US, State Population Update for 2013

On December 30, 2013 the US Census Bureau released its national and state population estimates for 2013.  On December 30, 2013 usgovernmentspending.com updated its US and state population data as follows:

• We updated 2013 population data for US and states using data from US Census Bureau Population Estimates: vintage 2013 in file NST-EST2013-01.xls.
  
• We projected 2014 thru 2019 for US and states assuming population rate change for 2012-13.
• We updated 2015 thru 2019 for US using data from US Census Bureau 2012 National Population Projections.

usgovernmentspending.com uses population data in computing per capita spending and revenue data.  You can see per capita spending data in a chart here, and in a table of spending here.

You can check the data update schedule here.

Federal Deficit Announced for FY 2013

On October 30, 2013, the US Treasury reported in its Monthly Treasury Statement for September that the federal deficit for FY13 ending September 30 was $680 billion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the FY 14 federal budget published in February 2013:

Federal Finances FY13 Outcomes
	Budget billions	CBO   billions	Treasury billions
Receipts	$2,712	$2,774	$2,774
Outlays	$3,685	$3,454	$3,454
Deficit	$973	$680	$680

usfederalbudget.us now shows the new numbers for total FY13 outlays and receipts on its Estimate vs. Actual page, but will not update detailed FY2013 numbers until the FY2015 federal budget is published in February 2014.

UPDATED 11/7/2013:

The Congressional Budget Office announced FY13 outcomes on November 7, 2013.  CBO reported that almost half of the reduction in FY2013 outlays from the budgeted $3,685 billion to $3,454 billion was due to payments from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the US Treasury.

First, Fannie Mae made a onetime payment to the Treasury of around $50 billion resulting from a revaluation of certain tax assets that significantly increased its net worth. Second, because both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were profitable in 2013, the companies were required to make quarterly payments to the Treasury in amounts related to the increase in their net worth.

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes "Table 9. Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government, September 2013 and Other Periods".   This table of outlays by function makes it possible for usgovernmentspending.com to estimate outlays by "subfunction" for FY2013 by factoring budgeted amounts by the difference between budgeted and actual "function" amounts where actual outlays by subfunction cannot be gleaned from the Monthly Treasury Statement.  But this method does not work for Function "370 Commerce and Housing Credit".  Budgeted outlay was $17.7 billion and actual outlay was minus $83.5 billion.  We assume this is due to the special payments from the GSEs, and so we have allocated most of the difference to subfunction "371 Mortgage credit".

Final outlays by subfunction will appear after the federal budget for FY2015 is published in early 2014.

State FY13 Tax Update

On September 24, 2013 usgovernmentspending.com updated FY2013 state revenue with quarterly tax data from the US Census Bureau.  Local tax data was updated by assuming that local taxes for 2013 changed by the same percent as state taxes of the same type.

The following table shows "guesstimated" US state and local total revenue before and after the change.

Revenue $ billion	FY 2012	FY 2013	FY 2014
Before	2,668	2,667	2,737
After	2,668	2,716	2,809

GDP Update Delay

On July 31, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised its GDP methodology.  The published GDP and real GDP for each year going back to 1929 has changed.  For instance, the GDP for 2012 under the new methodology was reported as $16,244.6 billion; under the old methodology the GDP for 2012 was $15,684.8 billion.

Presumably, BEA will update its state GDP methodology when the 2013 numbers come out next June.

Presently, usgsovernmentspending.com uses Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables of the Federal Budget for projected GDP and measuringworth.com for historical GDP. We use measuringworth.com because its data series goes back to the 1790s.

We can't change to the new series yet because Table 10.1 won't get updated until the new FY15 budget comes out early next year.  If we changed right now there'd be a nasty jog in the data between historical and projected GDP.  Not good.  So for the present we are using the old GDP series at measuringworth.com and the current FY14 version of Table 10.1

When we do change, we'll use measuringworth.com for GDP from 1792 to 1928; we'll use the BEA GDP from 1929 to the present.  And we'll use Table 10.1 in the Federal Budget for projected GDP.

CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook 2013

On September 17, 2013, the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook, which projects federal spending and revenue out into the 2080s.  As before, the CBO study shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the CBO Long Term Budget Outlook here.  You can download the data and also view CBO Long Term Budget Outlooks going back to 2000.

