UsGovernmentSpending.com

State Finances Update for FY 2010

2011-12-27T14:38:00.000-08:00

On December 14, 2011 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2010 here, including spending and revenue for each individual state and for all states combined.

On December 27, 2011 we updated state and local spending and revenue data as follows:

We replaced "guesstimated" state spending and revenue data for FY2010 using the data from the Census Bureau.
We replaced "guesstimated" local spending and revenue data for FY 2010 with estimates for each spending and revenue category using the trends in state finances between FY 2009 and FY 2010.
We replaced "guesstimated" state revenue data for FY 2011 with data from the Census Bureau's quarterly state tax summary here.
We replaced "guesstimated" local revenue data for FY 2011 with estimates for each category using trends for each category of state revenue between FY 2010 and FY 2011.
We replaced "guesstimated" state and local spending and revenue for FY 2012 thru FY2017 with new guesstimates based on the latest Census Bureau data for FY 2010 state finances and FY 2011 quarterly tax data.

The Census Bureau expects to release local spending and revenue data for FY 2010 in July 2012.

Highlights: State spending on Welfare was up from a "guesstimated" $164 billion to $237 billion. Business and Other Revenue was up from a "guesstimated" $174 billion to $456 billion. This reflects the $289 billion profit reported on state pension plans for FY 2010, a partial recovery from the FY 2009 loss of $524 billion.

Revision to State and Local Data for 2001, 2003

2011-11-19T09:56:00.001-08:00

We have revised state and local spending and revenue data for 2001 and 2003.

For 2001 and 2003 the Census Bureau did not publish a local government survey sample, but only the raw Individual Unit Files. UsGovernmentSpending.com has used the data from the Individual Unit Files, but they are incomplete for some states, and showed huge declines in spending in some categories such as Education.

We have revised the presentation of state and local spending and revenue data for 2001 and 2003 as follows.

State spending and revenue for each item is shown as published in the State Government Finances for 2001 and 2003.
Local spending for each item is shown for 2001 by taking the average for 2000 and 2002.
Local spending for each item is shown for 2003 by taking the average for 2002 and 2004.
Local revenue for each item is shown for 2001 by taking the 2000 local value and applying the rate of change between 2000 and 2001 for the state revenue item to the corresponding local revenue item.
Local revenue for each item is shown for 2003 by taking the 2002 local value and applying the rate of change between 2002 and 2003 for the state revenue item to the corresponding local revenue item.
State-and-local spending and revenue items for 2001 and 2003 are computed as the sum of the state value and the local value.

State-and-local and local spending and revenue items are tagged as "interpolated" for 2001 and 2003.

Thanks to Ed Nevins for his advice and counsel.

State and Local Update for 2009

2011-10-31T18:20:00.000-07:00

On October 31, 2011 usgovernmentspending.com updated the state and local spending and revenue from FY 2009 to FY 2016 using the newly released Census Bureau State and Local Government Finances for FY 2009.

State and local spending and revenue for FY2009 are now actual historical spending as reported by the Census Bureau.

State tax numbers for 2010 and 2011 are those released by the Census Bureau in "Table 3 - Latest Tax Collections by State" of the Quarterly Summary of State & Local Tax Revenue. Local taxes for 2010 and 2011 are estimated by assuming the same year on year change as the state taxes for the same type. Taxes and revenues not included in the Quarterly Summary are "guesstimated" from trends established for 2008 to 2009.

State and local numbers for 2010 through 2016 were created to project forward the change between 2008 and 2009 (except where actual and estimated numbers are available from the Quarterly State and Local Revenue Summary). See Change to "Guesstimated" State and Local Spending for details of this procedure.

UPDATE: Numbers for state and local finances for 2007 and 2008 updated using Census Bureau revised data.

US Deficit for FY11

2011-10-22T11:06:00.001-07:00

On October 14, 2011, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and OMB Director Jacob Lew announced that the federal deficit for FY11 was $1.299 trillion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the federal budget published in February 2011:

Federal Finances FY11 Outcomes
	Budget billions	Latest billions
Receipts	$2,174	$2,302
Outlays	$3,819	$3,601
Deficit	$1,645	$1,299

usgovernmentspending.com now shows the new numbers for total outlays and receipts, but will not update detailed FY2011 numbers until the FY2013 federal budget is published in February 2012.

Change to "Guesstimated" State and Local Spending

2011-03-09T17:21:00.000-08:00

Up to now, the "guesstimated" state and local spending for years after the latest US Census Bureau report on State and Local Government Finances has been a simple projection of the change between the last two reported years. If, e.g., education spending increased by 5% between 2007 and 2008 we have constructed an education spending value for all future years by increasing each year by five percent.

Effective immediately we are changing the "guesstimated" method. The new method assumes that state and local spending and revenue in the next few years will trend back towards the average value recorded in the recent past, expressed as a percent of GDP (or GSP).

Here is the new method for computing "guesstimated" spending for all states combined and for each individual state.

Establish a five year Reference Period. At present the last year for which state spending is available is 2009, so the reference period is 2005 through 2009.
For each spending and revenue item calculate an average value for the Reference Period as percent of GDP for a combined state or local value, or as percent of Gross State Project (GSP) for individual states.
Compute a Projected Value (e.g., for 2010) that would continue the percentage change for the latest two years (2008 and 2009) for each spending or revenue item.
Compute a Revert-to-mean Value (e.g., for 2010) that would return the spending or revenue item to the average calculated for the Reference Period as percent of projected GDP for the US or state GSP for the year.
Calculate and save in the database (e.g., for 2010) a Mean Value for the spending/revenue item that is half way between the Projected Value and the Revert-to-mean Value.
Repeat procedure for all spending and revenue items.
Compute total spending and total revenue from new values for 2010.
Repeat for other states.

