US, State Population Update for 2022

On December 29, 2022 the US Census Bureau released its US national and state population estimates for July 1, 2022.  On December 30, 2022 usgovernmentspending.com updated its US and state population data as follows:

• We updated 2021 and 2022 population data from US and states using data from US Census National Population Totals and Components of Change 2021-2022 in file NST-EST2022-POP.xlsx.
• We updated 2010-2020 population data for US and states using data from US Census Bureau Population Estimates: Vintage 2020, State Population Totals, in file nst-est2020.xlsx.
• We projected 2022 thru 2028 for the US and states assuming population rate change for 2021-22.

usgovernmentspending.com uses population data in computing per capita spending and revenue data. You can see per capita spending data in a chart here, and in a table of spending here.

You can check the data update schedule here.

State FY22 Taxes Update

On December 9, 2022 usgovernmentspending.com updated FY2022 state revenue with quarterly tax data released by the US Census Bureau on September 8, 2022.  Local tax data was updated by assuming that local taxes for 2021 changed by the same percent as state taxes of the same type.

$ billion	FY2022 Estimate	FY2022 Actual
State Income Tax Revenue	$652	$608
Total State Revenue	$2,180	$2,101

State and local spending projections for FY2023 to FY2027 have been reestimated using the "Guesstimate" method.

Federal Deficit, Receipts, Outlays Actuals for FY 2022

On October 21, 2022, the US Treasury reported in its Monthly Treasury Statement (and xlsx) for September that the federal deficit for FY 2022 ending September 30, 2022, was $x,xxx billion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the FY 2023 federal budget published in February 2022:

Federal Finances FY 2022 Outcomes
	Budget billions	Outcome billions
Receipts	$4,437	$4,896
Outlays	$5,852	$6,271
Deficit	$1,415	$1,375

usgovernmentspending.com now shows the new numbers for total FY 2022 total outlays and receipts on its Estimate vs. Actual page.

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes "Table 4: Receipts of the United States Government, September 2022 and Other Periods." This table of receipts by source is used for usgovernmentspending.com to post details of federal receipt actuals for FY 2022.

This MTS report on FY 2022 actuals is a problem for usgovernmentspending.com because this site uses Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction from the Budget of the United States as its basic source for federal subfunction outlays. But the Monthly Treasury Statement only includes "Table 9. Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government, September 2022 and Other Periods". Subfunction amounts don't get reported until the FY24 budget in February 2023. Until then usgovernmentspending.com estimates actual outlays by "subfunction" for FY 2022 by factoring subfunction budgeted amounts for FY22 by the ratio between relevant actual and budgeted "function" amounts where actual outlays by subfunction cannot be gleaned from the Monthly Treasury Statement.

Final detailed FY 2022 actuals will not appear on usgovernmentspending.com until the FY 2024 federal budget is published in February 2023 with the actual outlays for FY 2022 in Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction.

Medicare Part C Update from 2022 Medicare Trustees Report

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its estimate of Medicare Part C, the Medicare Advantage program using data in the Medicare Trustees Report of 2022 that was released June 4, 2022. You can see the results here.

The Budget of the United States Government reports Medicare outlays as a single line item, subfunction 571 in Historical Table 3.2, but Usgovernmentspending.com shows a breakdown of the Medicare program into its constituent parts, as follows:

1. Part A: Hospital Insurance
2. Part B: Supplementary Medical Insurance
3. Part C: Medicare Advantage
4. Part D: SMI Drug Plan

These data are constructed from data in the Public Budget Database, which provide details on Part A, Part B, and Part D, with Part C embedded in the Part A and Part B outlays. Part C is constructed from data in Table IV.C2 in the Medicare Trustees Report 2022 which reports the payments made to private Medicare health plans and the projected payments in future years.

You can inspect the extracted data from Medicare Trustees Reports Table IV.C2 here. And see the blog entry that introduced the Medicare Part C breakout to usgovernmentspending.com here.

Here is a breakdown of Medicare budgeted outlays on usgovernmentspending.com for FY 2022 before and after today's update.

Budgeted Outlays in percent GDP	Part A	Part B	Part C	Part D	Total Medicare
FY2022 before update	0.69	0.68	1.39	0.37	3.14% GDP
FY2022 after update	0.69	0.66	1.42	0.37	3.14% GDP

The update indicates a  small increase in budgeted Medicare Part C over the previous estimate in the Medicare Trustees Report in 2021.

State and Local Finances for 2020

On July 6, 2022 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2020 using the new Census Bureau State and Local Government Finances summaries for FY 2020 released on July 5, 2022.  This includes state and local spending for the United States as a whole and the 50 individual states and the District of Columbia.

State and local spending and revenue for FY2020 are now actual historical spending as reported by the Census Bureau.  Previously state spending and revenue for FY2020 were actual, and local spending and revenue were estimated.  The following table shows the difference between estimated and actual local spending and revenue for FY2020:

FY 2020	Estimated $ billion	Actual $ billion
Local Spending	$2,069	$2,129
Local Revenue	$1,443	$1,488

We have updated the "guesstimated" state and local finances for FY2021-27 as indicated in our "guesstimate" blog entries.

We have also updated data for individual local government units with data for 2020. But, the Census Bureau has changed the codes for all the local government units, starting in 2018, and it will take a while to provide multi-year charts.