State and Local Update for FY 2011

On July 25, 2013 usgovernmentspending.com updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2011 using the newly released Census Bureau State and Local Government Finances for FY 2011.  This includes state and local spending for the United States as a whole and individual states and the District of Columbia.

State and local spending and revenue for FY2011 are now actual historical spending as reported by the Census Bureau.  Previously state spending and revenue for FY2011 was actual and local spending and revenue was estimated.  We have updated the "guesstimated" state and local finances for FY2012-18.

Also updated were state and local finances for 2009 and 2010 using newly released Census Bureau revised data.

Revision to Intergovernmental Transfers

On July 25, 2013, usgovernmentspending.com changed the method of computing "intergovernmental transfers" from 1992 to the present.  These are federal outlays that are transmitted to state and local governments and included as part of direct spending on programs by state and local governments.  They are subtracted from overall spending to avoid "double counting." See here.

Up to now we have used the numbers supplied by the Census Bureau in its annual report on State and Local Finances.  This is inconvenient for usgovernmentspending.com because the Census Bureau reports Welfare intergovernmental transfers in a single code B79 that includes payments to the states for Medicaid.  But usgovernmentspending.com reports Medicaid spending under Health care, separately from Welfare, and needs to report intergovernmental transfers for Medicaid separately from general Welfare.

We now use a table in the Budget of the United States Government, Historical Table 12.3 -- Total Outlays for Grants to States and Local Governments by Function to report intergovernmental transfers to states and local governments.  It provides a separate line item for Medicaid and it provides data up to the current budget year, i.e., FY2014 for the FY 2014 Budget.  The latest Census Bureau data as of May 2013 is FY2010 for local government finances and FY2011 for state government finances.

The main top-line difference between before and after is that intergovernmental transfer for Welfare will now be higher than before and intergovernmental transfer for Health Care will now be lower than before.

We are continuing to use the Census Bureau "B" series function codes for intergovernmental transfers, but have created several new codes to supplement the Census Bureau codes as follows.

New code	Description
B62	Federal Intergovernmental -- Police and Safety
B66	Federal Intergovernmental -- Protective and Inspection
B74	Federal Intergovernmental -- Vendor Payments for Medicaid

Note: The total intergovernmental transfers computed by the federal budget does not agree with the total reported by the Census Bureau.  See below for examples.

Year	Census Bureau  $ billion	Table 12.3  $ billion
1995	$228.77	$224.75
2000	$291.95	$284.46
2005	$438.56	$426.45
2010	$623.73	$606.05

Note: These changes to intergovernmental transfers only apply to the years from 1992 to the present.  Intergovernmental transfers for years prior to 1992 will remain unchanged.

Change to "Business" and "Social Insurance" categories

On July 25, 2013, usgovernmentrevenue.com moved the "X08 - Employee Retirement - Earnings on Investments" revenue code from "Business and Other Revenue" to subcategory "Employee Retirement Insurance" under "Social Insurance Taxes".  This puts X08 in with X01 and X02 employee contribution codes.

This is a big change, because the earnings on investments in a good year are about five times actual contributions.  In a bad year such as 2009 after the financial crash of 2008 X08 can amount to half a trillion dollars in losses.

State and Local Spending for Individual States from 1957 to 1991

On June 15, 2013 usgovernmentspending.com loaded state and local spending and revenue for individual states going back to 1957.

Up to now, we have provided state and local finances from the present back to 1992 using data provided by the Census Bureau here (now here).  But the Census Bureau also has data on individual states going back to 1957 here (now here) in file Govt_Finances.zip.

There is a break in data series at 1991-92.  The Census Bureau prior to 1992 has fewer line items than the post-1992 data.  There is also a break at 1976-77.  The Census Bureau prior to 1977 has fewer line items than the post-1977 data.    Typically, the data in reports for earlier years is reported in an aggregate item that sums up the detailed items in the more recent data reports.

These breaks in data have produced "notches" in some of the data series, and we have done some "juggle-ology" to produce smoother data series, as detailed below.