The projected value for US GDP is the value for each year from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables of the federal budget. The projected value for each state GSP is computed by applying the change in federal GDP growth rate to the last year's state GSP and then moving the state GSP growth rate towards the federal growth rate by 40 percent of the difference between the state and the federal growth rate.

The "guesstimated" value for state and local revenue code "X08 Employee Retirement - Earnings on Investments" is too volatile to be "guesstimated" using this method. It is computed by changing the latest year's value by 60 percent of the difference between the latest year's value and the average value for the Reference Period. This value, for all states combined, was a $500 billion loss in 2009. This method reverts "X08" to a substantial gain in 2010 and future years.

Federal Budget FY12 Released

2011-03-03T17:44:00.000-08:00

On February 14, 2011, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the historical tables in the FY12 federal budget. Actual revenue for FY 2010 and estimated revenue through FY 2016 come from Tables 4.1, 4.4, and 4.5. Actual spending for FY 2010 and estimated spending at the subfunction level through FY 2016 comes from Table 3.2. Account level spending estimates through FY 2016 come from the outlays table in the Public Budget Database. Federal debt estimates come from Table 7.1 and GDP estimates come from Table 10.1.

Federal Budget Analyst Added

2011-03-03T17:35:00.000-08:00

On February 12, 2011 we added Federal Budget Analyst to usgovernmentspending.com. Just in time for the FY12 federal budget release, this feature allows the user to view spending and revenue estimates for out years for each subfunction in the federal budget and also to compare estimates vs. actual for a specific fiscal year in different budgets. Click here to access this feature.

Also, we have added the CBO Long Term Outlook for the federal budget as published by the Congressional Budget Office here.

State Finances Update for FY 2009

2011-03-03T17:30:00.000-08:00

On January 12, 2011 we updated the state spending and revenue using the Census Bureau numbers for FY 2009 released early January. Local spending and revenue for 2009 was updated for each category by creating numbers for 2009 to change by the same percentage as the corresponding state number. State and local numbers for 2010 through 2016 were created to project forward the change between 2008 and 2009.

Gross State Product Update for 2009

2010-11-18T18:38:00.000-08:00

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2009 on November 18, 2010.

usgovernmentspending.com has updated its individual state GSPs and projected state nominal and real GSP through 2015 using projected national GDP growth rates from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables for the Federal FY2011 Budget.

This year we have projected individual state GSPs by applying a factor to reflect each state's deviation from the national growth rate. (E.g. In 2009 the national real GDP contracted by 2.4 percent. But Oklahoma grew by 6.6 percent, a deviation of about 9.0 percent. The deviation is reduced by 40 percent for each year after 2009, assuming that each state will slowly revert to the national norm.)

Click here to view a complete list of US states and their 2009 GSP growth rates.

State Tax FY10 Update

2010-10-02T22:31:00.000-07:00

On September 29, 2010 we applied the latest quarterly update on state taxes released by the Census Bureau. This means that we now display actual reported state taxes for Fiscal Year 2010 ending June 30, 2010.

The data used is Table 3, Latest Tax Collections by State. These numbers, for the quarter ending June 30, have been combined with the numbers for the three previous quarters and applied to individual state taxes for FY 2010. We have also estimated local tax collections by applying the percentage change from FY09 to FY10 for each state tax data item to the local FY09 value, and then "guesstimated" taxes, state and local, for each item out to FY15.

You can see the results at usgovernmentrevenue.com here. State taxes are shown in blue as actual, and local taxes are shown in black italic as estimated.

Note that fees and charges, and business revenue are not included in the Census Bureau update.

Compare States on Spending and Taxes

2010-09-18T20:22:00.001-07:00

At usgovernmentspending.com you've been able to look at state and local spending for each state for years.

But now there's something new. Now you can list spending or tax revenue for all the states at once. That way you can line them up and compare them, on actual dollar spending, or on spending as a percent of Gross State Product.

Click the column headings to reorder the states by state spending, local spending, or combined state and local spending.

You can list overall state spending, or major spending functions like education. And you can list overall revenue, or individual taxes like property tax.

Head on over to http://usgovernmentspending.com/state_spend_gdp_population and take a look.

Update to State and Local Data: FY 2008

2010-07-18T19:24:00.000-07:00

On July 18, 2010, usgovernmentspending.com updated its database with the latest data release on State and Local Government Spending and Revenue from the US Census Bureau. The latest data is for fiscal year 2008. Previously the state data displayed for 2008 was reported, and local data was "guesstimated" based on a crude projection of spending and revenue levels from 2007.

The update includes data for individual states and data and aggregate spending and revenue data for all states.

State tax data has been updated for FY 2009 using quarterly tax reports from the US Census Bureau. State tax data has been updated for FY 2010, using data for the final quarter, calendar 2010 second quarter, from the same quarter in 2009.

Here is the current status of state and local government spending and revenue data.

Data up to and including 2008 is actual data reported to and published by the Census Bureau.
State tax data for 2009 is actual data reported to and published by the Census Bureau in State Government Tax Collections.
State tax data for 2010 is actual data reported to and published by the Census Bureau in State Government Tax Collections for Q1, Q2, and Q3. Q4 uses FY 2009 data from the Census Bureau. Q4 data will be available at the end of September 2010.
Data for 2009 (except state tax data for 2009 and 2010) and subsequent years is "guesstimated" by projecting the change in each spending or revenue item between 2007 and 2008 forward. Maximum change is 15 percent. Minimum change is zero percent.

Caveat on "Guesstimated" Data

The crude "guesstimation" that usgovernmentspending.com applies to data after 2008 (the last year for which the US Census Bureau provides data) is a way to get a rough look at total government spending in the present year and the near future.

