US, State Population Update for 2015

On December 22, 2015 the US Census Bureau released its national and state population estimates for July 1, 2015.  On December 22, 2015 usgovernmentspending.com updated its US and state population data as follows:

• We updated 2010-2015 population data for US and states using data from US Census Bureau Population Estimates: vintage 2015 in file NST-EST2015-01.xlsx.
• We projected 2016 thru 2020 for US and states assuming population rate change for 2014-15.
• We updated 2016 thru 2020 for US using data from US Census Bureau 2014 National Population Projections in file NP2014-T1.xls.

usgovernmentspending.com uses population data in computing per capita spending and revenue data. You can see per capita spending data in a chart here, and in a table of spending here.

You can check the data update schedule here.

Federal Deficit and Outlay Actuals for FY15

On October 15, 2015, the US Treasury reported in its Monthly Treasury Statement (and xls) for September that the federal deficit for FY 2015 ending September 30 was $439 billion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the FY 2016 federal budget published in February 2015:

Federal Finances FY 2015 Outcomes
	Budget billions	Outcome billions
Receipts	$3,176	$3,249
Outlays	$3,759	$3,688
Deficit	$583	$439

usfederalbudget.us now shows the new numbers for total FY 2015 outlays and receipts on its Estimate vs. Actual page.

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes ""Table 4: Receipts of the United States Government, September 2015 and Other Periods." This table of receipts by source is used for usgovernmentspending.com to post federal receipt actuals for FY 2015.

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes "Table 9. Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government, September 2015 and Other Periods".   This table of outlays by function makes it possible for usgovernmentspending.com to estimate actual outlays by "subfunction" for FY 2015 by factoring budgeted amounts by the difference between budgeted and actual "function" amounts where actual outlays by subfunction cannot be gleaned from the Monthly Treasury Statement.

Final detailed FY 2015 numbers will not appear until the FY 2017 federal budget is published in February 2016 with the actual outlays for FY 2015 in Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction.

State FY15 Tax Update

On September 27, 2015 usgovernmentspending.com updated FY2015 state revenue with quarterly tax data from the US Census Bureau.  Local tax data was updated by assuming that local taxes for 2015 changed by the same percent as state taxes of the same type.

Federal "Agency Debt" Added

The federal government of the United States does not include all its borrowing in the US Treasury tally of public debt, such as the Debt to the Penny web page. There is also the so-called “agency debt” which is mostly not included in the total of the "national debt." This agency debt is substantial.

The Federal Reserve Board reports a the level of agency debt in its periodical Financial Accounts of the United States. "Table L.211 Agency- and GSE-Backed Securities" includes line items for "Government-sponsored enterprises" and for "Agency- and GSE-backed mortgage pools."

A footnote to Table L.211 states the following:

Agency- and GSE-backed securities include: issues of federal budget agencies (line 2) such as those for the TVA; issues of government sponsored enterprises (line 3) such as Fannie Mae and FHLB; and agency- and GSE-backed mortgage pool securities issued by GNMA, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Farmers Home Administration (line 4). Only the budget agency issues are considered officially to be part of the total debt of the federal government, which is shown in table L.106, line 20.

usgovernmentspending.com has extracted line 3 and line 4 data for agency debt from the FRB database for the period 1945-2014. You can see our Agency Debt page here, and a comparison with the official "on-the-books" debt here.

For the period 2015 to 2020 usgovernmentspending.com has "guesstimated" the agency debt, assuming that it increases at the same rate as it did in 2013 to 2014.

House Budget Plan for FY16

On August 15, 2015, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the draft budget resolution for FY16 prepared by the House Budget Committee.  The site now shows data from the current FY16 Budget Resolution and also Ryan-authored budget resolutions for FY12, FY13, FY14 and FY15.

You can view and download data on the House Budget page here.  You can compare the House Budget with the administration's FY16 budget here.

CBO Long-term Outlook 2015

On June16, 2015, the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook for 2015, which projects federal spending and revenue out into the 2080s.  As before, the CBO study shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget, with federal spending exceeding 35 percent GDP by the end of the century while federal revenue stays below 25 percent GDP.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the CBO Long Term Budget Outlook here.  You can download the data and also view CBO Long Term Budget Outlooks going back to 1999.

Medicare Part C Updated From 2015 Trustee Report

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its estimate of Medicare Part C, the Medicare Advantage program using data in the Medicare Trustees Report of 2015 that was released July 22, 2015. You can see the results here.

The Budget of the United States Government reports Medicare outlays as a single line item, subfunction 571 in Historical Table 3.2, but Usgovernmentspending.com shows a breakdown of the Medicare program into its constituent parts, as follows:

1. Part A: Hospital Insurance
2. Part B: Supplementary Medical Insurance
3. Part C: Medicare Advantage
4. Part D: SMI Drug Plan

These data are constructed from data in the Public Budget Database and Table IV.C2 in the Medicare Trustees Report 2015. You can inspect the extracted data from Medicare Trustees Reports Table IV.C2 here.

See the blog entry that introduced Medicare Part C here.

Medicare/Social Security 2015 Trustee Reports Released

On July 22, 2015, the Center for Medicare Services released its annual Medicare Trustees Report, which projects Medicare spending out into the 2080s.  As in the past, the report shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the Medicare Outlook here based on data in the 2015 Medicare Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected Medicare Trustee forecasts going back to 2005.

