual states and the District of Columbia.

State and local spending and revenue for FY2014 are now actual historical spending as reported by the Census Bureau.  Previously state spending and revenue for FY2014 was actual, and local spending and revenue was estimated.  The following table shows the difference between estimated and actual local spending and revenue for FY2014:

FY 2014	Estimated $ billion	Actual $ billion
Local Spending	$1,701	$1,707
Local Revenue	$1,252	$1,169

The Census Bureau has also updated state and local finances for 2012 and 2013, as follows:

	FY 2012 Previous $ billion	FY 2012 Latest $ billion	FY 2013 Previous $ billion	FY 2013 Latest $ billion
State Spending	$1,500	$1,497	$1,517	$1,517
Local Spending	$1,647	$1,650	$1,684	$1,658
State Revenue	$1,373	$1,366	$1,666	$1,666
Local Revenue	$1,076	$1,077	$1,169	$1,155

We have updated the "guesstimated" state and local finances for FY2015-21 as indicated in our "guesstimate" blog entries.

Federal Deficit and Outlay Actuals for FY16

On October 14, 2016, the US Treasury reported in its Monthly Treasury Statement (and xls) for September that the federal deficit for FY 2016 ending September 30 was $587 billion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the FY 2017 federal budget published in February 2016:

Federal Finances FY 2016 Outcomes
	Budget billions	Outcome billions
Receipts	$3,336	$3,267
Outlays	$3,951	$3,854
Deficit	$616	$587

usfederalbudget.us now shows the new numbers for total FY 2016 outlays and receipts on its Estimate vs. Actual page.

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes ""Table 4: Receipts of the United States Government, September 2015 and Other Periods." This table of receipts by source is used for usgovernmentspending.com to post federal receipt actuals for FY 2016.

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes "Table 9. Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government, September 2016 and Other Periods".   This table of outlays by function makes it possible for usgovernmentspending.com to estimate actual outlays by "subfunction" for FY 2016 by factoring budgeted amounts by the difference between budgeted and actual "function" amounts where actual outlays by subfunction cannot be gleaned from the Monthly Treasury Statement.

Final detailed FY 2016 numbers will not appear on usgovernmentspending.com until the FY 2018 federal budget is published in February 2017 with the actual outlays for FY 2016 in Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction.

State FY16 Tax Update

On September 25, 2016 usgovernmentspending.com updated FY2016 state revenue with quarterly tax data released by the US Census Bureau on September 20, 2016.  Local tax data was updated by assuming that local taxes for 2016 changed by the same percent as state taxes of the same type.

State and local spending projections for FY2017 to FY2021 have been reestimated using the "Guesstimate" method.

Agency Debt Update for 2015

usgovernmentspending.com has updated its data for agency debt from the Federal Reserve Board database. Data is now available for the period 1945-2015. You can see our Agency Debt page here, and a comparison with the official "on-the-books" debt here.

For the period 2016 to 2021 usgovernmentspending.com has "guesstimated" the agency debt, assuming that it increases at the same rate as it did in 2014 to 2015.

See "Federal 'Agency Debt' Added" for explanation of  data derivation. Data is downloaded from the FRB data download page.

CBO Long Term Budget Outlook 2016

On July 12, 2016, the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook for 2016, which projects federal spending and revenue out into the 2040s.  As before, the CBO study shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget, with federal spending exceeding 28 percent GDP by mid century while federal revenue stays below 20 percent GDP.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the CBO Long Term Budget Outlook here.  You can download the data and also view CBO Long Term Budget Outlooks going back to 1999.

Gross State Product Update for 2015

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2015 on June 14, 2016.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2015 and projected nominal and real GSP through 2020 for each state using the projected national GDP numbers from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2016 Budget and the historical GDP data series from the BEA as a baseline.

As before we have projected individual state GSPs out to 2021 by applying a factor to reflect each state's deviation from the national growth rate. (E.g. In 2014 the national real GDP expanded by 2.4 percent. But North Dakota grew by 6.3 percent, a deviation of nearly 4 percent. The deviation is reduced by 40 percent for each year after 2014, making the assumption that each state will slowly revert to the national norm.)