Medicare/Social Security 2022 Trustee Reports Released

On June 2, 2022, the Center for Medicare Services released its annual Medicare Trustees Report, which projects Medicare spending out to 2095.  As in the past, the report shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

In this report the Trustees forecast that Medicare will top out at a little above 6 percent of GDP in the 2080s.

On June 4, 2022, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Medicare Outlook here based on data in the 2022 Medicare Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected Medicare Trustee forecasts going back to 2005.

On June 2, 2022, the Social Security Administration released its annual OASDI Trustees Report, which projects Social Security spending out to 2095.  As in the past, the report shows that Social Security spending will max out at about 6 percent of GDP. UsGovernmentspending.com uses the Supplemental Single Year Tables.

On June 4, 2022, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Social Security Outlook here based on data in the 2022 OASDI Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected OASDI Trustee forecasts going back to 1997.

CBO Long Term Budget Outlook for 2022

In May 2022 the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook for 2022, which projects federal spending and revenue out to 2052.  As before, the CBO study shows that federal health-care programs and interest costs will eat the budget, with federal spending exceeding 25 percent GDP by the mid 2030s while federal revenue stays below 19 percent GDP.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the CBO Long Term Budget Outlook here.  You can download the data and also view CBO Long Term Budget Outlooks going back to 1999.

US Gross Output for 2021 Released

On April 01, 2022, usgovernmentspending.com updated its Gross Output series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, including nominal Gross Output for calendar 2021 of $41.171 trillion. Gross Output for some years previous to 2021 have been revised by BEA.

usgovernmentspending.com reports Gross Output on its Spending Details page and permits charting of spending and revenue as "percent of Gross Output".

The Gross Output series extends back to 1947.

Process:

1. Click on link.
2. Under "Additional Information" click on "Access Underlying Detail Tables." 
3. Click on "view detail levels tables... in XLSX format."
4. Click on "Gross Output by Industry" link
5. Save .xlsx file.

Federal Budget for FY23 Released

On March 31, 2022, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the historical tables in the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2023. Actual revenue for FY 2021 and estimated revenue through FY 2027 come from Historical Tables 2.1, 2.4, and 2.5. Actual spending for FY 2021 and estimated spending at the subfunction level through FY 2027 come from Table 3.2. Budget Authority estimates come from Table 5.1, federal debt estimates come from Table 7.1 and GDP estimates come from Table 10.1. Intergovernmental transfers come from Table 12.3.

Here is how headline budget estimates for the upcoming FY 2022 fiscal year have changed since the release of the FY 2022 budget a year ago in Winter 2021.

Federal Budget Changes for 2022

$ billion	Estimate for 2022 in FY2022 Budget	Estimate for 2022 in FY2023 Budget	Change
Federal Outlays	$6,011.2	$5,851.6	-$159.6
Federal Receipts	$4,174.2	$4,436.6	+$262.4
Federal Deficit	$1,837.0	$1,415.0	-$422.0

You can see line item changes from budget to budget here. You can compare budget estimates with actuals here.

Account level spending estimates through FY 2027 come from the Outlays table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on March 31, 2022.

Account level budget authority estimates through FY 2027 come from the Budget Authority table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on March 31, 2022.

Gross State Product for 2021

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2020 on March 31, 2021.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2021 and projected nominal and real GSP through 2027 for each state using the projected national GDP numbers from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2023 Budget and the historical GDP data series from the BEA as a baseline.

As before we have projected individual state GSPs out to 2027. 

Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2021 GSP growth rates.

Process:

1. Click on link.
2. Click on "Interactive Data" link
3. Click on "Interactive Tables: GDP by State" link
4. Click on "Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by State"
5. Click on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) summary (SAGDP1)
6. Areas: Select "All Areas"
7. Statistic: Select "Real GDP..." and "Current-dollar GDP..."
8. Click on Next Step button
9. Time Period: Select "All Years"
10. Click on Next Step button
11. Click on Download Data button
12. Select CSV 

Agency Debt Update for 2021

On March 27, 2022, usgovernmentspending.com updated its data for agency debt from the Federal Reserve Board database. Data is now available for the period 1945-2021. You can see our Agency Debt page here, and a comparison with the official "on-the-books" debt here.

For the period 2022 to 2027 usgovernmentspending.com has "guesstimated" the agency debt, assuming that it increases at the same rate as it did in 2020 to 2021.

See "Federal 'Agency Debt' Added" for explanation of  data derivation.

Data is downloaded from the FRB data download page for "Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1)" as follows.

1. Select a preformatted data package: "L.211 (A) Agency- and GSE-Backed Securities, n.s.a."
2. Click: Format package.
3. Select: 100 years.
4. Click: Go to Download.
5. Click: Download File.

US GDP For 2021 Updated

On February 12, 2022 usgovernmentspending.com updated its GDP series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, under "Supplemental Information and Data" including nominal US GDP for calendar 2021 of $22.994 trillion and real US GDP  for calendar 2021 of $19.427 trillion in 2012 dollars. Real GDP is now expressed in 2012 dollars. GDP for years going back to 2015 have been revised by BEA.

Usgovernmentspending.com uses the BEA US GDP data series from 1929 to the present and measuringworth.com as its US GDP source from 1790 to 1928.

BEA will update the 2021 GDP data on February 24, 2022.