But in the current recession state and local spending is probably higher than "guesstimated" and revenue is probably significantly lower than "guesstimated."

Upcoming Data Updates

The Census Bureau will report state tax revenues for calendar 2010 Q2 on September 30, 2010.

The Census Bureau will release State Government Finances for 2009 (i.e. spending and revenue) in late Fall 2010.

The Census Bureau will next update State and Local Government Finances (i.e. spending and revenue data) in July 2011.

Improved Display of Data Source Type

2010-04-05T11:12:00.000-07:00

For years usgovernmentspending.com and usgovernmentrevenue.com have shown on the Numbers tab the data source type for the spending and revenue numbers. The data source type for each number is shown by color code as follows, in decreasing order of reliability, as follows: Actual, Interpolated, Budgeted, Estimated, or "Guesstimated."

Now we are showing the data source for each number on the home page and on the Charts tab. Bar chart values are show in blue for "actual" and red for "estimated" (including budgeted, estimated, and "guesstimated"). In addition, values shown as numbers on the Charts tab are tagged with their data source, a-i-b-e-g, as appropriate.

Typically, the values that you see on the site are "rolled up" from individual spending items into broad functional categories. The rolled-up values may include, e.g., actual and guesstimated. When rolled-up values have different data source types, the type displayed is always the less reliable one. For example, if any component of the rolled-up value was sourced as "guesstimated" then the rolled-up value will display as "guesstimated."

Federal Budget Update: FY 2011

2010-02-06T18:20:00.000-08:00

On February 1, 2010, the president released the federal budget for fiscal year 2011. The numbers on usgovernmentspending.com and usgovernmentrevenue.com now reflect the new budget.

Spending numbers at the subfunction level have been updated from Table 3.2 in the Historical Tables. Fiscal year 2009 has been updated with actual numbers for the fiscal year that ended 9/30/2009, and Fiscal year 2010 thru 2014 have been updated with the new estimates. Fiscal year 2015 estimates appear for the first time.

Spending numbers at the agency account level have been updated from outlays.csv in the Public Budget Database.

Revenue numbers have been updated from Table 2.1 Table 2.4, and Table 2.5 in the Historical Tables. Fiscal year 2009 has been updated with actual numbers, and Fiscal year 2010 thru 2014 with the new estimates. Fiscal year 2015 estimates appear for the first time.

Projected GDP numbers have been updated from Table 10.1 in the Historical Tables. GDP for 2009 through 2014 has been updated. GDP for 2015 appears for the first time.

Federal Debt numbers have been updated from Table 7.1 in the Historical Tables. Debt for 2009 and projected through 2014 have been updated. Debt for 2015 appears for the first time.

Revised Release of State and Local Data for 2007

2009-12-24T17:33:00.000-08:00

On December 24, 2009, usgovernmentspending.com updated its database with the revised data release for 2007 on State and Local Government Spending and Revenue from the US Census Bureau. The latest data updates the original 2007 data released in September 2009.

This update includes state and local data for individual states and data and aggregate spending and revenue data for all states combined.

Here is the current status of state and local government spending and revenue data.

State and local data up to and including 2007 is actual data reported to and published by the Census Bureau.
State spending and revenue data for 2008 is actual data reported to and published by the Census Bureau.
State tax data for 2009 is actual data reported to and published by the Census Bureau in State Government Tax Collections.
Data for 2008 (except state data for 2008 and state tax data for 2009) and subsequent years is "guesstimated" by projecting the change in each spending or revenue item between 2006 and 2007 forward. Maximum change is 15 percent. Minimum change is zero percent.

Caveat on "Guesstimated" Data

The crude "guesstimation" that usgovernmentspending.com applies to data after 2007 (the last year for which the US Census Bureau provides data) is a way to get a rough look at total government spending in the present year and the near future.

But in the current recession, state and local spending is probably higher than "guesstimated" and revenue is probably significantly lower than "guesstimated."

The US Census Bureau report of State Government Tax Collections for 2009, scheduled for release in March 2010, will be the first look at the effect of the recession on state government revenues.

Upcoming Data Updates

The Census Bureau will update State and Local Government Finances (i.e. spending and revenue data) for 2005 and 2006 in January 2010.

The Census Bureau will release State Government Tax Collections for 2009 in March 2010.

The Census Bureau will release State and Local Government Finances for 2008 (i.e. spending and revenue) in Summer 2010.

Data Update Schedule

2009-12-12T14:49:00.000-08:00

Here's a table that tells you when data was last updated, and when to expect fresh updates from usgovernmentspending.com.

Month	Data Type	Last Update		Next Update
Jan	State Spending/Revenue census.gov	December 2009	FY08 data	"Winter 2010"	FY09 data
Feb	Federal Spending/Revenue gpoaccess.gov	Feb 2010	FY11 Budget	Feb 2011	FY12 Budget
Feb	Actual US GDP measuringworth.com	February 2010	2009 data	February 2011	2010 data
Feb	Forecast US GDP gpoaccess.gov	February 2010	2010 ff	February 2011	2011 ff
Jul	State and Local Spending/Revenue census.gov	Jul 2010	FY08 data	July 2011	FY09 data
Oct	State Quarterly Taxes census.gov	October 2010	FY10 data	October 2011	FY11 data
Nov	Actual State GDP bea.gov	July 2009	2008 data	Nov 2010	2009 data
Dec	US, State Population census.gov	Dec 2009	7/09 data	Dec 2010	7/10 data

Update: State Data for FY 2008

2009-12-12T14:14:00.000-08:00

On December 12, 2009, usgovernmentspending.com updated its database with the latest data release on State Government Spending and Revenue from the US Census Bureau. The latest data is for fiscal year 2008. Previously the data displayed for 2008 was "guesstimated" based on a crude projection of spending and revenue levels from 2007.