One problem in the pre-1992 data is that Medicaid is not broken out of welfare.  Up to now, for pre 1992 years we have estimated Medicaid expenses for all states combined based upon the assumption that the intergovernmental transfers to health care all apply to Medicaid and can be subtracted from the gross welfare expenditures to produce welfare net of Medicaid.  For each state, therefore, we have broken down pre-1992 gross welfare expenditures  between net welfare and Medicaid based upon the overall ratio for all states between net welfare (gross welfare less health care intergovernmental transfer) and Medicaid (health care intergovernmental transfer).

Another problem that the pre-1992 data seems to include judicial and legal system expenditures under "General Control" in the "General Government" category.  Data since 1992 has separate data series for judicial and legal system expenditures and we showed it under "Protection" in the default data view.  We have therefore created a new "default" view with judicial and legal system expenditures included under "General Government."  The old default view -- now labeled "old" -- has the judicial and legal system expenditures included under "Protection."  Typically, any links you have saved previous to June 15, 2013 will categorize data under the old default view.  New links will use the new default view, unless you select the old default view.

For 1958-60 combined state-and-local data only is reported in the Census Bureau data. So we have estimated state data and local data by interpolation from 1957 and 1961.

Gross State Product Update for 2012

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2012 on June 6, 2013.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its national GDP for 2012 with data from Measuring Worth.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2012 and projected nominal and real GSP through 2018 for each state using the projected national GDP numbers from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2014 Budget and the historical GDP data series from Measuring Worth as a baseline.

As before we have projected individual state GSPs by applying a factor to reflect each state's deviation from the national growth rate. (E.g. In 2012 the national real GDP expanded by 2.2 percent. But North Dakota grew by 13.4 percent, a deviation of over 11 percent. The deviation is reduced by 40 percent for each year after 2012, assuming that each state will slowly revert to the national norm.)

Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2012 GSP growth rates.

Medicare and Social Security Details

On May 10, 2013, usgovernmentspending.com was updated to provide details of Social Security outlays --  divided between Old Age and Survivor Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI).  It was also updated to provide details of Medicare outlays -- broken down into Part A, Part B, and Part D.

Go here to get details of the Social Security changes on usgovernmentspending.com.

Go here to get details of the Medicare changes on usgovernmentspending.com.

UPDATED: 3/14/2014.

New Social Security Breakdown

On May 12, 2013 we updated usgovernmentspending.com to show details of the federal Social Security program.

Historical Table 3.2, published each year in the Historical Tables section of the Budget of the United States, is the primary source for showing federal outlays down to the "subfunction" level.  Table 3.2 includes about 80 line items.  But Social Security appears as a single line item, subfunction 651.

The details of Social Security can be found in Outlays table of the the Public Budget Database section of the budget and usgovernmentspending.com shows it on its Numbers page.  There you can find outlays for the two major parts of Social Security, the Old Age and Survivors Insurance program and the Disability Insurance program, when you drill down below the subfunction level.

usgovernmentspending.com has now surfaced the OASI and DI outlays up to the subfunction level by creating our own unofficial subfunctions for the Social Security program as follows:

New sub- function	Description
652	OASI Benefits
653	OASI Administration
654	DI Benefits
655	DI Administration
656	Other

You can find the new detailed Social Security numbers on the Social Security Spending Details page here and the Social Security Details by Year page here.  You can also look at the Entitlements History page here.

Reminder: The five "subfunctions" 652 through 656 are not official US government subfunctions.

New Medicare Breakdown

On May 12, 2013 we updated usgovernmentspending.com to show details of the federal Medicare program.

Historical Table 3.2, published each year in the Historical Tables section of the Budget of the United States, is the primary source we use for showing federal outlays down to the "subfunction" level.  Table 3.2 includes about 80 line items.  But Medicare appears as a single line item, subfunction 571.

