Federal Deficit, Receipts, Outlays Actuals for FY18

On October 15, 2018, the US Treasury reported in its Monthly Treasury Statement (and xls) for September that the federal deficit for FY 2018 ending September 30, 2018, was $779 billion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the FY 2019 federal budget published in February 2018:

Federal Finances FY 2018 Outcomes
	Budget billions	Outcome billions
Receipts	$3,340	$3,329
Outlays	$4,130	$4,108
Deficit	$833	$779

usgovernmentspending.com now shows the new numbers for total FY 2018 total outlays and receipts on its Estimate vs. Actual page.

The Monthly Treasury Statement includes "Table 4: Receipts of the United States Government, September 2018 and Other Periods." This table of receipts by source is used for usgovernmentspending.com to post details of federal receipt actuals for FY 2018.

This FTS report on FY 18 actuals is a problem for usgovernmentspending.com because this site uses Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction from the Budget of the United States as its basic source for federal subfunction outlays. But the Monthly Treasury Statement only includes "Table 9. Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government, September 2018 and Other Periods". Subfunction amounts don't get reported until the FY20 budget in February 2019. Until then usgovernmentspending.com estimates actual outlays by "subfunction" for FY 2018 by factoring subfunction budgeted amounts for FY18 by the ratio between relevant actual and budgeted "function" amounts where actual outlays by subfunction cannot be gleaned from the Monthly Treasury Statement.

Final detailed FY 2018 actuals will not appear on usgovernmentspending.com until the FY 2020 federal budget is published in February 2019 with the actual outlays for FY 2018 in Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction.

State FY18 Taxes Update

On September 20, 2018 usgovernmentspending.com updated FY2018 state revenue with quarterly tax data released by the US Census Bureau on September 13, 2018.  Local tax data was updated by assuming that local taxes for 2018 changed by the same percent as state taxes of the same type.

$ billion	FY2018 Estimate	FY2018 Actual
State Income Tax Revenue	$406	$441
Total State Revenue	$1,545	$1,601

State and local spending projections for FY2019 to FY2023 have been reestimated using the "Guesstimate" method.

State and Local Finances for FY 2016

On September 16, 2018 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2016 using the new Census Bureau State and Local Government Finances summaries for FY 2016 released on September 12, 2018.  This includes state and local spending for the United States as a whole and the 50 individual states and the District of Columbia.

State and local spending and revenue for FY2016 are now actual historical spending as reported by the Census Bureau.  Previously state spending and revenue for FY2016 were actual, and local spending and revenue were estimated.  The following table shows the difference between estimated and actual local spending and revenue for FY2016:

FY 2016	Estimated $ billion	Actual $ billion
Local Spending	$1,784	$1,814
Local Revenue	$1,229	$1,212

The Census Bureau has also updated state and local finances for 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015, as follows:

	FY 2012 Previous $ billion	FY 2012 Latest $ billion	FY 2013 Previous $ billion	FY 2013 Latest $ billion	FY 2014 Previous $ billion	FY 2014 Latest $ billion	FY 2015 Previous $ billion	FY 2015 Latest $ billion
State Spending	$1,497	$1,501	$1,517	$1,517	$1,550	$1,550	$1,634	$1,636
Local Spending	$1,651	$1,649	$1,662	$1,661	$1,712	$1,710	$1,763	$1,762
State Revenue	$1,368	$1,360	$1,668	$1,659	$1,814	$1,828	$1,554	$1,499
Local Revenue	$1,077	$1,076	$1,155	$1,155	$1,229	$1,221	$1,206	$1,212

We have updated the "guesstimated" state and local finances for FY2017-23 as indicated in our "guesstimate" blog entries.

CBO Long Term Budget Outlook for 2018

On June 26, 2018 the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook for 2018, which projects federal spending and revenue out into the 2040s.  As before, the CBO study shows that federal health-care programs and interest costs will eat the budget, with federal spending exceeding 28 percent GDP by mid century while federal revenue stays below 20 percent GDP.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the CBO Long Term Budget Outlook here.  You can download the data and also view CBO Long Term Budget Outlooks going back to 1999.