This includes data for individual states and data and aggregate spending and revenue data for all states.

Here is the current status of state and local government spending and revenue data.

Data for state and local governments up to and including 2007 is actual data reported to and published by the Census Bureau.
State government spending and revenue data for 2008 is actual data reported to and published by the Census Bureau.
State government tax data for 2008 is actual data reported to and published by the Census Bureau.
State data for 2009 (except state tax data for 2009) and subsequent years is "guesstimated" by projecting the change in each spending or revenue item between 2007 and 2008 forward. Maximum change is 15 percent. Minimum change is zero percent.
Local government and combined state and local data for 2008 and subsequent years is "guesstimated" by projecting the change in each spending or revenue item between 2006 and 2007 forward. Maximum change is 15 percent. Minimum change is zero percent.

Caveat on "Guesstimated" Data

But in the current recession state and local spending is probably higher than "guesstimated" and revenue is probably significantly lower than "guesstimated."

The US Census Bureau report of State Government Tax Collections for 2009, scheduled for release in March 2010, will be the first look at the effect of the recession on state government revenues.

Upcoming Data Updates

The Census Bureau will update State and Local Government Finances (i.e. spending and revenue data) for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in December 2009.

The Census Bureau will release State Government Tax Collections for 2009 in March 2010.

The Census Bureau will release State and Local Government Finances for 2008 (i.e. spending and revenue) in Summer 2010.

Update to State and Local Data: FY 2007

2009-10-04T15:11:00.000-07:00

On October 4, 2009, usgovernmentspending.com updated its database with the latest data release on State and Local Government Spending and Revenue from the US Census Bureau. The latest data is for fiscal year 2007. Previously the data displayed for 2007 was "guesstimated" based on a crude projection of spending and revenue levels from 2006.

This includes data for individual states and data and aggregate spending and revenue data for all states.

Here is the current status of state and local government spending and revenue data.

Data up to and including 2007 is actual data reported to and published by the Census Bureau.
State tax data for 2008 is actual data reported to and published by the Census Bureau in State Government Tax Collections.
Data for 2008 (except state tax data for 2008) and subsequent years is "guesstimated" by projecting the change in each spending or revenue item between 2006 and 2007 forward. Maximum change is 15 percent. Minimum change is zero percent.

Caveat on "Guesstimated" Data

But in the current recession state and local spending is probably higher than "guesstimated" and revenue is probably significantly lower than "guesstimated."

The US Census Bureau report of State Government Tax Collections for 2009, scheduled for release in March 2010, will be the first look at the effect of the recession on state government revenues.

Upcoming Data Updates

The Census Bureau will update State and Local Government Finances (i.e. spending and revenue data) for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in November 2009.

The Census Bureau will release State Government Finances for 2008 (i.e. spending and revenue) in late Fall 2009.

The Census Bureau will release State Government Tax Collections for 2009 in March 2010.

The Census Bureau will release State and Local Government Finances for 2008 (i.e. spending and revenue) in Summer 2010.

OMB Mid-Session Review

2009-08-25T12:12:00.001-07:00

On August 25, 2009, The US Office of Management and Budget issued a Mid-Session Review of the Federal Budget. It showed sharply higher spending and lower revenues for FY 2010 than published in the full budget published in May 2009, as follows:

Office of Management and Budget Mid-Session Review ($ billion)
OMB Estimates of Federal Budget	FY 2009	FY 2010
Receipts (May)	2,157	2,332
Receipts (August)	2,074	2,264
Difference	-83	-68

Outlays (May)	3,998	3,591
Outlays (August)	3,563	3,766
Difference	-345	+175

Deficit (May)	1,841	1,258
Deficit (August)	1,580	1,502
Difference	-261	+244

The new estimates show a deterioration in receipts, and a sharp decline in the expected spending for the remainder of FY 2009. But FY 2010 spending is expected to be higher, thus decreasing the deficit for 2009 and increasing it for 2010.

Update: State and Local Spending

2009-06-23T15:46:00.000-07:00

Up till now, usgovernmentspending.com and usgovernmentrevenue.com have shown state and local spending and revenue prior to 1992 as combined state-and-local numbers. The Census Bureau provides tables of state-and-local spending and revenue in its annual Statistical Abstract and in the retrospective Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970.

But the Census Bureau also publishes in those publications tables of separate state spending and revenue and local spending and revenue. usgovernmentspending.com has now loaded the separate state and local spending from 1902 to 1991 into usgovernmentspending.com. usgovernmentrevenue.com has now loaded the separate state and local revenue from 1902 to 1991 into usgovernmentrevenue.com.

There are, however, gaps in the record. For about 15 years between 1971 and 1984 there are no detailed records of spending by function broken down into state and local separately. And between 1971 and 1991 there are no records of utility spending and revenue broken down into state and local separately. In addition, of course, the Census Bureau only reports for even-years between 1932 and 1952, and prior to 1932 only reports for 1902, 1913, 1922, and 1927. So there is quite a lot of "interpolation."

You can tell which numbers are "actual" and which are "interpolated" in the tables of annual spending/revenue under the NUMBERS tab. Actual numbers are shown in blue and bold. Interpolated numbers are blue, bold, and italic.

State GDP Information

2009-05-23T09:31:00.000-07:00

Historical State GDP

USgovernmentSpending.com obtains historical State GDP for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia from the US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

The BEA produces two state GDP series, an SIC-based series up through 1997 and an NAICS series from 1997 through the present. Against the recommendation of BEA, we have spliced the two series together. You can examine the BEA's state GDP data series here. You can see the state GDP series for any state by running a state chart here.