Usgovernmentspending.com displays individual state data going back to 1957, but BEA has nominal GSP data going back to only 1963, and real GSP data going back to 1987.  Also the 1987-1997 real GSP data is in 1997 dollars, not 2009 dollars like the 1997-present data, and the pre-1997 data is based on a different model than post 1997 data.  For the pre-1997 data we have factored it to remove any "bumps" over the 1997 transition.

Because usgovernmentspending.com needs GSP data to provide e.g., spending as a percent of GDP, we have extended the two BEA GSP data series back to 1957.  We have assumed that the rate of change of GSP prior to 1963 is the same as the national GDP and we have assumed that the rate of change of real GSP prior to 1987 is the same as the nation real GDP growth rate.

Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2015 GSP growth rates.

Medicare Part C Updated from 2016 Trustee Report

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its estimate of Medicare Part C, the Medicare Advantage program using data in the Medicare Trustees Report of 2016 that was released June 22, 2016. You can see the results here.

The Budget of the United States Government reports Medicare outlays as a single line item, subfunction 571 in Historical Table 3.2, but Usgovernmentspending.com shows a breakdown of the Medicare program into its constituent parts, as follows:

1. Part A: Hospital Insurance
2. Part B: Supplementary Medical Insurance
3. Part C: Medicare Advantage
4. Part D: SMI Drug Plan

These data are constructed from data in the Public Budget Database and Table IV.C2 in the Medicare Trustees Report 2016. You can inspect the extracted data from Medicare Trustees Reports Table IV.C2 here.

See the blog entry that introduced Medicare Part C here.

Medicare/Social Security 2016 Trustee Reports Released

On June 22, 2016, the Center for Medicare Services released its annual Medicare Trustees Report, which projects Medicare spending out to 2090.  As in the past, the report shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the Medicare Outlook here based on data in the 2016 Medicare Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected Medicare Trustee forecasts going back to 2005.

On June 22, 2016, the Social Security Administration released its annual OASDI Trustees Report, which projects Social Security spending out to 2090.  As in the past, the report shows that Social Security spending will max out at about 6 percent of GDP.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the Social Security Outlook here based on data in the 2016 OASDI Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected OASDI Trustee forecasts going back to 1997.

State Finances for FY2014

On June 7, 2016 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2014 here, including spending and revenue for each individual state and for all states combined.

On June 9, 2016 we updated state and local spending and revenue data for FY2014 through FY2021 as follows:

1. We replaced "guesstimated" state spending and revenue data for FY2014 using the new FY2014 data from the Census Bureau.
2. We replaced "guesstimated" local spending and revenue data for FY 2014 with estimates for each spending and revenue category using the trends in state finances between FY 2013 and FY 2014.
3. We replaced "guesstimated" state revenue data for FY 2015 with data from the Census Bureau's quarterly state tax summary here.
4. We replaced "guesstimated" local revenue data for FY 2015 with estimates for each category using trends for each category of state revenue between FY 2015 and FY 2015.
5. We replaced "guesstimated" state and local spending and revenue for FY 2015 thru FY2021 with new guesstimates based on the latest Census Bureau data for FY 2014 state finances and FY 2015 quarterly tax data.

State Finances for FY2014
Estimate vs. Actual

$ billion	Guesstimate	Actual
Spending	$1,542	$1,540
Revenue	$1,743	$1,809

We expect the Census Bureau to release local spending and revenue data for FY 2014 not earlier than Summer 2016.

US Gross Output for 2015 Updated

On April 25, 2016, usgovernmentspending.com updated its Gross Output series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, including nominal Gross Output for calendar 2015 of $31.387 trillion. Gross Output for some years previous to 2015 have been revised by BEA.

usgovernmentspending.com now reports Gross Output on its Spending Details page and permits charting of spending and revenue as "percent of Gross Output".

The Bureau of Economic Analysis has extended its Gross Output series back to 1947 this year, and usgovernmentspending.com has done the same.

US GDP for 2015 Updated

On April 17, 2016, usgovernmentspending.com updated its GDP series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, including nominal GDP for calendar 2015 of $17.947 trillion and real GDP  for calendar 2015 of $16.349 trillion in 2009 dollars. GDP for some years previous to 2015 have been revised by BEA.

