Final Federal Budget for FY18 Released

On May 23, 2017, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the historical tables in the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2018. Actual revenue for FY 2016 and estimated revenue through FY 2022 come from Historical Tables 2.1, 2.4, and 2.5. Actual spending for FY 2016 and estimated spending at the subfunction level through FY 2022 come from Table 3.2. Budget Authority estimates come from Table 5.1, federal debt estimates come from Table 7.1 and GDP estimates come from Table 10.1. Intergovernmental transfers come from Table 12.3.

Here is how headline budget estimates for the upcoming FY 2018 fiscal year have changed since the release of the FY 2017 budget a year ago in 2016.

FY 2018 Federal Budget Changes Since 2016

$ billion	Estimate in FY17 Budget	Estimate in FY18 Budget	Change
Federal Outlays	$4,352.2	$4,094.5	-$257.7
Federal Receipts	$3,898.6	$3,654.3	-$244.3
Federal Deficit	$453.6	$440.2	-$13.4

You can see line item changes from budget to budget here. You can compare budget estimates with actuals here.

Account level spending estimates through FY 2022 come from the Outlays table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on May 23, 2017.

Account level budget authority estimates through FY 2022 come from the Budget Authority table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on May 23, 2017.

State Finances for FY2015

On May 11, 2017 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2015 here, including spending and revenue for each individual state and for all states combined.

On May 20, 2017 we updated state and local spending and revenue data for FY2015 through FY2021 as follows:

1. We replaced "guesstimated" state spending and revenue data for FY2014 using the new FY2015 data from the Census Bureau.
2. We replaced "guesstimated" local spending and revenue data for FY 2015 with estimates for each spending and revenue category using the trends in state finances between FY 2014 and FY 2015.
3. We replaced "guesstimated" state revenue data for FY 2016 with data from the Census Bureau's quarterly state tax summary here.
4. We replaced "guesstimated" local revenue data for FY 2016 with estimates for each category using trends for each category of state revenue between FY 2014 and FY 2015.
5. We replaced "guesstimated" state and local spending and revenue for FY 2016 thru FY2021 with new guesstimates based on the latest Census Bureau data for FY 2015 state finances and FY 2016 quarterly tax data.

State Finances for FY2015
Estimate vs. Actual

$ billion	Guesstimate	Actual
Spending	$1,608	$1,677
Revenue	$1,874	$1,599

We expect the Census Bureau to release local spending and revenue data for FY 2015 not earlier than Summer 2017.

Gross State Product Data for 2016

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2016 on May 11, 2017.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2016 and projected nominal and real GSP through 2021 for each state using the projected national GDP numbers from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2017 Budget and the historical GDP data series from the BEA as a baseline. We will update the numbers with new budget GDP projections when the FY2018 budget is released.

As before we have projected individual state GSPs out to 2021 by applying a factor to reflect each state's deviation from the national growth rate. (E.g. In 2014 the national real GDP expanded by 2.4 percent. But North Dakota grew by 6.3 percent, a deviation of nearly 4 percent. The deviation is reduced by 40 percent for each year after 2014, making the assumption that each state will slowly revert to the national norm.)

Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2016 GSP growth rates.