Projected State GDP

USgovernmentSpending.com needs GDP through 2014 in order to allow display and charting of spending as percent of GDP. Obviously, any projection of state GDP is speculative. The estimates of future national GDP, such as those made in the president's federal budget, are notoriously unreliable.

State GDP from 2008 to 2014 is projected by using exactly the same annual change for each state in GDP (and real GDP) as forecast for the national economy in the president's budget in Table 10.1 -- Gross Domestic Product and Deflators Used in the Historical Tables: 1940–201.

The next update to state GDP is June 2, 2009 when BEA will report state GDPs for 2008. USGovernmentSpending.com will replace the current projected numbers for each state with the BEA numbers and then reproject the years 2009 thru 2014 from the new baseline for each state using the national GDP projections from the president's budget.

May 11 Updates: Full US Budget

2009-05-11T21:27:00.000-07:00

On May 11, 2009, the US Government Printing Office published the full US budget for FY 2010, including the customary Historical Tables, the main data source for usgovernmentspending.com.

We have now updated usgovernmentspending.com with the new FY10 data. This means that:

The home page charts and tables are now updated with the latest data on spending, deficits, and US federal debt using numbers from the FY10 budget.
The Numbers page, or "classic" home page, now shows detailed spending for all the great heads of federal expenditure using numbers from the FY10 budget.
The Budget page now shows updated charts of the first Obama budget.
Numbers for FY 2008 are now the actual numbers, replacing budgeted numbers, as reported in Table 3.2 of the Historical Tables.
Revenues at usgovernmentrevenue.com now include the latest FY10 numbers.

UPDATED: Final major task of the FY10 budget update is complete. The Outlays, about 4,000 line items from the Public Database outlays.csv, are now loaded up for FY10.

Still No Historical Tables

2009-05-07T11:08:00.000-07:00

Today, May 7, 2009, the Obama administration released a budget Appendix. It contains the usual breakdown of spending by federal agency.

But usgovernmentspending.com will not have updated FY10 numbers until the Historical Tables are published. The Historical Tables include Table 3.2, which has federal expenditure by subfunction, and Table 4.1, outlays, about 4,000 items of federal expenditure.

Here is the state of play on the FY10 Federal Budget so far (see here and here):

A New Era of Responsibility: Renewing America’s Promise - Published 2/22
Analytical Perspectives
Historical Tables
Appendix - Published 5/4
Updated Summary Tables

Thanks to everyone for your patience.

Let's Play Policy Analyst

2009-05-03T17:27:00.000-07:00

How well do you know your government programs? How many billion did the US governments--federal, state, and loca--spend on education in 1953?

Thought so. But but you can test and hone your knowledge with the new usgovernmentspending.com Policy Analyst game.

Go ahead. Imagine you are a policy analyst from the Brookings Institution, or maybe the American Enterprise Institute. See if you can grab all the biggest programs for your side.

The one who dies with the most programs wins. Right?

Go ahead and test your skill. Click here to start.

New Home Page

2009-04-24T11:49:00.001-07:00

We've created a new home page for usgovernmentspending.com.

Why? Because usgovernmentspending.com is not just for policy wonks but for ordinary Americans concerned about where their money goes.

The new home page features three charts and a small table about government spending, federal, state, and local, in the United States:

A bar chart of total government spending in the US centering on the current year
A pie chart showing how federal, state, and local spending divide up the spending pie
A pie chart showing the division of the economy into private sector and public sector
A table showing total government spending and debt in the US over five years

If you like, you can copy the charts and save them on your own computer.

But what if you are a conservative and you like the old ways at usgovernmentspending.com? What if you like a comforting wall of numbers instead of a bunch of charts? No problem. Just click here and you’ll get to the “classic” usgovernmentspending.com home page.

On the usgovernmentspending.com main menu across the top of every page, we now have the following tabs:

HOME - the new home page
NUMBERS - the “classic” home page
CHARTS - the time-series chart page (also has download feature)
BUDGET - headline charts on the current federal budget
FEATURE - a fact sheet for Tea Party enthusiasts
DOWNLOAD - the gateway to data downloading at usgovernmentspending.com

If you’d like to comment on this change, please use the comments section below, or the Leave a Comment link in the right column.

New "Tea Party" Page

2009-04-15T10:09:00.000-07:00

The "Tea Party" movement has appeared out of nowhere in the past two months. Its principal concern seems to be taxes and a fear about what the huge deficits and bailouts will do to peoples’ lives.

As a special service usgovernmentspending.com has created a Tea Party Fact Sheet with charts and links that provide context for today’s pressing tax and spending issues.

After all, usgovernmentspending.com has over a century of spending data available for anyone, anytime, for free.

New "Quick Chart"

2009-04-12T08:42:00.000-07:00

Now usgovernmentspending.com has a Quick Chart feature, so you can get a time-series chart of government spending quickly and easily. Here's how it works.

Click the icon when it's displayed on any line of spending.
You'll get a 20-year chart of government spending—federal, state, and local—for that function.

That's it.

Then you can go to work to customize the chart for your needs. For instance:

You can add additional data series.
You can change the start year and end year.
You can switch from displaying “$ billion” to percent of GDP.
You can switch from color to black-and-white

Go ahead. It's your choice.

What's Included in "Welfare?"

2009-04-07T08:40:00.000-07:00

From Daniela, the following question:

I am trying to figure out what exactly do you include in your "welfare" section. Would you mind elaborating as to what is included in this section?

The simple answer is: Go to usgovernmentspending.com and turn on codes. It's one of the settings in the Units dropdown. Or click here.