Usgovernmentspending.com uses the BEA GDP data series from 1929 to the present and measuringworth.com as its GDP source from 1790 to 1928.

State and Local Estimates for 1820-1889

On April 17, 2016 we added estimates of state and local spending for 1820-1889. These data were obtained from Michael Mann, The Sources of Social Power, Volume 2: The Rise of Classes and Nation-States 1760-1914. On Page 363 Mann presents a table of spending for 1820 thru 1890, taken from an estimate of state and local revenue, for each decade year.

Mann's data only includes a number for combined state and local spending (or revenue), but we have estimated the state and local breakdown based on the spending and revenue numbers for 1890 obtained from the Census Bureau. Expenditures and revenues are in millions of nominal dollars. We assume that the ratio of state to local spending, and state to local revenue, remains the same from 1820 to 1890.

	-- From Mann, p363 --
Year	Central Expenditure	Total Expenditure	State and Local Expenditure	State Spend Estimate	Local Spend Estimate	State Rev. Estimate	Local Rev. Estimate
1890	384.3	944.3	560	72	488	106	454
1880	301	621.1	320.1	41.2	278.9	60.6	259.5
1870	328.5	611.7	283.2	36.4	246.8	53.6	229.6
1860	71.7	171.7	100	12.9	87.1	18.9	81.1
1850	44.8	89.2	44.4	5.7	38.7	8.4	36
1840	28.9	67.6	38.7	5	33.7	7.3	31.4
1830	17	33.1	16.1	2.1	14	3	13.1
1820	19.3	27.7	8.4	1.1	7.3	1.6	6.8

These numbers should be regarded as tentative and merely indicative of the size of state and local finances in the mid 19th century. Nobody can imagine the exact spending and revenue, since governments in the mid-19th century acted much more independently than they do today, and made up their rules, about what to count as spending and what to count as revenue, as they went along.

Federal Budget for FY17 Released

On February 9, 2016, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the historical tables in the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2017. Actual revenue for FY 2015 and estimated revenue through FY 2021 come from Historical Tables 2.1, 2.4, and 2.5. Actual spending for FY 2015 and estimated spending at the subfunction level through FY 2021 comes from Table 3.2. Budget Authority estimates come from Table 5.1, federal debt estimates come from Table 7.1 and GDP estimates come from Table 10.1. Intergovernmental transfers come from Table 12.3.

Here is how headline budget estimates for the upcoming FY 2017 fiscal year have changed since the release of the FY 2016 budget a year ago in 2015.

FY 2017 Federal Budget Changes Since 2015

$ billion	Estimate in FY16 Budget	Estimate in FY17 Budget	Change
Federal Outlays	$4,217.8	$4,147.2	-$70.6
Federal Receipts	$3,755.0	$3,643.7	-$111.3
Federal Deficit	$462.8	$503.5	+$40.7

You can see line item changes from budget to budget here. You can compare budget estimates with actuals here.

Account level spending estimates through FY 2021 come from the Outlays table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on February 9, 2016.

Account level budget authority estimates through FY 2021 come from the Budget Authority table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on February 9, 2016.

State and Local Finances Update for FY 2013

On February 1, 2016 usgovernmentspending.com learned that the US Census Bureau may not continue distributing a "flat file" of state and local finances, but only publish a summary of state and local finances.

So we have adapted our state and local finance process to extract the necessary data from the summary files published at the Bureau's State and Local Finance page. Briefly, this means that many detail functions, such as elementary education, are compressed to a single data item instead of two or three.

On February 6, 2016 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2013 using the newly Census Bureau State and Local Government Finances summaries for FY 2013 released in Fall 2015.  This includes state and local spending for the United States as a whole and individual states and the District of Columbia.

State and local spending and revenue for FY2013 are now actual historical spending as reported by the Census Bureau.  Previously state spending and revenue for FY2013 was actual and local spending and revenue was estimated.  The following table shows the difference between estimated and actual local spending and revenue for FY2013:

FY 2013	Estimated $ billion	Actual $ billion
Local Spending	$1,601	$1,684
Local Revenue	$1,094	$1,169

We will update the "guesstimated" state and local finances for FY2014-20 after the FY2017 federal budget update.