Gross State Product for 2017

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2017 on May 11, 2017.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2016 and projected nominal and real GSP through 2023 for each state using the projected national GDP numbers from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2019 Budget and the historical GDP data series from the BEA as a baseline.

As before we have projected individual state GSPs out to 2023 by applying a factor to reflect each state's deviation from the national growth rate. (E.g. In 2014 the national real GDP expanded by 2.4 percent. But North Dakota grew by 6.3 percent, a deviation of nearly 4 percent. The deviation is reduced by 40 percent for each year after 2014, making the assumption that each state will slowly revert to the national norm.)

Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2017 GSP growth rates.

Medicare Part C Updated from 2018 Trustees Report

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its estimate of Medicare Part C, the Medicare Advantage program using data in the Medicare Trustees Report of 2017 that was released June 5, 2018. You can see the results here.

The Budget of the United States Government reports Medicare outlays as a single line item, subfunction 571 in Historical Table 3.2, but Usgovernmentspending.com shows a breakdown of the Medicare program into its constituent parts, as follows:

1. Part A: Hospital Insurance
2. Part B: Supplementary Medical Insurance
3. Part C: Medicare Advantage
4. Part D: SMI Drug Plan

These data are constructed from data in the Public Budget Database and Table IV.C2 in the Medicare Trustees Report 2018 which reports the payments made to private Medicare health plans and the projected payments in future years.

You can inspect the extracted data from Medicare Trustees Reports Table IV.C2 here. And see the blog entry that introduced the Medicare Part C breakout to usgovernmentspending.com here.

Here is a breakdown of Medicare budgeted outlays for 2020 before and after today's update.

Outlays in percent GDP	Part A	Part B	Part C	Part D	Total Medicare
FY2020 before update	0.91	0.78	1.00	0.37	3.00% GDP
FY2020 after update	0.88	0.75	1.05	0.37	3.00% GDP

The update indicates a 5 percent increase in Medicare Part C over the previous estimate in the Medicare Trustees Report in 2017.

Medicare/Social Security 2018 Trustee Reports Released

On June 5, 2018, the Center for Medicare Services released its annual Medicare Trustees Report, which projects Medicare spending out to 2092.  As in the past, the report shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the Medicare Outlook here based on data in the 2018 Medicare Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected Medicare Trustee forecasts going back to 2005.

On June 5, 2018, the Social Security Administration released its annual OASDI Trustees Report, which projects Social Security spending out to 2090.  As in the past, the report shows that Social Security spending will max out at about 6 percent of GDP.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the Social Security Outlook here based on data in the 2018 OASDI Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected OASDI Trustee forecasts going back to 1997.

Local Government Finances from 1992 to Present

On May 16, 2018 usgovernmentspending.com added access to the spending and revenues of the tens of thousands of local governments -- counties, cities, special districts and school districts -- in the United States.

Local government finance data for individual local government units is published by the US Census Bureau in so-called "Individual Unit Files" and is available from 1992 to the present, with gaps from 1993-94 and 2007-11. Data for the missing years has been estimated by usgovernmentspending.com.

Users can access this local government finance data in three ways.

1. Local Rank page, that lists the top local governments by spending or by revenue.
2. Local Detail page, that lists spending or revenue details for each local government.
3. Local Chart page, that provides a multi-year chart of spending or revenue for each local government.

Given that there are tens of thousands of local governments in the US, the question is how to access a particular city, or county, or special district. There are two ways:

1. Go to the Local Rank page. Then switch to the rank you want: city, county, district or school. If the government is on the list then click on the "chart" or "detail" link. If the government is not on the list then go to the bottom of the list and select the state the government is in. Then select the government using the drop downs.
2. Go to the Local Detail or Local Chart page. Then select the state and the city/county/district/school.

US Gross Output for 2017 Released

On April 30, 2018, usgovernmentspending.com updated its Gross Output series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, including nominal Gross Output for calendar 2017 of $33.708 trillion. Gross Output for some years previous to 2017 have been revised by BEA.

usgovernmentspending.com reports Gross Output on its Spending Details page and permits charting of spending and revenue as "percent of Gross Output".