When you select codes you can see the description of each code by hovering the mouse over the code.

But here are the codes used in the Welfare section, with their descriptions alongside so you don't have to go click here. The numeric codes, e.g. "603", are federal; the codes starting with a letter, e.g. "E77", are state and local.

Code	Description
603	Unemployment compensation
604	Housing assistance
605	Food and nutrition assistance
609	Other income security
B22	Federal Intergovernmental - Employment Security Administration
B50	Federal Intergovernmental - Housing and Community Development
E22	Current Operations - Social Insurance Administration
E50	Current Operations - Housing and Community Development
E75	Current Operations - Public Welfare, Vendor Payments for Other Purposes
E77	Current Operations - Public Welfare Institutions
E79	Current Operations - Public Welfare - Other
F22	Construction - Social Insurance Administration
F50	Construction - Housing and Community Development
F75	Construction - Public Welfare, Vendor Payments for Other Purposes
F77	Construction - Public Welfare Institutions
F79	Construction - Public Welfare - Other
G22	Other Capital Outlay - Social Insurance Administration
G50	Other Capital Outlay - Housing and Community Development
G75	Other Capital Outlay - Public Welfare, Vendor Payments for Other Purposes
G77	Other Capital Outlay - Public Welfare Institutions
G79	Other Capital Outlay - Public Welfare - Other
J67	Assistance and Subsidies – Public Welfare, Federal Categorical Assistance Programs
J68	Assistance and Subsidies – Public Welfare, Cash Assistance Programs – Other
Y05	Unemployment Compensation - Benefit Payments
Y06	Unemployment Compensation - Extended and Special Payments
Y14	Workers Compensation - Benefit Payments
Y53	Other In Trust - Benefit Payment

You can find out what's in the other usgovernmentspending.com categories by clicking here.

April 4 Update: Corrections and Welfare Issue

2009-04-05T11:51:00.000-07:00

On March 22, usgovernmentspending.com user James filed the following report:

I have noticed what appears to be an anomaly in the S&L data.. For example, in the "Protection" series, inflation adjusted S&L spending jumps from $55 bn to $118 bn between 1991 and 1992. Healthcare increases from $116 bn to $212 bn. At the same time, welfare spending drops for these years from $208 bn to $114 bn. Most other indicators for S&L spending between 1991 and 1992 also show uncharacteristically large changes, although not of these magnitudes. I suspect there is something wrong with the data for those years.

I found that there are two problems here that arise out of a "seam" in the data, the transition between a fine-grained US Census Bureau dataset that starts in 1992 and the table "State and Local Governments -- Summary of Finances" that appears in the annual Statistical Abstract.

Before 1992, the Census Bureau doesn't list "Corrections." So there's a hole in Protection.
Before 1992, the Census Bureau lumps all welfare--cash, social services, and health care--as Public Welfare. At usgovernmentspending.com we like to keep health care separate from welfare. So before 1992 the Welfare category suddenly includes a bunch of health care.

To solve these problems we have made the following changes to usgovernmentspending.com:

We've created a new data view called "census." This new view arranges data pretty well according to the categorization in the Census Bureau tables published in the annual Statistical Abstract entitled "State and Local Governments -- Summary of Finances" and "All Governments -- Revenue and Expenditure, by Level of Government." This new view will experience a minimum of jumps and "seams."
We've added views to the data-series Chart function. Up till now you could only chart the "default" view.
We've unpacked the census category "Public Welfare" by subtracting the Federal line item for payments to Medicaid vendors. There is data on Medicaid payments to states in the president's budget's historical data Outlays spreadsheet going back to 1962. In the default usgovernmentspending.com this line item will be counted as health care. In the "census" view it will be counted as welfare.
We've found a line item for Corrections in the Statistical Abstract "All Governments" table at the state and local levels. This item continues in the pre-1970 Bicentennial Edition, but only at the state level. We have done a bit of massaging and produced a Corrections data series from 1902 to 1991.
We've also cleaned up some holes in the Other Spending category so that the numbers add up properly.

Many thanks to James for identifying the problem at the "seam." Oh yes. We are also adding this blog to the usgovernmentspending.com menu system.

Propose a Feature

2009-03-31T15:21:00.000-07:00

You can use the comments below to propose an improvement to usgovernmentspending.com.

Better still, email me at chrischantrill at gmail.com.

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File a Bug

2009-03-31T15:20:00.001-07:00

To file a bug please email me direct at chrischantrill at gmail.com. Then I can send you a $5 gift card and thank you for your help!

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2009-03-31T15:19:00.001-07:00

Please use the comments feature below to comment on usgovernmentspending.com.

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World War II US Defense Spending

2009-03-31T14:46:00.000-07:00

DURING WORLD War II defense spending in the United States exploded from two percent of GDP in 1940 to a peak of 42 percent in 1945 and then back down to seven percent by 1947.

But the data series of “Federal Government Expenditure, by Function: 1902 to 1970” in the Census Bureau’s Historical Statistics of the United States: From Colonial Times to 1970 only tabulates federal spending every two years: 1940, 1942, 1944, etc.

Fortunately, the Executive Branch’s budget documents published by the US Government Printing Office at gpoaccess.gov include a set of historical tables, including Table 3.1 — Outlays by Superfunction and Function: 1940–2012. This table includes spending for national defense for each year of World War II. The problem is that the numbers in Table 3.1 don’t match up with the Census Bureau numbers in Historical Statistics.

