Gross State Product Update for 2015

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2015 on June 14, 2016.

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs for 2015 and projected nominal and real GSP through 2020 for each state using the projected national GDP numbers from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2016 Budget and the historical GDP data series from the BEA as a baseline.

As before we have projected individual state GSPs out to 2021 by applying a factor to reflect each state's deviation from the national growth rate. (E.g. In 2014 the national real GDP expanded by 2.4 percent. But North Dakota grew by 6.3 percent, a deviation of nearly 4 percent. The deviation is reduced by 40 percent for each year after 2014, making the assumption that each state will slowly revert to the national norm.)

Usgovernmentspending.com displays individual state data going back to 1957, but BEA has nominal GSP data going back to only 1963, and real GSP data going back to 1987.  Also the 1987-1997 real GSP data is in 1997 dollars, not 2009 dollars like the 1997-present data, and the pre-1997 data is based on a different model than post 1997 data.  For the pre-1997 data we have factored it to remove any "bumps" over the 1997 transition.

Because usgovernmentspending.com needs GSP data to provide e.g., spending as a percent of GDP, we have extended the two BEA GSP data series back to 1957.  We have assumed that the rate of change of GSP prior to 1963 is the same as the national GDP and we have assumed that the rate of change of real GSP prior to 1987 is the same as the nation real GDP growth rate.

Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2015 GSP growth rates.

Medicare Part C Updated from 2016 Trustee Report

Usgovernmentspending.com has updated its estimate of Medicare Part C, the Medicare Advantage program using data in the Medicare Trustees Report of 2016 that was released June 22, 2016. You can see the results here.

The Budget of the United States Government reports Medicare outlays as a single line item, subfunction 571 in Historical Table 3.2, but Usgovernmentspending.com shows a breakdown of the Medicare program into its constituent parts, as follows:

1. Part A: Hospital Insurance
2. Part B: Supplementary Medical Insurance
3. Part C: Medicare Advantage
4. Part D: SMI Drug Plan

These data are constructed from data in the Public Budget Database and Table IV.C2 in the Medicare Trustees Report 2016. You can inspect the extracted data from Medicare Trustees Reports Table IV.C2 here.

See the blog entry that introduced Medicare Part C here.

Medicare/Social Security 2016 Trustee Reports Released

On June 22, 2016, the Center for Medicare Services released its annual Medicare Trustees Report, which projects Medicare spending out to 2090.  As in the past, the report shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the Medicare Outlook here based on data in the 2016 Medicare Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected Medicare Trustee forecasts going back to 2005.

On June 22, 2016, the Social Security Administration released its annual OASDI Trustees Report, which projects Social Security spending out to 2090.  As in the past, the report shows that Social Security spending will max out at about 6 percent of GDP.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the Social Security Outlook here based on data in the 2016 OASDI Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected OASDI Trustee forecasts going back to 1997.

State Finances for FY2014

On June 7, 2016 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2014 here, including spending and revenue for each individual state and for all states combined.

On June 9, 2016 we updated state and local spending and revenue data for FY2014 through FY2021 as follows:

1. We replaced "guesstimated" state spending and revenue data for FY2014 using the new FY2014 data from the Census Bureau.
2. We replaced "guesstimated" local spending and revenue data for FY 2014 with estimates for each spending and revenue category using the trends in state finances between FY 2013 and FY 2014.
3. We replaced "guesstimated" state revenue data for FY 2015 with data from the Census Bureau's quarterly state tax summary here.
4. We replaced "guesstimated" local revenue data for FY 2015 with estimates for each category using trends for each category of state revenue between FY 2015 and FY 2015.
5. We replaced "guesstimated" state and local spending and revenue for FY 2015 thru FY2021 with new guesstimates based on the latest Census Bureau data for FY 2014 state finances and FY 2015 quarterly tax data.

State Finances for FY2014
Estimate vs. Actual

$ billion	Guesstimate	Actual
Spending	$1,542	$1,540
Revenue	$1,743	$1,809

We expect the Census Bureau to release local spending and revenue data for FY 2014 not earlier than Summer 2016.