The Gross Output series extends back to 1947.

State Finances for FY2016

On May 11, 2017 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2015 here, including spending and revenue for each individual state and for all states combined.

On April 10, 2018 we updated state and local spending and revenue data for FY2016 through FY2023 as follows:

1. We replaced "guesstimated" state spending and revenue data for FY2016 using the new FY2016 data from the Census Bureau.
2. We replaced "guesstimated" local spending and revenue data for FY 2016 with estimates for each spending and revenue category using the trends in state finances between FY 2015 and FY 2016.
3. We replaced "guesstimated" state revenue data for FY 2017 with data from the Census Bureau's quarterly state tax summary here.
4. We replaced "guesstimated" local revenue data for FY 2016 with estimates for each category using trends for each category of state revenue between FY 2015 and FY 2016.
5. We replaced "guesstimated" state and local spending and revenue for FY 2017 thru FY2023 with new guesstimates based on the latest Census Bureau data for FY 2016 state finances and FY 2017 quarterly tax data.

State Finances for FY2016
Estimate vs. Actual

$ billion	Guesstimate	Actual
Spending	$1,708	$1,707
Revenue	$1,604	$1,499

We expect the Census Bureau to release local spending and revenue data for FY 2016 not earlier than Summer 2018.

Federal Revenue by State for 2016

On March 25, 2018, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from "SOI Tax Stats - Gross Collections, by Type of Tax and State, Fiscal Year - IRS Data Book Table 5" of the IRS Data Book for 2016.  The data can be viewed on the Federal Revenue by State page here.

US GDP for 2017 Updated

On March 25, 2018, usgovernmentspending.com updated its GDP series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, including nominal GDP for calendar 2017 of $19.386  trillion and real GDP  for calendar 2016 of $17.093 trillion in 2009 dollars. GDP for some years previous to 2017 have been revised by BEA.

Usgovernmentspending.com uses the BEA GDP data series from 1929 to the present and measuringworth.com as its GDP source from 1790 to 1928.

Agency Debt Update for 2017

On March 15, 2018, usgovernmentspending.com has updated its data for agency debt from the Federal Reserve Board database. Data is now available for the period 1945-2017. You can see our Agency Debt page here, and a comparison with the official "on-the-books" debt here.

For the period 2018 to 2023 usgovernmentspending.com has "guesstimated" the agency debt, assuming that it increases at the same rate as it did in 2016 to 2017.

See "Federal 'Agency Debt' Added" for explanation of  data derivation.

Data is downloaded from the FRB data download page for "Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1)" as follows.

1. Select a preformatted data package: "L.211 (A) Agency- and GSE-Backed Securities, n.s.a."
2. Click: Format package.
3. Select: 100 years.
4. Click: Go to Download.
5. Click: Download File.

Federal Budget for FY19 Released

On February 12, 2019, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the historical tables in the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2019. Actual revenue for FY 2017 and estimated revenue through FY 2023 come from Historical Tables 2.1, 2.4, and 2.5. Actual spending for FY 2017 and estimated spending at the subfunction level through FY 2023 come from Table 3.2. Budget Authority estimates come from Table 5.1, federal debt estimates come from Table 7.1 and GDP estimates come from Table 10.1. Intergovernmental transfers come from Table 12.3.

Here is how headline budget estimates for the upcoming FY 2019 fiscal year have changed since the release of the FY 2017 budget a year ago in 2016.

FY 2019 Federal Budget Changes Since 2017

$ billion	Estimate in FY18 Budget	Estimate in FY19 Budget	Change
Federal Outlays	$4,339.6	$4,406.7	+$67.1
Federal Receipts	$3,813.7	$3,422.3	-$391.4
Federal Deficit	$525.9	$984.4	+$458.5

You can see line item changes from budget to budget here. You can compare budget estimates with actuals here.

Account level spending estimates through FY 2023 come from the Outlays table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on February 12, 2018.

Account level budget authority estimates through FY 2023 come from the Budget Authority table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on February 12, 2018.