Comparison of World War II Defense Spending (millions of dollars)
Spending Item	1940	1941	1942	1943	1944	1945	1946	1947	1948
Census Bureau Numbers for “National defense and international relations”
Total	1,590		26,555		85,503		50,461		16,075
Military services only	1,567		22,633		74,670		42,677		10,642
Executive Branch budget numbers in Table 3.1
National Defense	1,660	6,435	25,658	66,699	79,143	82,965	42,681	12,808	9,105

You can see the problem. Not only does the Census Bureau not include the odd years, but the numbers don’t agree with the Executive Branch budget.

We chose to fill in the missing numbers in the the Census Bureau dataset by making them track the trajectory of the numbers in the Executive Branch dataset. Here are the results:

Construction of World War II Defense Spending Dataset (millions of dollars)
Spending Item	1940	1941	1942	1943	1944	1945	1946	1947	1948
Census Bureau numbers interpolated with numbers from Executive Branch dataset
Total expenditure	10,061	14,161	35,549	82,980	100,520	106,877	66,534	41,403	35,592
Total defense & intl	1,590	6,696	26,555	69,884	85,503	92,016	50,461	19,560	16,075
Military only	1,567	5,875	22,633	60,882	74,670	80,617	42,677	13,888	10,642
Executive Branch budget numbers in Table 3.1
Total federal outlays	9,468	13,653	35,137	78,555	91,304	92,712	55,232	34,496	29,764
National defense	1,660	6,435	25,658	66,699	79,143	82,965	42,681	12,808	9,105

We have interpolated values for national defense and for total federal spending in the odd years by translating the shape of the Executive Branch data into the Census Bureau dataset.

World War I US Defense Spending

2009-03-31T14:43:00.000-07:00

DURING WORLD War I defense spending in the United States exploded from less than one percent of GDP in 1915 to a peak of 14 percent in 1919 and then back down to one percent by 1923.

But the data series of “Series Y 605-637. Federal Government Expenditure, by Function: 1902 to 1970” in the Census Bureau’s Historical Statistics of the United States: From Colonial Times to 1970 only tabulates federal spending for 1913 and 1922, completely missing out on the years of World War I.

But the Census Bureau does publish annual federal government expenditures in another table, “Series Y 457-465. Outlays of the Federal Government: 1789-1970.” The problem is that the numbers in the two Census Bureau tables don’t match up.

Comparison of World War I Defense Spending (millions of dollars)
Spending Item	1913	1914	1915	1916	1917	1918	1919	1920	1921	1922
Census Bureau Numbers from “Series Y 605-637. Federal Government Expenditure, by Function: 1902 to 1970”
Total Spending	970									3,763
Total national defense	250									875
Military services only	245									864
Interest	23									988
Census Bureau Numbers from “Series Y 457-465. Outlays of the Federal Government: 1789-1970.”
Total Spending	715	725	746	713	1,954	12,677	18,493	6,358	5,062	3,289
Total defense spending	335	347	343	337	618	6,149	11,011	2,358	1,768	935
War Dept. spending	202	208	202	183	378	4,870	9,009	1,622	1,118	458
Navy Dept. spending	133	139	141	154	240	1,279	2,002	736	650	477
Interest	23	23	23	23	25	189	619	1,020	999	991

You can see the problem. The entire war spending effort is missing from the data series that we are using. And in 1913 and 1922 they don’t match up.

We chose to fill in the missing numbers by matching the spending numbers from “Outlays of the Federal Government: 1789-1970” to the numbers on the incomplete “Federal Government Expenditure by Function: 1902-1970.” then track the trajectory of the numbers in the Outlays dataset. Here are the results:

Construction of World War I Defense Spending Dataset (millions of dollars)
Spending Item	1913	1914	1915	1916	1917	1918	1919	1920	1921	1922
Numbers interpolated from Outlay table shown in italic.
Total expenditure	970	1,004	1,050	1,041	2,306	13,054	18,894	6,783	5,512	3,763
Total defense & intl	250	265	264	260	544	6,078	10,943	2,292	1,705	875
Military only	245	259	257	253	536	6,070	10,934	2,283	1,695	864
Interest	23	23	22	22	24	187	617	1,018	996	988

We have interpolated values for national defense and for total federal spending by applying the entire Outlays data items to the Expenditures table by adjusting all numbers so that they match the numbers in the Expenditure table for 1913 and 1922.

All About Intergovernmental Transfers

2009-03-31T14:38:00.000-07:00

Federal spending numbers at usgovernmentspending.com come from the OMB budget. They include direct spending on programs and also grants to states and local governments. State and local spending numbers come from the US Census Bureau. They are "direct spending" net of monies transferred to other governments.
Monies transferred to other governments are called intergovernmental transfers. To avoid double-counting at usgovernmentspending.com we show a “Gov. Xfer” column. It represents intergovernmental transfers from the federal government to the states and local governments. For instance, Medicaid (included under Health Care) is a joint federal-state program in which the federal government reimburses state governments for 50 percent or more of their expenses.
You can see that Health Care has the biggest “Gov. Xfer” number.
The intergovernmental transfer numbers used in the Numbers table are all Census Bureau “B” codes, as described in Census Bureau's Government Finance & Employment Classification Manual. For example, Census Bureau code “B01” is an intergovernmental transfer for “Air Transportation (Airports)”. The numbers are rolled up to provide the totals you can see at the top level.
If you drill down two levels (using the [+] controls) you will uncover the specific Census Bureau “B” spending codes used to compute the “rolled-up” intergovernmental transfer numbers. Each code is a link to the Census Bureau page that lists codes.
In summary, usgovernmentspending.com shows federal spending amounts as published by OMB that include monies transferred to other governments, but shows state and local spending as "direct spending" net of transfers to other governments as published by the US Census Bureau. Total spending is calculated as the sum of OMB federal spending plus Census Bureau state and local spending less "intergovernmental transfers" as published by the US Census Bureau.
UPDATED 6/6/2011

Federal Spending at the Agency Code Level

2009-03-31T14:35:00.000-07:00

IF YOU DRILL down below the federal subfunction level you can see federal spending at the agency code level. This spending information is obtained from Outlays, an Excel spreadsheet (4.5MB) that contains federal spending numbers classified by department, bureau, and agency code for FY 1962 through FY 2008. There are about 4,000 line items at the agency code level. The file can be downloaded from Budget of the United States Government: Public Budget Database Fiscal Year 2008 in xls, csv, or zip format. Only spending line items in excess of $0.05 billion are displayed atusgovernmentspending.com.