On July 22, 2015, the Social Security Administration released its annual OASDI Trustees Report, which projects Social Security spending out to 2090.  As in the past, the report shows that Social Security spending will max out at about 6 percent of GDP.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the Social Security Outlook here based on data in the 2015 OASDI Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected OASDI Trustee forecasts going back to 1997.

Gross State Product Update for 2014

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2014 on June 10, 2015.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2014 and projected nominal and real GSP through 2020 for each state using the projected national GDP numbers from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2016 Budget and the historical GDP data series from the BEA as a baseline.

As before we have projected individual state GSPs out to 2020 by applying a factor to reflect each state's deviation from the national growth rate. (E.g. In 2014 the national real GDP expanded by 2.4 percent. But North Dakota grew by 6.3 percent, a deviation of nearly 4 percent. The deviation is reduced by 40 percent for each year after 2014, making the assumption that each state will slowly revert to the national norm.)

Usgovernmentspending.com displays individual state data going back to 1957, but BEA has nominal GSP data going back to only 1963, and real GSP data going back to 1987.  Also the 1987-1997 real GSP data is in 1997 dollars, not 2009 dollars like the 1997-present data, and the pre-1997 data is based on a different model than post 1997 data.  For the pre-1997 data we have factored it to remove any "bumps" over the 1997 transition.

Because usgovernmentspending.com needs GSP data to provide e.g., spending as a percent of GDP, we have extended the two BEA GSP data series back to 1957.  We have assumed that the rate of change of GSP prior to 1963 is the same as the national GDP and we have assumed that the rate of change of real GSP prior to 1987 is the same as the nation real GDP growth rate.

Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2014 GSP growth rates.

US Gross Output for 2014 Updated

On April 28, 2015, usgovernmentspending.com updated its Gross Output series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, including nominal Gross Output for calendar 2014 of $31.001 trillion. Gross Output for some years previous to 2014 have been revised by BEA.

usgovernmentspending.com now reports Gross Output on its Spending Details page and permits charting of spending and revenue as "percent of Gross Output".

We have extended the Gross Output data series back to 1987.

US GDP for 2014 Updated

On April 8, 2015, usgovernmentspending.com updated its GDP series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, including nominal GDP for calendar 2014 of $17.419 trillion and real GDP  for calendar 2014 of $16.086 trillion in 2009 dollars. GDP for some years previous to 2014 have been revised by BEA.

Usgovernmentspending.com uses the BEA GDP data series from 1929 to the present and measuringworth.com as its GDP source from 1790 to 1928.

Federal Revenue by State for 2014

On April 8, 2015, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from "SOI Tax Stats - Gross Collections, by Type of Tax and State, Fiscal Year - IRS Data Book Table 5" of the IRS Data Book for 2014.  The data can be viewed on the Federal Revenue by State page here.

State Finances for FY 2013

On February 3, 2015 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2013 here, including spending and revenue for each individual state and for all states combined.

On February 3, 2015 we updated state and local spending and revenue data for FY2013 through FY2020 as follows:

1. We replaced "guesstimated" state spending and revenue data for FY2013 using the new FY2013 data from the Census Bureau.
2. We replaced "guesstimated" local spending and revenue data for FY 2013 with estimates for each spending and revenue category using the trends in state finances between FY 2012 and FY 2013.
3. We replaced "guesstimated" state revenue data for FY 2014 with data from the Census Bureau's quarterly state tax summary here.
4. We replaced "guesstimated" local revenue data for FY 2014 with estimates for each category using trends for each category of state revenue between FY 2013 and FY 2014.
5. We replaced "guesstimated" state and local spending and revenue for FY 2014 thru FY2020 with new guesstimates based on the latest Census Bureau data for FY 2013 state finances and FY 2014 quarterly tax data.

We expect the Census Bureau to release local spending and revenue data for FY 2013 not earlier than Summer 2015.

Federal Budget for FY16 Released

On February 2, 2015, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the historical tables in the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2016. Actual revenue for FY 2014 and estimated revenue through FY 2020 come from Historical Tables 2.1, 2.4, and 2.5. Actual spending for FY 2014 and estimated spending at the subfunction level through FY 2020 comes from Table 3.2. Budget Authority estimates come from Table 5.1, federal debt estimates come from Table 7.1 and GDP estimates come from Table 10.1. Intergovernmental transfers come from Table 12.3.

Here is how headline budget estimates for the upcoming FY 2016 fiscal year have changed since the release of the FY 2015 budget a year ago in 2014.

FY 2016 Federal Budget Changes Since 2014

$ billion	FY15 Estimate	FY16 Estimate	Change
Federal Outlays	$4,099.1	$3,999.5	-$99.6
Federal Receipts	$3,568.0	$3,525.2	-$42.8
Federal Deficit	$531.1	$474.3	-$56.8

You can see line item changes from budget to budget here. You can compare budget estimates with actuals here.

Account level spending estimates through FY 2020 come from the Outlays table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on February 2, 2015.

Account level budget authority estimates through FY 2020 come from the Budget Authority table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on February 2, 2015.