US, State Population Update for 2021

On December 21, 2021 the US Census Bureau released its US national and state population estimates for July 1, 2021.  On December 24, 2021 usgovernmentspending.com updated its US and state population data as follows:

• We updated 2020 and 2021 population data from US and states using data from US Census National Population Totals and Components of Change 2020-2021 in file NST-EST2021-POP.xlsx.
• We updated 2010-2020 population data for US and states using data from US Census Bureau Population Estimates: Vintage 2020, State Population Totals, in file nst-est2020.xlsx.
• We projected 2021 thru 2027 for the US and states assuming population rate change for 2020-21.

usgovernmentspending.com uses population data in computing per capita spending and revenue data. You can see per capita spending data in a chart here, and in a table of spending here.

You can check the data update schedule here.

Medicaid Update for FY 2020

On December 16, 2021, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) published its annual report on National Health Expenditures and its NHE Tables includes data on Medicaid from 1966 to 2020. On December 17, 2021, usgovernmentspending.com updated its Medicaid data.

Item	2020 Estimate	2020 Actual
Federal Medicaid	$458.5 bn	$458.5 bn
State Medicaid (net)	$228.5 bn	$212.7 bn
Total Medicaid	$687.0 bn	$671.2 bn

The federal Medicaid number comes from the Federal Budget Subfunction 558: Grants to states for Medicaid. The state contribution comes from the NHE Tables.

usgovernmentspending.com publishes "guesstimates" of state and local spending from the latest year published by the Census Bureau (currently FY 2019) to the last year in the Historical Tables of the federal budget (for the FY 2022 budget that is 2026). So we have developed "guesstimates" of Medicaid spending going out to 2026, assuming that the overall Medicaid spending increases at the same rate as the federal "Grants to States for Medicaid" increases.

National Health Expenditure data is updated each year in mid December.

State Spending for 2020

On December 16, 2021 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2020 here and here, including spending and revenue for each individual state and for all states combined.

On December 17, 2021 we updated state and local spending and revenue data for FY2020 through FY2026 as follows:

1. We replaced "guesstimated" state spending and revenue data for FY2020 using the new FY2020 data from the Census Bureau.
2. We replaced "guesstimated" local spending and revenue data for FY 2020 with estimates for each spending and revenue category using the trends in state finances between FY 2019 and FY 2020.
3. We replaced "guesstimated" state revenue data for FY 2021 with data from the Census Bureau's quarterly state tax summary here.
4. We replaced "guesstimated" local revenue data for FY 2021 with estimates for each category using trends for each category of state revenue between FY 2019 and FY 2020.
5. We replaced "guesstimated" state and local spending and revenue for FY 2021 thru FY2026 with new guesstimates based on the latest Census Bureau data for FY 2020 state finances and FY 2021 quarterly tax data.

But there is a problem.

Up through 2018 the Census Bureau reports state government pensions with item codes: X11, X12, X14. And it reported employee retirement income and contributions with item codes: X01, X02, X05, X08. 

No more. 

Instead the Census Bureau reports the following item codes: X01, X30, X40, X52, X70.

But we can't find the current "code lists" that are used in the Census Bureau's State Government Finances report. The Code List page only has the old code list. As of this hour.

But, using advanced juggle-ology, it seems that: 

Code X40 replaces X11, X12, and X14 to yield pension payments. This almost balances with overall Total Spending for the US and sample states.

Codes X01, X30, X52, X70 replace X01, X02, X05, X08 to yield pension contributions and income. This almost balances overall Total Revenue for the US and sample states.

So the state finances data on usgovernmentspending.com published for 2020 contains juggled data. 

Here is the comparison of our "guesstimate" vs. "actual:"

State Finances for FY2020
Estimate vs. Actual

$ billion	Guesstimate	Actual
Spending	$1,987	$2,088
Revenue	$1,858	$1,957

We expect the Census Bureau to release local spending and revenue data for FY 2020 not earlier than Summer 2021.