Table of Data Sources by Year

2009-03-31T08:14:00.000-07:00

THE FOLLOWING table specifies the source of government spending and revenue data for each range of years for which usgovernmentspending.com provides government spending data and usgovernmentrevenue.com provides government revenue data.

UPDATED: 5/12/2011

United States Federal, State, and Local Government Spending and Revenue Sources of Spending and Revenue Data
Year	Federal Spending and Revenue	Intergovernmental Transfer	State Spending and Revenue	Local Spending and Revenue
2016 thru 2011	budgeted US Budget Historical Tables FY 2012 (pdf) Table 2.1 (xls) Table 2.4 (xls) Table 2.5 (xls) Table 3.2 (xls) Table 7.1 (xls) Table 10.1 (xls)	guesstimated by usgovernmentspending.com
2010 thru 2009	actual US Budget Historical Tables FY 2012 (pdf) Table 2.1 (xls) Table 2.4 (xls) Table 2.5 (xls) Table 3.2 (xls) Table 7.1 (xls) Table 10.1 (xls)	guesstimated by usgovernmentspending.com
2008 thru 1992	actual US Budget Historical Tables FY 2012 (pdf) Table 2.1 (xls) Table 2.4 (xls) Table 2.5 (xls) Table 3.2 (xls) Table 7.1 (xls) Table 10.1 (xls)	actual US Census Bureau State and Local Government Finances: 2007-08 2006-07 2005-06 2004-05 2003-04 2002-03 2001-02 etc.
1991 thru 1962	actual US Budget Historical Tables FY 2012 (pdf) Table 2.1 (xls) Table 2.4 (xls) Table 2.5 (xls) Table 3.2 (xls) Table 7.1 (xls) Table 10.1 (xls)	actual US Census Bureau Statistical Abstract of the United States 1993, Table: 474 etc.
1961 thru 1950	actual US Census Bureau Bicentennial Edition: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970
1961 thru 1902	actual; and interpolated US Census Bureau Bicentennial Edition: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970 See also: World War II Spending and: World War I Spending
1901 thru 1792	actual US Census Bureau Bicentennial Edition: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970	none

How We Got the Data for usgovernmentspending.com

2009-03-30T18:49:00.000-07:00

THE government spending tables on this site aggregate all government spending in the United States of America by fiscal year organized by government function.

Most of the data is actual government spending as reported by the Office of Management and Budget or the United States Census Bureau. But there is also interpolated data for the years not covered by the data sources. In addition, we have included budgeted and estimated spending as well. We have used color and italics to tell you the source of each item of spending.

Here is the key:

Actual reported government spending is shown in blue text
Interpolated data filling in for missing years in the source records is shown in blue italic text
Budgeted spending is shown in normal text
Estimated spending is shown in italic text
“Guesstimated” spending, i.e. future state and local spending projected by usgovernmentspending.com, is shown in red italic text

You can use controls on the table to change the year or to drill down to view more detailed spending information.

Data Sources

The government spending information is obtained from several sources of data.

Federal spending since 1962 and 2012 is obtained from a spreadsheet file Table 3.2 - Outlays by Function and Subfunction in Budget of the United States Government published by the Executive Office of the President of the United States. It contains actual historical federal government spending from 1962 to the fiscal year ending before the current budget, and budgeted and estimated spending the current fiscal year and out five years.

State and local government spending from 1992 is obtained from tables of state and local government spending published annually by the United States Census Bureau. For instance, the data for fiscal year 2004 is available as a zip file: State by Level of Government - Comma Delimited.

State and local government spending from 1962 to 1991 is obtained from tables of state and local government spending in the Statistical Abstract of the United States published by the United States Census Bureau.

Federal, state, and local government spending prior to 1962 is obtained from “Series Y 605-637. Federal Government Expenditure, by Function: 1902 to 1970” and from “Series Y 682-709. State and Local Government Expenditure, by Function: 1902 to 1970.” These are tables included in Bicentennial Edition: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970 published by the United States Census Bureau.

This information is given in tabular form in Government Spending Data: Sources.

Guesstimated Spending

The federal government provides budgetary data for the current year and the next year. It also provides estimated budgetary data for the following four years.

But the Census Bureau data on state and local spending is historical data only. It does not include any information on state and local budgets or on state and local government spending projections.

So at usgovernmentspending.com we have massaged the recent historical data to come up with a “guesstimate” of future state and local spending.

The method used is to take the average change in spending for the last four years of historical data and estimate the percentage change in spending that this represents, limiting the percentage change to plus 20 percent and zero. We then apply that percentage for each year after the last year in the Census Bureau data.

You will notice that this method has its problems. The line “All Other Spending” for states goes negative in the out years, because the rate of increase in individual programs presently exceeds the rate of increase in overall spending. That is what you call a “budget crisis.”

Interpolated Spending

There is published data available from government sources for all years from 1952 to the present. Between 1932 and 1950 the data in “Bicentennial Edition: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970” is tabulated only for even numbered years. Before 1932 there is data given only for 1902, 1913, 1922, and 1927. For the missing years we have interpolated data from the information given in the published years.