The details of Medicare can be found in the Outlays table of the the Public Budget Database section of the budget and usgovernmentspending.com shows Medicare details on its Numbers page.  There you can find outlays for the three major parts of Medicare, the Part A Hospital Insurance (HI) program, the Part B Supplemental Medical Insurance (SMI) program, and the Part D Drug benefit when you drill down below the subfunction level.

usgovernmentspending.com has now surfaced the Part A, Part B and Part D outlays up to the subfunction level by creating our own unofficial subfunctions for the Medicare program as follows:

New sub- function	Description
572	HI (Part A) Benefits
573	HI (Part A) Administration
574	HI (Part A) Premiums and Collections
575	SMI (Part B) Benefits
576	SMI (Part B) Administration
577	SMI (Part B) Premiums and Collections
581	SMI Drug (Part D) Benefits
582	SMI Drug (Part D) Administration
583	SMI Drug(Part D) Premiums and Collections
584	Other

You can find the new detailed Medicare numbers on the Medicare Spending Details page here and the Medicare Spending by Year page here.  You can also look at the Entitlements History page here.

Reminder: The ten "subfunctions" 572 through 784 are not official US government subfunctions.

Federal Budget FY 14 Released

On April 10, 2013, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the historical tables in the FY14 federal budget. Actual revenue for FY 2012 and estimated revenue through FY 2018 come from Tables 2.1, 2.4, and 2.5. Actual spending for FY 2012 and estimated spending at the subfunction level through FY 2018 comes from Table 3.2. Budget Authority estimates come from Table 5.1, federal debt estimates come from Table 7.1 and GDP estimates come from Table 10.1.

You can see you each line item changes from budget to budget here. You can compare budget estimates with actuals here.

Account level spending estimates through FY 2018 come from the Outlays table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on March 10, 2013.

Account level budget authority estimates through FY 2018 come from the Budget Authority table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on March 10, 2013.

Federal Revenue by State for 2012

On March 26, 2013, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from "SOI Tax Stats - Gross Collections, by Type of Tax and State, Fiscal Year - IRS Data Book Table 5" of the IRS Data Book for 2012.  The data can be viewed on the Federal Revenue by State page here.

Federal Budget Authority Starting 1976

On March 24, 2013, in a joint project between usgovernmentspending.com and usfederalbudget.us, we finished loading federal Budget Authority data.

You can now view Budget Authority data for each federal budget starting with the FY 1986 budget and up to the latest published federal budget.

In the Estimated Budget Authority view you can look at the six years of budget authority projections down to the subfunction level in each federal budget.  You can also drill down to "account-level" budget authority data.

In the Budget Authority vs. Actual view you can look at the budget authority down to the subfunction level for a particular fiscal year as shown in different budgets and compared to the final budget authority data published after the completion of the fiscal year.  You can also drill down to "account-level" budget authority data.

Data Sources
Budget Authority data down to the subfunction level was obtained from Table 5.1 -- Budget Authority by Function and Subfunction, which is published in every federal budget in the Historical Tables starting with the FY 1986 federal budget.

Budget Authority data at the account level was obtained from the Budget Authority file which is published in every federal budget in the Public Budget Database starting with the FY 1999 federal budget.

Murray Budget Plan for FY14

On March 13, 2013, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the draft budget resolution for FY14 prepared by the Senate Budget Committee, Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), chairman.  The site now shows data from the current Murray FY14 Budget Resolution.

You can view and download data on the Murray Budget page here.  Because the president has not yet published the federal budget for FY14 we compare the Murray plan with the Ryan plan here.

Ryan Budget Plan for FY14

On March 13, 2013, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the draft budget resolution for FY14 prepared by the House Budget Committee, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), chairman.  The site now shows data from the current Ryan RY14 Budget Resolution and also Ryan-authored budget resolutions for FY12 and FY13.

You can view and download data on the Ryan Budget page here.  Because the president has not yet published the federal budget for FY14 the Ryan Budget compares itself with "Current Policy."  You can compare the Ryan Budget with the administration's current policy here.

State and Local Data Extended Back to 1890

Up to now usgovernmentspending.com has delivered federal spending and revenue data from 1792 to the present.  It has delivered state and local spending and revenue data from 1902 to the present.

On January 20, 2013 usgovernmentspending.com was updated with state and local data for 1890 thru 1901.  For 1890 the data is obtained from “Historical Statistics of the United States: 1789 - 1945.”  For 1891 thru 1901 the data is interpolated between the 1890 data and the 1902 data obtained from “Bicentennial Edition: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970.”

You can access extracts of the 1902 data in pdf format here and the 1890 data in pdf format here.